Updated Channel Chart

While trading 1 point trades with some other bored out of their mind trader, I figured I would post another channel chart. I am still 90% short trader, but I also realize that this is not going to work until most likely after the first of the new year. I for now am trading less size and being a blind bull like I was in 2000! It feels the same in many ways. I will let everyone know when I buy and expensive watch, because that is what evidently killed the nasdaq back then. Sorry SUNW and EXDS!

Climbing Back Into The Channel

I should have titled this post "He Ain't Heavy He Is My Brother", but I doubt anyone would even know that song! This market is trading like an ADR from back in the 1990s, but it continues to go higher.

The end of year is typically pretty thin trading, and it is clear so far there is not much interest in selling much if anything. Trust my I have fought the tape enough and it is always work just to scratch back to even. However, the last could days there has not been much of a counter move to recover from being on the wrong side. Large gap ups and holds just tend to finish hear the high and cause the same pain for anyone who is short. If you are short, you are right to be short! You are just not right, right now. I read a post by a trader who said they were making great money in the morning only to give it back and carry losing trades through the lunch out in hopes of recovering in the afternoon. Make money, walk away, come back with 90 minutes left and see if you can add to it. This current pattern could continue until year end. There are big up days, but not a lot of two sided trading. You see the news and the market up 200 points, it doesn't mean it was easy trading. If you came in long, I have been in your shoes. You should be rewarded!

Blow Off Tops

This is an intraday chart of the emini S&P500 index. The action at the end of the day is so similar to the market back in 2000.  Finishing at the highs looks good and makes the news, but what actually caused it to finish at the high? In a thin market approaching new highs every week, it doesn't take much for everyone to step out of the way...and it goes higher. This is why the late stages of bull markets often are very profitable and go higher than people think is rational.

The market quickly got above the opening range but the trade was choppy action made it tough to get to that first target of 3138.75. Once there, it failed to hold and then it went down and tested the top of the opening range twice at 3134.25. Then the once it was clear it wasn't going lower, the gunning for the high started. It was clear it was going there, but it wasn't easy to hold once back above 3138.75. 

Any guesses on low volume for the rest of the holiday week? It will not take much to go higher.

My Level To Watch S&P 500

I have gone back to some old patters and charts I use to work with. I don't know why I got away from them. Today's headline was Bridgewater Associates has an option position on the market. Is that really news? If this put position is 1.5 billion and they have 150 billion under management, is that really news? I would think that would have every day. If I had 150 billion, well I am sure I could turn it into 100 billion in not time!

Reading that article brought me back to looking at potential levels to trade off of, and what levels might hold some clues for where to guess things could go next spring.

Both of these charts are the S&P 500 Index. The horizontal blue lines are levels projected off of the opening range of the year. The number currently under scrutiny is 3102.73. Trying to short above this number is going to be met with buying. It is not worth fighting the noise in this area if you think things are overvalued and going lower. The distance between lines in 94.11 points. So once under 3102.73 there is enough of a move to make some decent trades. The Dow 30 is in a similar situation. I don't really follow the Dow 30, the number in the Dow that correspond is 27,919.60. So the DOW is a safer short, but with those 30 stocks, it only needs one of them to push through area. HD was a weak stock recently. No telling what next week's news will hold.

These are the levels I am watching. Is anybody watching anything better? I sure hope so.

Trading One Pointers or Building a Position

Is it even worth trading when in the opening range? Is it worth fading a move to the top of the range and playing it failing back to the middle, or shorting hoping every long gives up and it goes back to the lows? Today it went up within 2pts of the high of the opening range before going down to test the bottom and break through to the 1099-1998.50. It didn't last but a bar and it returned right back to 3104 area. Thanks for playing. 

The China trade deal is definitely part of the trade. Congress passing a bill putting conditions on China in Hong Kong isn't helping matters. There is also news of two U.S. Navy ships reminding China that we are around the area too. Oh, and the impeachment drams, and the Democrats deciding on who will take on Trump. Lately it seems like programs are trading news, and nothing else. Until then any down move once it stops is met by strong buying and some days that is just enough to make shorting a disaster. Too much of the Fed in the market. It is a one side trade...for now. Fighting the tape everyday makes for a long week.

Sorry for the crappy charts, just for my own thought purposes.

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures Opening Range Extension Chart

This is a 2013 chart of the E-Mini S&P 500 contract showing opening range extensions from Jan. 1, 2013.

We touched the 1792.25 level overnight and some technical indicators are showing some divergence with this new high. That being said, there seems to be little interest in selling.

