Thursday, December 15, 2011

Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free

Often, basics is all you need to know.

December 15, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

Understand the basics of the subject matter, break it down to its smallest parts -- and you've laid a good foundation for proper application of... well, anything, really. That's what we had in mind when we put together our free 10-lesson online Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial, based largely on Robert Prechter's classic "Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior." Here's an excerpt:


Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it. ...the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.

The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure.

These properties not only forewarn the analyst about what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine one's present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations.

As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. If the analyst recognizes the character of a single wave, he can often correctly interpret the complexities of the larger pattern.

The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market... These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward.

1) First waves -- ...about half of first waves are part of the "basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell on," and they take advantage of it. The other half of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced.


Read the rest of this 10-lesson Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial online now, free!

Here's what you'll learn:

* What the basic Elliott wave progression looks like
* Difference between impulsive and corrective waves
* How to estimate the length of waves
* How Fibonacci numbers fit into wave analysis
* Practical application tips for the method
* And More

Keep reading this free tutorial today.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Agilent Technologies Triangle Pattern

The Light Bulb Moment for the Eurozone

EWI's free EU debt report sheds some light on what's in store

December 8, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

How many European bankers does it take to change a light bulb? That's a joke in search of an answer, but EWI's European analyst Brian Whitmer explained five months ago that the "light bulb moment" was coming -- that's the time when most people would clearly recognize the severity of the European debt crisis. He offered this spot-on analysis back in July 2011, before the larger world came to know recently how bad things really are in the eurozone.

This chart shows how markets in Greece, Ireland and Portugal have behaved over the past five years, including the bailouts. Whitmer says that the turmoil in Greece is due mostly to both social mood and Greek markets having plummeted for more than a year and a half, while the larger EU stock markets have levitated. Once they turn down, he forecasts that what you saw in Greece will be replayed in the eurozone.

To help his subscribers see the light and get the full picture, he compared EU member nations under financial scrutiny to those that are usually viewed as being safe -- and showed that they weren't as safe as most people thought.

Specifically, Whitmer warned that the debt per person in Greece looked eerily similar to the debt per person in highly regarded countries, such as Germany and France -- and even to non-eurozone countries, such as the United Kingdom.

In 2010, Britain proposed a five-year, 25% budget reduction that affects nearly every area of the government. While it sounds like a drastic measure, it has played out differently during the past year. According to member of European Parliament Daniel Hannan, statistics show that not only is government spending and borrowing significantly higher than this time last year, but taxes, too, are way up. Whitmer notes that the budget cuts rely heavily on the future and lack near-term bite.

Why has the worst of Europe's violence taken place on the streets of Athens rather than London? Athenians did not suddenly grow more violent in 2011. What has changed since 2007 is their stock market. Whitmer's words of advice: "...should your country's stock market begin to look like Greece's, watch out. Trouble will be on the way."

European Financial Forecast Editor Brian Whitmer has covered Europe's debt crisis since March 2010 -- and his forecasts kept subscribers ahead of the downward spiral every step of the way. Read more of his analysis in our free report, "The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments."

View Your Free Report

Friday, December 2, 2011

Download Your Free Price Bars and Chart Patterns Trading eBook

When you look at a price chart, what do you see? A bunch of ticks, some ups and downs, perhaps a pattern? Do you see the trend, support and resistance levels, and who's in charge of the market -- the bulls or the bears?

Learn to spot these critical elements and more in Elliott Wave International's free eBook, Learn to Identify High Probability Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns.

In this free 14-page eBook, EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy will teach you how to look at your charts and find critical support and resistance levels. Even more importantly, you'll learn what these levels mean to your trading positions and stop levels.

You will learn how to look at the simplest part of the chart -- the price bar -- so that you can determine the next most likely market move.

Jeffrey pulls from over 15 years of experience analyzing and trading the markets, to teach you the very same techniques that helped him become a successful trader.

Learn how to identify trading opportunities using price bars and chart patterns.

Download your free 14-page eBook today.
(Hurry -- offer expires December 19!)

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Geron Corporation

This an ugly chart of Geron Corporation. Geron (GERN)is a biotech company that has products in current clinical trials that target various types of cancer. What is interesting about one of the drugs that they are working on is they are binding chemotherapy agents to proteins to allow them to cross the blood-brain-barrier(GRN1005). Having recently helped a family member battle cancer, one of the worst scenarios is when a cancer tumor metastasizes to the brain. Currently the treatment for this is radiation. This treatment is brutal, and usually coincides with chemotherapy for treatment for the primary tumor site. This one-two punch is usually a really heavy burden on the patient, and really sucks what ever energy they have. Brain radiation is especially tough, the fatigue and disorientation can make life significantly challenging even when the treatment is working. The idea of having a drug that could cross the blood-brain-barrier could be a significant breakthrough,as treatment could coincide with regular chemotherapy without needing the daily brain radiation treatments.

