Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1915-2011

This is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1915 through current 2011. The line in the center of the chart represents the consolidation period after the bull market move from 1949 to 1965. This 16 year rally was followed by consolidation from 1965 through 1983. We are now in a similar pattern following the bull market move from 1983 through 1999. This 16 year rally will be followed by further consolidation. It will take time for the ebb and flow of psychological highs and lows to work out before a new bull move MIGHT happen. If the consolidation lasts like the one before it, this would make a possible time frame for a break out to happen in 2015-2017.

This doesn't mean it is impossible to make money in the market. It just means that it is not a market where tons of stocks are breaking out and you can just buy anything. It is a range bound market that requires more action and better research to make decent returns. Once a range is defined, it can be traded until it proves it is broken. In the 1970s the market was not great, but many fortunes and "market wizards" were made them. It just requires a different discipline that trading in bull markets.

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