Will update other charts over the weekend.

How to Identify Turning Points in Your Charts Using Fibonacci

How to Identify Turning Points in Your Charts Using Fibonacci

 

By Elliott Wave International

In this trading lesson, Elliott Wave International's Jeffrey Kennedy shows you how you can use Fibonacci to forecast potential turning points in your charts. You'll learn the most common Fibonacci retracements and where to expect them in your charts. At the end of the lesson, learn how you can get a 14-page Fibonacci eBook, free!

                 

---

                  The primary Fibonacci ratios that I use in identifying wave retracements are .236, .382, .500, .618 and .786. Some of you might say that .500 and .786 are not Fibonacci ratios; well, it's all in the math. If you divide the second month of Leonardo's rabbit example by the third month, the answer is .500, 1 divided by 2; .786 is simply the square root of .618.

                  There are many different Fibonacci ratios used to determine retracement levels. The most common are .382 and .618.

                  The accompanying charts also demonstrate the relevance of .236, .382, .500 .618 and .786. It's worth noting that Fibonacci retracements can be used on any time frame to identify potential reversal points. An important aspect to remember is that a Fibonacci retracement of a previous wave on a weekly chart is more significant than what you would find on a 60-minute chart.

                  With five chances, there are not many things I couldn't accomplish. Likewise, with five retracement levels, there won't be many pullbacks that I'll miss. So how do you use Fibonacci retracements in the real world, when you're trading? Do you buy or sell a .382 retracement or wait for a test of the .618 level, only to realize that prices reversed at the .500 level?

                 

                  The Elliott Wave Principle provides us with a framework that allows us to focus on certain levels at certain times. For example, the most common retracements for waves two, B and X are .500 or .618 of the previous wave. Wave four typically ends at or near a .382 retracement of the prior third wave that it is correcting.

                 

                  In addition to the above guidelines, I have come up with a few of my own over the past 10 years.

                  The first is that the best third waves originate from deep second waves. In the wave two position, I like to see a test of the .618 retracement of wave one or even .786. Chances are that a shallower wave two is actually a B or an X wave. In the fourth-wave position, I find the most common Fibonacci retracements to be .382 or .500. On occasion, you will see wave four retrace .618 of wave three. However, when this occurs, it is often sharp and quickly reversed.

                  My rule of thumb for fourth waves is that whatever is done in price, won't be done in time. What I mean by this is that if wave four is time-consuming, the relevant Fibonacci retracement is usually shallow, .236 or .382. For example, in a contracting triangle where prices seem to chop around forever, wave e of the pattern will end at or near a .236 or .382 retracement of wave three. When wave four is proportional in time to the first three waves, I find the .500 retracement significant. A fourth wave that consumes less time than wave two will often test the .618 retracement of wave three and suggests that more players are entering the market, as evidenced by the price volatility. And finally, in a fast market, like a "third of a third wave," you'll find that retracements are shallow, .236 or .382.

                  In closing, there are two things I would like to mention. First, in each of the accompanying examples, you'll notice that retracement levels repeat. Within the decline from the high in July Sugar (first chart), each countertrend move was a .618 retracement of the previous wave. The second chart demonstrates the same tendency with the .786 retracement. This event is common and is caused by the fractal nature of the markets.

                  Second, Fibonacci retracements identify high probability targets for the termination of a wave; they do not represent an absolute must-hold level. So when using Fibonacci retracements, don't be surprised to see prices reverse a few ticks above or below a Fibonacci target. This occurs because other traders are viewing the same levels and trade accordingly. Fibonacci retracements help to focus your attention on a specific price level at a specific time; how prices react at that point determines the significance of the level.

                 

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Learn How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading                         If you'd like to learn more about Fibonacci and how to apply it to your trading strategy, download the 14-page free eBook, How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading.                         EWI Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman explains:                                                 The Golden Spiral, the Golden Ratio, and the Golden Section                         How to use Fibonacci Ratios/Multiples in forecasting                         How to identify market targets and turning points in the markets you trade                         And more!                         See how easy it is to use Fibonacci in your trading. Download your free eBook today >>

                           

                           

This
                            article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and
                            was originally published under the headline How to Identify Turning Points in Your Charts Using Fibonacci.
                            EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff
                            of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician
                            Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to
                            institutional and private investors around the world.

                           

                           

High Frequency Trading Documentary : The Wall Street Code

This is an incredibly well done piece of the inner workings of order flow and how executions take place today. This is a far cry from the day when stocks were traded via a human specialist and there was often 1/4pt or 1/2 pt spreads. This shows how the current system is rigged and engineered. It is really eye opening and shows the courage of one man, Haim Bodek, opening up the unsavory inter-workings of High Frequency Trading.