The active chemotherapy agent in GRN1005 is Paclitaxel. This is an already known agent that is used, so the known side effects are known to oncology field. Using this drug would not be like a total unknown, as it is widely used without the peptide that would allow it to cross the blood-brain-barrier. A drug my family member was on that really had positive results was Abraxane. This was Paclitaxel bound to the human protein Albumin. This Abraxan drug was developed by Abraxis Bioscience which was taken over by Celgene.

Does all of this mean Geron is going to be higher next week? No it doesn't. Its products are currently in phase 2 trials, so it will be more than a couple years before these drugs are on the market. Recently the company was in the news for leaving the stemcell/spinal injury trials it was doing. This was not as big a market as the oncology field. They decided to focus their resources on its oncology product development. Times are tough and focusing on a more defined profitable market was needed to keep the company going in a healthy manner.

This is a link to a description of their other oncology products in development.

List of Drugs in Development(GRNOPC1 discontinued)



Product Product Description Disease Treatment Development Stage Patient Enrollment Status


Imetelstat Telomerase Inhibitor Non-Small Cell Lung Phase 2 Trial Open


(GRN163L) Cancer (NSCLC)


Breast Cancer Phase 2 Trial Open


Multiple Myeloma Phase 2 Trial Open


Essential Phase 2 Trial Open




GRN1005 Peptide-Conjugated Brain Metastases from Phase 2 Trial Planned to open in


Paclitaxel Breast Cancer fourth quarter 2011


Brain Metastases from Phase 2 Trial Planned to open in


NSCLC fourth quarter 2011


GRNOPC1 Oligodendrocyte Spinal Cord Injury Phase 1 Trial Open


Progenitor Cells

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1915-2011

This is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1915 through current 2011. The line in the center of the chart represents the consolidation period after the bull market move from 1949 to 1965. This 16 year rally was followed by consolidation from 1965 through 1983. We are now in a similar pattern following the bull market move from 1983 through 1999. This 16 year rally will be followed by further consolidation. It will take time for the ebb and flow of psychological highs and lows to work out before a new bull move MIGHT happen. If the consolidation lasts like the one before it, this would make a possible time frame for a break out to happen in 2015-2017.

This doesn't mean it is impossible to make money in the market. It just means that it is not a market where tons of stocks are breaking out and you can just buy anything. It is a range bound market that requires more action and better research to make decent returns. Once a range is defined, it can be traded until it proves it is broken. In the 1970s the market was not great, but many fortunes and "market wizards" were made them. It just requires a different discipline that trading in bull markets.

Free 2012 Elliott Wave Investment Report

There are just a few days left to get your free report, The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012.

Every year or two Elliott Wave International (EWI) publishes analysis with a message so critical that they decide to share it, FREE.

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You get a review of ALL of the charts and ALL of the indicators that EWI has been watching over the past year or so -- to provide you the full impact of what they are seeing. The entire picture will show you a rather radical conclusion about the future of stock prices.

Subscribers pay up to $59/month for this critical analysis, but until November 30 you can read it free.

Don't delay! "Most Important 2012" is only available for a few more days.

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Thursday, October 6, 2011

Trading with Trendlines

Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave International (EWI) has just released a free 14-page trading eBook: Trading the Line – 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions, by Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy.

Trendlines are one of the first technical methods most traders learn. Unfortunately, too many traders discard this simplest of all techniques for more advanced methods.

Yet with the right education you will find that a simple line can tell you a world of information about a market. In this free eBook, Jeffrey Kennedy will show you five ways to draw trendlines that will help you to identify support and resistance, the end of a move, and changes in trend – critical information for your trading success.

Jeffrey’s trading eBooks have been downloaded thousands of times because he teaches you in a way that enables you to immediately apply the method to the markets you follow. And what’s even better, he believes in the methods he teaches and uses them each and every day in his trading and analysis.

Learn 5 ways to apply trendlines to your trading and investing.

Download Your Free eBook Now.

(Hurry! This eBook offer is only available through October 17.)

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Real Waves Vs Elliott Waves

The waves in the S&P 500 should be getting bigger soon, and far harder to catch.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Free Investment Book : Elliott Wave Principle

Classic Investment Book, Elliott Wave Principle, Now Available Free:
Robert Prechter has just released a complimentary online edition of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. All 248-pages of this classic investment book can be on your screen in just minutes. Elliott Wave Principle will teach you the 13 waves that can occur in the charts of the financial markets, the basics of counting waves, and the simple rules and guidelines that will help you to apply Elliott Wave for yourself. You'll learn the method successful investors have used for decades. Access Your Free Copy of Elliott Wave Principle, Now.

