Sunday, April 20, 2008

S&P 500 Index 4/20/2008

When looking at a chart of the S&P 500 Index with respect to the opening range targets, the market might have some more room to go before testing the lower boundary of the 2008 opening range. This level is roughly 1411.19. The chart below shows the S&P 500 Index with opening range and extensions. This chart also has the daily pivot(1385.08) and the rolling three day pivot(1374.42) in the middle pane. It is helpful to watch the difference between these two numbers in the coming days. As the difference between the two contracts, it will signal the steam in this rally is fading.

S&P 500 Index (click to enlarge)

The chart below is of the S&P 500 Index and the lower pane compares the percentage of stocks trading above their 40 period moving average(green line) and the percentage trading above their 200 period moving average(red line).

The green line (% > 40ma) is starting to get to an area that could be looked at as overbought. Unless the red line (%>200ma) starts to confirm the move of the green line, a re-trace of the current rally will be in order with time of consolidation.

S&P 500 % Above Moving Average (click to enlarge)

This third chart of the S&P 500 shows index versus the moving average for the advance-decline line. This moving average shows that fewer stocks are carrying the load in this rally. This does not mean in itself that the rally is weak, but it means it is important to watch for these leaders as we approach the 1411 level. Energy stocks along with Google have been the bright spots.

S&P 500 Index AdvDec Moving Average (click to enlarge)

This last chart shows the S&P 500 in relation to its longterm and medium term linear regression lines with standard deviation extensions. The market is at a juncture where the next few days are critical. Currently prices are at the upper edge of the medium term channel. This could prove to be an area to take profits until the market makes a higher move followed with a pull back to establish a new short term channel.

S&P 500 Index Linear Regressions (click to enlarge)

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