 The Wall Street Code (Marije Meerman, VPRO)

How to Find Trading Opportunities in ANY Market Using Candlesticks (Video)

 

By Elliott Wave International

Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy is the editor of our Elliott Wave Junctures educational service and is one of our most popular instructors. Jeffrey's primary analytical method is the Elliott Wave Principle, but he also uses several other technical tools to supplement his analysis. In today's lesson, Jeffrey shows you how to use candlestick patterns to identify opportunities.

                  You can apply these methods across any market and any time frame.

                 

---

                  If you think you need years of experience to identify a high probability trade setup -- you're wrong.

                  To prove my point, let's examine three price charts using only a few popular Japanese Candlestick patterns and a single simple moving average (SMA).

                  Japanese Candlestick analysis was introduced to the West by Steve Nison. The information contained in a candlestick chart is the same that is contained in an open-high-low-close chart, except that the data is presented differently using "shadows" and "real bodies."

                  Moreover, these candlesticks form patterns which are important to traders. If you would like to learn more about candlesticks, I highly recommend the book Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by Steve Nison.

                  How do two tools -- candlesticks and a 20-period SMA -- identify high probability trade setups?

                  The answer is simple in that you use the 20-period SMA to identify the trend and then focus your attention on the appropriate candlestick patterns. If the trend is up, as defined by the slope of the 20-period SMA, focus your attention on bullish engulfing patterns, piercing lines and morning stars. If the trend is down, as defined by the slope of the 20-period SMA, focus your attention on bearish engulfing patterns, dark cloud cover patterns and evening stars.

                  Watch this 4-minute video where I explain more:

                 

                 

---

                           
                           
                           
                           

Learn How to Apply Some of the Most Powerful Technical Methods to Your Trading                         Get 10 additional free lessons just like this one to help you learn to apply powerful technical methods to your trading. In this 10-lesson series, EWI analyst Jeffrey Kennedy shows how to use Elliott Wave and supporting methods such as candlesticks, RSI and moving averages to improve your ability to spot and act on opportunities in your charts.

Get your 10 free lessons now >>

                           
                           
                           

                           

This
                            article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and
                            was originally published under the headline How to Find Trading Opportunities in ANY Market Using Candlesticks (Video).
                            EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff
                            of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician
                            Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to
                            institutional and private investors around the world.

                           

                           

Bonds, S&P 500 Flashback

I was recently reading some articles that seemed to tap into some of the fear that is underlying stock prices. I don't know if stocks are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced, but it all doesn't really matter. What is important is try to feel out and look at the balance between the HOPE that prices will go higher, and the FEAR that they have had a nice run and need to consolidate or correct.

In a test tube when the S&P 500 was at 666 it would make sense that it was there because of fearful required liquidation selling and that prices would not go to zero. That isn't want happens, it is the place when fear is the greatest and it feels like things might go to zero even though they never will. Also in a perfect test tube environment people that bought at the low area would have HOPE that prices would go higher, but as the market starts to recover instead of hope, FEAR comes in that prices might return and go lower.

Now after a strong recovering in the market, HOPE is all over and fear is gone. "Buy the pull backs" and other such systems are in vogue as long as the trend holds, but what happens when the HOPE/FEAR balances starts to change. Will it be an orderly sell off or will it it be a flash crash that recovers 30 minutes after it happens? Will a correction even happen?

Below are a couple charts from 1987 that show the S&P 500 and bond yields leading up to and during that crash.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart

S&P500 2013

The horizontal lines are extensions off of the opening range of the beginning of the year. I use them as areas to trade off of, but use at your own discretion.

10 Year Treasury Futures.

Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free

Often, basics is all you need to know.

December 15, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

Understand the basics of the subject matter, break it down to its smallest parts -- and you've laid a good foundation for proper application of... well, anything, really. That's what we had in mind when we put together our free 10-lesson online Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial, based largely on Robert Prechter's classic "Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior." Here's an excerpt:

--------------------------------------------

Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it. ...the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.

The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure.

These properties not only forewarn the analyst about what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine one's present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations.

As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. If the analyst recognizes the character of a single wave, he can often correctly interpret the complexities of the larger pattern.

The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market... These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward.


1) First waves -- ...about half of first waves are part of the "basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell on," and they take advantage of it. The other half of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced.

-----------------------------------------


Read the rest of this 10-lesson Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial online now, free!