Monday, February 7, 2011

On the Docket: The Case Against Diversification

Just because investment banks and stock brokerages say you should diversify doesn't make it true

February 7, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

Talk with an investment advisor, and what's the first piece of advice you will hear? Diversify your portfolio. The case for diversification is repeated so often that it's come to be thought of as an indisputable rule. Hardly anyone makes the case against diversifying your portfolio. But because we believe that too much liquidity has made all markets act similar to one another, we make that case. Heresy? Not at all. Just because investment banks and stock brokerages say you should diversify doesn't make it true. After all, their analysts nearly always say that the markets look bullish and that people should buy more now. For a breath of fresh air on this subject, read what Bob Prechter thinks about diversification.

* * * * *

Excerpt taken from Prechter's Perspective, originally published 2002, re-published 2004

Question: In recent years, mainstream experts have made the ideas of “buy and hold” and diversification almost synonymous with investing. What about diversification? Now it is nearly universally held that risk is reduced through acquisition of a broad-based portfolio of any imaginable investment category. Where do you stand on this idea?

Bob Prechter: Diversification for its own sake means you don’t know what you’re doing. If that is true, you might as well hold Treasury bills or a savings account. My opinion on this question is black and white, because the whole purpose of being a market speculator is to identify trends and make money with them. The proper approach is to take everything you can out of anticipated trends, using indicators that help you do that. Those times you make a mistake will be made up many times over by the successful investments you make. Some people say that is the purpose of diversification, that the winners will overcome the losers. But that stance requires the opinion that most investment vehicles ultimately go up from any entry point. That is not true, and is an opinion typically held late in a period when it has been true. So ironically, poor timing is often the thing that kills people who claim to ignore timing.

Sometimes the correct approach will lead to a diversified portfolio. There are times I have been long U.S. stocks, short bonds, short the Nikkei, and long something else. Other times, I’ve kept a very concentrated market position. My advice from mid-1984 to October 2, 1987, for instance, was to remain 100% invested in the U.S. stock market. During the bull market, I raised the stop-loss at each point along the wave structure where I could identify definite points of support. If I was wrong, investors would have been out of their positions. The potential was five times greater on the upside than the risk was on the downside, and five times greater in the stock market than any other area. Twice recently, in 1993 and 1995, I have had big positions in precious metals mining stocks when they appeared to me to be the only game in town. In 1993, it worked great, and they gained 100% in ten months. Diversification would have eliminated the profit. And every so often, an across-the-board deflation smashes all investments at once, and the person who has all his eggs in one basket, in this case cash, stays whole while everyone else gets killed.

* * * * *

Excerpt from The Elliott Wave Theorist, April 29, 1994

It is repeated daily that “global diversification” is self evidently an intelligent approach to investing. In brief, goes the line, an investor should not restrict himself to domestic stocks and bonds but also buy stocks and bonds of as many other countries as possible to “spread the risk” and ensure safety. Diversification is a tactic always touted at the end of global bull markets. Without years of a bull market to provide psychological comfort, this apparently self evident truth would not even be considered. No one was making this case at the 1974 low. During the craze for collectible coins, were you helped in owning rare coins of England, Spain, Japan and Malaysia? Or were you that much more hopelessly stuck when the bear market hit?

The Elliott Wave Theorist's position has been that successful investing requires one thing: anticipating successful investments, which requires that one must have a method of choosing them. Sometimes that means holding many investments, sometimes few. Recommending diversification so that novices can reduce risk is like recommending that novice skydivers strap a pillow to their backsides to “reduce risk.” Wouldn’t it be more helpful to advise them to avoid skydiving until they have learned all about it? Novices should not be investing; they should be saving, which means acting to protect their principal, not to generate a return when they don’t know how.

For the knowledgeable investor, diversification for its own sake merely reduces profits. Therefore, anyone championing investment diversification for the sake of safety and no other reason has no method for choosing investments, no method of forming a market opinion, and should not be in the money management business. Ironically yet necessarily given today’s conviction about diversification, the deflationary trend that will soon become monolithic will devastate nearly all financial assets except cash. If you want to diversify, buy some 6-month Treasury bills along with your 3-month ones.

Want More Reasons Why Diversification Should be Diverted from your Portfolio? Get our FREE report that explains the holes in the diversification argument. All you have to do is sign up as one of our Club EWI members. It's free, and it will give you access to more than this diversification report. Follow this link to instantly download this special free report, Death to Diversification – What it Means for Your Investment Strategy.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline On the Docket: The Case Against Diversification. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.