Technical Trading Patterns

Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free

2011-12-15T22:43:00.000-08:00

Often, basics is all you need to know.

December 15, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

Understand the basics of the subject matter, break it down to its smallest parts -- and you've laid a good foundation for proper application of... well, anything, really. That's what we had in mind when we put together our free 10-lesson online Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial, based largely on Robert Prechter's classic "Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior." Here's an excerpt:

--------------------------------------------

Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it. ...the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.

The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure.

These properties not only forewarn the analyst about what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine one's present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations.

As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. If the analyst recognizes the character of a single wave, he can often correctly interpret the complexities of the larger pattern.

The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market... These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward.

1) First waves -- ...about half of first waves are part of the "basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell on," and they take advantage of it. The other half of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced.

-----------------------------------------

Read the rest of this 10-lesson Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial online now, free!

Here's what you'll learn:

* What the basic Elliott wave progression looks like
* Difference between impulsive and corrective waves
* How to estimate the length of waves
* How Fibonacci numbers fit into wave analysis
* Practical application tips for the method
* And More

Keep reading this free tutorial today.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Agilent Technologies Triangle Pattern

2011-12-08T21:37:00.000-08:00

The Light Bulb Moment for the Eurozone

2011-12-08T17:24:00.000-08:00

EWI's free EU debt report sheds some light on what's in store

December 8, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

How many European bankers does it take to change a light bulb? That's a joke in search of an answer, but EWI's European analyst Brian Whitmer explained five months ago that the "light bulb moment" was coming -- that's the time when most people would clearly recognize the severity of the European debt crisis. He offered this spot-on analysis back in July 2011, before the larger world came to know recently how bad things really are in the eurozone.

This chart shows how markets in Greece, Ireland and Portugal have behaved over the past five years, including the bailouts. Whitmer says that the turmoil in Greece is due mostly to both social mood and Greek markets having plummeted for more than a year and a half, while the larger EU stock markets have levitated. Once they turn down, he forecasts that what you saw in Greece will be replayed in the eurozone.

To help his subscribers see the light and get the full picture, he compared EU member nations under financial scrutiny to those that are usually viewed as being safe -- and showed that they weren't as safe as most people thought.

Specifically, Whitmer warned that the debt per person in Greece looked eerily similar to the debt per person in highly regarded countries, such as Germany and France -- and even to non-eurozone countries, such as the United Kingdom.

In 2010, Britain proposed a five-year, 25% budget reduction that affects nearly every area of the government. While it sounds like a drastic measure, it has played out differently during the past year. According to member of European Parliament Daniel Hannan, statistics show that not only is government spending and borrowing significantly higher than this time last year, but taxes, too, are way up. Whitmer notes that the budget cuts rely heavily on the future and lack near-term bite.

Why has the worst of Europe's violence taken place on the streets of Athens rather than London? Athenians did not suddenly grow more violent in 2011. What has changed since 2007 is their stock market. Whitmer's words of advice: "...should your country's stock market begin to look like Greece's, watch out. Trouble will be on the way."

European Financial Forecast Editor Brian Whitmer has covered Europe's debt crisis since March 2010 -- and his forecasts kept subscribers ahead of the downward spiral every step of the way. Read more of his analysis in our free report, "The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments."

View Your Free Report

Download Your Free Price Bars and Chart Patterns Trading eBook

2011-12-02T15:20:00.000-08:00

When you look at a price chart, what do you see? A bunch of ticks, some ups and downs, perhaps a pattern? Do you see the trend, support and resistance levels, and who's in charge of the market -- the bulls or the bears?

Learn to spot these critical elements and more in Elliott Wave International's free eBook, Learn to Identify High Probability Trading Opportunities Using Price Bars and Chart Patterns.

In this free 14-page eBook, EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy will teach you how to look at your charts and find critical support and resistance levels. Even more importantly, you'll learn what these levels mean to your trading positions and stop levels.

You will learn how to look at the simplest part of the chart -- the price bar -- so that you can determine the next most likely market move.

Jeffrey pulls from over 15 years of experience analyzing and trading the markets, to teach you the very same techniques that helped him become a successful trader.

Learn how to identify trading opportunities using price bars and chart patterns.

Download your free 14-page eBook today.
(Hurry -- offer expires December 19!)

Geron Corporation

2011-11-22T18:58:00.000-08:00

This an ugly chart of Geron Corporation. Geron (GERN)is a biotech company that has products in current clinical trials that target various types of cancer. What is interesting about one of the drugs that they are working on is they are binding chemotherapy agents to proteins to allow them to cross the blood-brain-barrier(GRN1005). Having recently helped a family member battle cancer, one of the worst scenarios is when a cancer tumor metastasizes to the brain. Currently the treatment for this is radiation. This treatment is brutal, and usually coincides with chemotherapy for treatment for the primary tumor site. This one-two punch is usually a really heavy burden on the patient, and really sucks what ever energy they have. Brain radiation is especially tough, the fatigue and disorientation can make life significantly challenging even when the treatment is working. The idea of having a drug that could cross the blood-brain-barrier could be a significant breakthrough,as treatment could coincide with regular chemotherapy without needing the daily brain radiation treatments.