Here's what you'll learn:

* What the basic Elliott wave progression looks like
* Difference between impulsive and corrective waves
* How to estimate the length of waves
* How Fibonacci numbers fit into wave analysis
* Practical application tips for the method
* And More

Keep reading this free tutorial today.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Agilent Technologies Triangle Pattern

The Light Bulb Moment for the Eurozone

EWI's free EU debt report sheds some light on what's in store

December 8, 2011

By Elliott Wave International


How many European bankers does it take to change a light bulb? That's a joke in search of an answer, but EWI's European analyst Brian Whitmer explained five months ago that the "light bulb moment" was coming -- that's the time when most people would clearly recognize the severity of the European debt crisis. He offered this spot-on analysis back in July 2011, before the larger world came to know recently how bad things really are in the eurozone.

This chart shows how markets in Greece, Ireland and Portugal have behaved over the past five years, including the bailouts. Whitmer says that the turmoil in Greece is due mostly to both social mood and Greek markets having plummeted for more than a year and a half, while the larger EU stock markets have levitated. Once they turn down, he forecasts that what you saw in Greece will be replayed in the eurozone.

To help his subscribers see the light and get the full picture, he compared EU member nations under financial scrutiny to those that are usually viewed as being safe -- and showed that they weren't as safe as most people thought.

Specifically, Whitmer warned that the debt per person in Greece looked eerily similar to the debt per person in highly regarded countries, such as Germany and France -- and even to non-eurozone countries, such as the United Kingdom.

In 2010, Britain proposed a five-year, 25% budget reduction that affects nearly every area of the government. While it sounds like a drastic measure, it has played out differently during the past year. According to member of European Parliament Daniel Hannan, statistics show that not only is government spending and borrowing significantly higher than this time last year, but taxes, too, are way up. Whitmer notes that the budget cuts rely heavily on the future and lack near-term bite.

Why has the worst of Europe's violence taken place on the streets of Athens rather than London? Athenians did not suddenly grow more violent in 2011. What has changed since 2007 is their stock market. Whitmer's words of advice: "...should your country's stock market begin to look like Greece's, watch out. Trouble will be on the way."

European Financial Forecast Editor Brian Whitmer has covered Europe's debt crisis since March 2010 -- and his forecasts kept subscribers ahead of the downward spiral every step of the way. Read more of his analysis in our free report, "The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments."

View Your Free Report

Download Your Free Price Bars and Chart Patterns Trading eBook

When you look at a price chart, what do you see? A bunch of ticks, some ups and downs, perhaps a pattern? Do you see the trend, support and resistance levels, and who's in charge of the market -- the bulls or the bears?

Learn to spot these critical elements and more in Elliott Wave International's free eBook, Learn to Identify High Probability Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns.

In this free 14-page eBook, EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy will teach you how to look at your charts and find critical support and resistance levels. Even more importantly, you'll learn what these levels mean to your trading positions and stop levels.

You will learn how to look at the simplest part of the chart -- the price bar -- so that you can determine the next most likely market move.

Jeffrey pulls from over 15 years of experience analyzing and trading the markets, to teach you the very same techniques that helped him become a successful trader.

Learn how to identify trading opportunities using price bars and chart patterns.

Download your free 14-page eBook today.
(Hurry -- offer expires December 19!)

Geron Corporation

This an ugly chart of Geron Corporation. Geron (GERN)is a biotech company that has products in current clinical trials that target various types of cancer. What is interesting about one of the drugs that they are working on is they are binding chemotherapy agents to proteins to allow them to cross the blood-brain-barrier(GRN1005). Having recently helped a family member battle cancer, one of the worst scenarios is when a cancer tumor metastasizes to the brain. Currently the treatment for this is radiation. This treatment is brutal, and usually coincides with chemotherapy for treatment for the primary tumor site. This one-two punch is usually a really heavy burden on the patient, and really sucks what ever energy they have. Brain radiation is especially tough, the fatigue and disorientation can make life significantly challenging even when the treatment is working. The idea of having a drug that could cross the blood-brain-barrier could be a significant breakthrough,as treatment could coincide with regular chemotherapy without needing the daily brain radiation treatments.

The active chemotherapy agent in GRN1005 is Paclitaxel. This is an already known agent that is used, so the known side effects are known to oncology field. Using this drug would not be like a total unknown, as it is widely used without the peptide that would allow it to cross the blood-brain-barrier. A drug my family member was on that really had positive results was Abraxane. This was Paclitaxel bound to the human protein Albumin. This Abraxan drug was developed by Abraxis Bioscience which was taken over by Celgene.

