Tuesday, September 4, 2007

New Month 200 Day Moving Average vs 50 Day Moving Average

The chart below(click to enlarge) shows the S&P 500 with levels based on the opening range of the year shown by the red dashed lines. The market is currently above the 200day moving average but is having trouble getting through the 50day moving average(green line). This area around the 50day moving average also coincides with the 1476.76 level based on the opening range. It is important to watch the volume and the advance/decline relationships to get a gauge of the market health at this level. The top pane in this chart shows the advance/decline line moving average.

The advance/decline moving average has moved significantly higher that the price of the market would lead us to believe. This has occurred on lower volume. This is mostly due to the end of a typical vacation month for many market participants. The next two weeks should be a key time. Watch the volume on up days versus the volume on down days to gain an edge.

The chart below is of the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40day moving averages. This indicator reached an extreme low and has rebounded nicely, but again it is important to watch for continuation. The market is still below its own 40day moving average. Large volume on an up day of more than 1.5% taking us over the 50day moving average would change things to a greater bullish tone.

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