The active chemotherapy agent in GRN1005 is Paclitaxel. This is an already known agent that is used, so the known side effects are known to oncology field. Using this drug would not be like a total unknown, as it is widely used without the peptide that would allow it to cross the blood-brain-barrier. A drug my family member was on that really had positive results was Abraxane. This was Paclitaxel bound to the human protein Albumin. This Abraxan drug was developed by Abraxis Bioscience which was taken over by Celgene.

Does all of this mean Geron is going to be higher next week? No it doesn't. Its products are currently in phase 2 trials, so it will be more than a couple years before these drugs are on the market. Recently the company was in the news for leaving the stemcell/spinal injury trials it was doing. This was not as big a market as the oncology field. They decided to focus their resources on its oncology product development. Times are tough and focusing on a more defined profitable market was needed to keep the company going in a healthy manner.

This is a link to a description of their other oncology products in development.

List of Drugs in Development(GRNOPC1 discontinued)


.
.	Product	Product Description	Disease Treatment	Development Stage	Patient Enrollment Status
.	Imetelstat	Telomerase Inhibitor	Non-Small Cell Lung	Phase 2 Trial	Open
.	(GRN163L)		Cancer (NSCLC)
.			Breast Cancer	Phase 2 Trial	Open
.			Multiple Myeloma	Phase 2 Trial	Open
.			Essential	Phase 2 Trial	Open
.			Thrombocythemia
.	GRN1005	Peptide-Conjugated	Brain Metastases from	Phase 2 Trial	Planned to open in
.		Paclitaxel	Breast Cancer		fourth quarter 2011
.			Brain Metastases from	Phase 2 Trial	Planned to open in
.			NSCLC		fourth quarter 2011
.	GRNOPC1	Oligodendrocyte	Spinal Cord Injury	Phase 1 Trial	Open
.		Progenitor Cells

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1915-2011

2011-11-22T18:08:00.000-08:00

This is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1915 through current 2011. The line in the center of the chart represents the consolidation period after the bull market move from 1949 to 1965. This 16 year rally was followed by consolidation from 1965 through 1983. We are now in a similar pattern following the bull market move from 1983 through 1999. This 16 year rally will be followed by further consolidation. It will take time for the ebb and flow of psychological highs and lows to work out before a new bull move MIGHT happen. If the consolidation lasts like the one before it, this would make a possible time frame for a break out to happen in 2015-2017.

This doesn't mean it is impossible to make money in the market. It just means that it is not a market where tons of stocks are breaking out and you can just buy anything. It is a range bound market that requires more action and better research to make decent returns. Once a range is defined, it can be traded until it proves it is broken. In the 1970s the market was not great, but many fortunes and "market wizards" were made them. It just requires a different discipline that trading in bull markets.

Free 2012 Elliott Wave Investment Report

2011-11-22T17:59:00.000-08:00

There are just a few days left to get your free report, The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012.

Every year or two Elliott Wave International (EWI) publishes analysis with a message so critical that they decide to share it, FREE.

Now is that time.

The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read for 2012 includes 25 charts and 14 pages of analysis on the markets and economy that you will not find anywhere else.

You get a review of ALL of the charts and ALL of the indicators that EWI has been watching over the past year or so -- to provide you the full impact of what they are seeing. The entire picture will show you a rather radical conclusion about the future of stock prices.

Subscribers pay up to $59/month for this critical analysis, but until November 30 you can read it free.

Don't delay! "Most Important 2012" is only available for a few more days.

Get Your FREE Download: The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read for 2012.

Trading with Trendlines

2011-10-06T19:40:00.000-07:00

Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave International (EWI) has just released a free 14-page trading eBook: Trading the Line – 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions, by Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy.

Trendlines are one of the first technical methods most traders learn. Unfortunately, too many traders discard this simplest of all techniques for more advanced methods.

Yet with the right education you will find that a simple line can tell you a world of information about a market. In this free eBook, Jeffrey Kennedy will show you five ways to draw trendlines that will help you to identify support and resistance, the end of a move, and changes in trend – critical information for your trading success.

Jeffrey’s trading eBooks have been downloaded thousands of times because he teaches you in a way that enables you to immediately apply the method to the markets you follow. And what’s even better, he believes in the methods he teaches and uses them each and every day in his trading and analysis.

Learn 5 ways to apply trendlines to your trading and investing.

Download Your Free eBook Now.

(Hurry! This eBook offer is only available through October 17.)