Does all of this mean Geron is going to be higher next week? No it doesn't. Its products are currently in phase 2 trials, so it will be more than a couple years before these drugs are on the market. Recently the company was in the news for leaving the stemcell/spinal injury trials it was doing. This was not as big a market as the oncology field. They decided to focus their resources on its oncology product development. Times are tough and focusing on a more defined profitable market was needed to keep the company going in a healthy manner.

This is a link to a description of their other oncology products in development.




List of Drugs in Development(GRNOPC1 discontinued)

.
.	Product	Product Description	Disease Treatment	Development Stage	Patient Enrollment Status
.	Imetelstat	Telomerase Inhibitor	Non-Small Cell Lung	Phase 2 Trial	Open
.	(GRN163L)		Cancer (NSCLC)
.			Breast Cancer	Phase 2 Trial	Open
.			Multiple Myeloma	Phase 2 Trial	Open
.			Essential	Phase 2 Trial	Open
.			Thrombocythemia
.	GRN1005	Peptide-Conjugated	Brain Metastases from	Phase 2 Trial	Planned to open in
.		Paclitaxel	Breast Cancer		fourth quarter 2011
.			Brain Metastases from	Phase 2 Trial	Planned to open in
.			NSCLC		fourth quarter 2011
.	GRNOPC1	Oligodendrocyte	Spinal Cord Injury	Phase 1 Trial	Open
.		Progenitor Cells

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1915-2011

This is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1915 through current 2011. The line in the center of the chart represents the consolidation period after the bull market move from 1949 to 1965. This 16 year rally was followed by consolidation from 1965 through 1983. We are now in a similar pattern following the bull market move from 1983 through 1999. This 16 year rally will be followed by further consolidation. It will take time for the ebb and flow of psychological highs and lows to work out before a new bull move MIGHT happen. If the consolidation lasts like the one before it, this would make a possible time frame for a break out to happen in 2015-2017.

This doesn't mean it is impossible to make money in the market. It just means that it is not a market where tons of stocks are breaking out and you can just buy anything. It is a range bound market that requires more action and better research to make decent returns. Once a range is defined, it can be traded until it proves it is broken. In the 1970s the market was not great, but many fortunes and "market wizards" were made them. It just requires a different discipline that trading in bull markets.

Free 2012 Elliott Wave Investment Report

There are just a few days left to get your free report, The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012.

Every year or two Elliott Wave International (EWI) publishes analysis with a message so critical that they decide to share it, FREE.

Now is that time.

The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read for 2012 includes 25 charts and 14 pages of analysis on the markets and economy that you will not find anywhere else.

You get a review of ALL of the charts and ALL of the indicators that EWI has been watching over the past year or so -- to provide you the full impact of what they are seeing. The entire picture will show you a rather radical conclusion about the future of stock prices.

Subscribers pay up to $59/month for this critical analysis, but until November 30 you can read it free.

Don't delay! "Most Important 2012" is only available for a few more days.

Get Your FREE Download: The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read for 2012.

Trading with Trendlines

Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave International (EWI) has just released a free 14-page trading eBook: Trading the Line – 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions, by Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy.

Trendlines are one of the first technical methods most traders learn. Unfortunately, too many traders discard this simplest of all techniques for more advanced methods.

Yet with the right education you will find that a simple line can tell you a world of information about a market. In this free eBook, Jeffrey Kennedy will show you five ways to draw trendlines that will help you to identify support and resistance, the end of a move, and changes in trend – critical information for your trading success.

Jeffrey’s trading eBooks have been downloaded thousands of times because he teaches you in a way that enables you to immediately apply the method to the markets you follow. And what’s even better, he believes in the methods he teaches and uses them each and every day in his trading and analysis.

Learn 5 ways to apply trendlines to your trading and investing.

Download Your Free eBook Now.

(Hurry! This eBook offer is only available through October 17.)

Real Waves Vs Elliott Waves

The waves in the S&P 500 should be getting bigger soon, and far harder to catch.

Free Investment Book : Elliott Wave Principle

Classic Investment Book, Elliott Wave Principle, Now Available Free:
Robert Prechter has just released a complimentary online edition of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. All 248-pages of this classic investment book can be on your screen in just minutes. Elliott Wave Principle will teach you the 13 waves that can occur in the charts of the financial markets, the basics of counting waves, and the simple rules and guidelines that will help you to apply Elliott Wave for yourself. You'll learn the method successful investors have used for decades. Access Your Free Copy of Elliott Wave Principle, Now.