Real Waves Vs Elliott Waves

2011-05-29T10:34:00.000-07:00

The waves in the S&P 500 should be getting bigger soon, and far harder to catch.

Free Investment Book : Elliott Wave Principle

2011-02-15T20:34:00.000-08:00

Classic Investment Book, Elliott Wave Principle, Now Available Free:
Robert Prechter has just released a complimentary online edition of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. All 248-pages of this classic investment book can be on your screen in just minutes. Elliott Wave Principle will teach you the 13 waves that can occur in the charts of the financial markets, the basics of counting waves, and the simple rules and guidelines that will help you to apply Elliott Wave for yourself. You'll learn the method successful investors have used for decades. Access Your Free Copy of Elliott Wave Principle, Now.

On the Docket: The Case Against Diversification

2011-02-07T19:26:00.000-08:00

Just because investment banks and stock brokerages say you should diversify doesn't make it true

February 7, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

Talk with an investment advisor, and what's the first piece of advice you will hear? Diversify your portfolio. The case for diversification is repeated so often that it's come to be thought of as an indisputable rule. Hardly anyone makes the case against diversifying your portfolio. But because we believe that too much liquidity has made all markets act similar to one another, we make that case. Heresy? Not at all. Just because investment banks and stock brokerages say you should diversify doesn't make it true. After all, their analysts nearly always say that the markets look bullish and that people should buy more now. For a breath of fresh air on this subject, read what Bob Prechter thinks about diversification.

* * * * *

Excerpt taken from Prechter's Perspective, originally published 2002, re-published 2004

Question: In recent years, mainstream experts have made the ideas of “buy and hold” and diversification almost synonymous with investing. What about diversification? Now it is nearly universally held that risk is reduced through acquisition of a broad-based portfolio of any imaginable investment category. Where do you stand on this idea?

Bob Prechter: Diversification for its own sake means you don’t know what you’re doing. If that is true, you might as well hold Treasury bills or a savings account. My opinion on this question is black and white, because the whole purpose of being a market speculator is to identify trends and make money with them. The proper approach is to take everything you can out of anticipated trends, using indicators that help you do that. Those times you make a mistake will be made up many times over by the successful investments you make. Some people say that is the purpose of diversification, that the winners will overcome the losers. But that stance requires the opinion that most investment vehicles ultimately go up from any entry point. That is not true, and is an opinion typically held late in a period when it has been true. So ironically, poor timing is often the thing that kills people who claim to ignore timing.

Sometimes the correct approach will lead to a diversified portfolio. There are times I have been long U.S. stocks, short bonds, short the Nikkei, and long something else. Other times, I’ve kept a very concentrated market position. My advice from mid-1984 to October 2, 1987, for instance, was to remain 100% invested in the U.S. stock market. During the bull market, I raised the stop-loss at each point along the wave structure where I could identify definite points of support. If I was wrong, investors would have been out of their positions. The potential was five times greater on the upside than the risk was on the downside, and five times greater in the stock market than any other area. Twice recently, in 1993 and 1995, I have had big positions in precious metals mining stocks when they appeared to me to be the only game in town. In 1993, it worked great, and they gained 100% in ten months. Diversification would have eliminated the profit. And every so often, an across-the-board deflation smashes all investments at once, and the person who has all his eggs in one basket, in this case cash, stays whole while everyone else gets killed.

* * * * *

Excerpt from The Elliott Wave Theorist, April 29, 1994

It is repeated daily that “global diversification” is self evidently an intelligent approach to investing. In brief, goes the line, an investor should not restrict himself to domestic stocks and bonds but also buy stocks and bonds of as many other countries as possible to “spread the risk” and ensure safety. Diversification is a tactic always touted at the end of global bull markets. Without years of a bull market to provide psychological comfort, this apparently self evident truth would not even be considered. No one was making this case at the 1974 low. During the craze for collectible coins, were you helped in owning rare coins of England, Spain, Japan and Malaysia? Or were you that much more hopelessly stuck when the bear market hit?

The Elliott Wave Theorist's position has been that successful investing requires one thing: anticipating successful investments, which requires that one must have a method of choosing them. Sometimes that means holding many investments, sometimes few. Recommending diversification so that novices can reduce risk is like recommending that novice skydivers strap a pillow to their backsides to “reduce risk.” Wouldn’t it be more helpful to advise them to avoid skydiving until they have learned all about it? Novices should not be investing; they should be saving, which means acting to protect their principal, not to generate a return when they don’t know how.

For the knowledgeable investor, diversification for its own sake merely reduces profits. Therefore, anyone championing investment diversification for the sake of safety and no other reason has no method for choosing investments, no method of forming a market opinion, and should not be in the money management business. Ironically yet necessarily given today’s conviction about diversification, the deflationary trend that will soon become monolithic will devastate nearly all financial assets except cash. If you want to diversify, buy some 6-month Treasury bills along with your 3-month ones.

Want More Reasons Why Diversification Should be Diverted from your Portfolio? Get our FREE report that explains the holes in the diversification argument. All you have to do is sign up as one of our Club EWI members. It's free, and it will give you access to more than this diversification report. Follow this link to instantly download this special free report, Death to Diversification – What it Means for Your Investment Strategy.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline On the Docket: The Case Against Diversification. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Discover the Dynamics of Using Moving Averages

2010-11-23T23:17:00.000-08:00

How to Spot High-Probability Trading Opportunities
November 23, 2010
By Elliott Wave International

The "moving average" is a technical indicator which has stood the test of time. Nearly 25 years ago, Robert Prechter described this indicator in his famous essay, "What a Trader Really Needs to be Successful." What he said then remains true today:

"...a simple 10-day moving average of the daily advance-decline net, probably the first indicator a stock market technician learns, can be used as a trading tool, if objectively defined rules are created for its use."

Indeed, "objectively defined rules" are vital to the successful use of moving averages. And as you might imagine, advanced rules and guidelines work to the benefit of more advanced technicians.

What is a moving average? As EWI's Jeffrey Kennedy puts it, "A moving average is simply the average value of data over a specified time period, and it is used to figure out whether the price of a stock or commodity is trending up or down."

Jeffrey also says, "One way to think of a moving average is that it's an automated trend line."

A 15-year veteran of technical analysis, Jeffrey wrote "How You Can Find High-Probability Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages."
[Descriptions of the following charts are summaries from that eBook]:

Let's begin with the most commonly-used moving averages among market technicians: the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. These two trend lines often serve as areas of resistance or support.

For example, the chart below shows the circled areas where the 200-period SMA provided resistance in an April-to-May upward move in the DJIA (top circle on the heavy black line), and the 50-period SMA provided support (lower circle on the blue line).

Let's look at another widely used simple moving average which works equally well in commodities, currencies, and stocks: the 13-period SMA.

In the sugar chart below, prices crossed the line (marked by the short, red vertical line), and that cross led to a substantial rally. This chart also shows a whipsaw in the market, which is circled.

effrey's 33-page eBook also reveals a useful tool to help you avoid "whipsaws."

You can read the first two chapters for FREE for a limited time, once you become a Club EWI member.

The first two chapters reveal:

* The Dual Moving Average Cross-Over System
* Moving Average Price Channel System
* Combining the Crossover and Price Channel Techniques

Jeffrey's insights are all about making you a better trader. Remember, the first two eBook chapters are FREE through November 30. So take advantage of this limited time offer by clicking here!

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Discover the Dynamics of Using Moving Averages. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

How to Find Correct Elliott Wave Patterns in Market Charts

2010-11-11T01:08:00.000-08:00

(Note: This video was originally recorded on August 10, 2007)
In this timeless trading lesson on Elliott wave analysis, Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Analyst Jim Martens gives you an answer to a very important question: "If you've identified the wrong Elliott Wave pattern, how do you find the right one?"

NEW! Get 32 pages of FREE practical trading lessons in EWI's new Trader's Classroom eBook.

Download your FREE Trader's Classroom eBook now.
A few minutes of learning not enough? Get 32 pages of free practical lessons in EWI's new Trader's Classroom eBook. Taken from EWI's Jeffrey Kennedy's renowned Trader's Classroom series, this FREE 32-page collection of actionable lessons can help you find opportunities in commodities and other markets with more confidence.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders

2010-11-11T00:45:00.000-08:00

A must-read FREE report for investors in fixed-income markets like Treasury bonds, municipal bonds or high-yield bonds

By Elliott Wave International

Elliott wave analysis can warn you of trend changes when the rest of the investment public least expects a market reversal. With that in mind, we have created a new report for our free Club EWI members: "The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders."

In this free report, you get some of the latest commentary on fixed-income markets adapted from various Elliott Wave International's publications, including 2010 issues of Robert Prechter's monthly Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.

Enjoy this excerpt -- and for details on how to read this important Club EWI report free, today, look below.

------------------------------

The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders
(excerpt)

The Elliott Wave Theorist -- October 2010
(By Robert Prechter, EWI president)

...History shows that investors have been attracted like moths to a flame to four consecutive pyres: the NASDAQ in 2000, real estate in 2006, the blue chips in 2007 and commodities in 2008. Now they are flitting across the veranda to a mesmerizing blue flame: high yield bonds. Bonds pay high yields when the issuers are in deep trouble and cannot otherwise attract investment capital. The public is chasing a large return on capital without considering return of it. ...

he Elliott Wave Financial Forecast -- October 2010
(By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall)

The rise in optimism since early 2009 has allowed corporations to issue the lowest grade debt at a record rate, even more than in the middle of the incredible expanding debt bubble of the mid-2000s. The annual total of $189.9 billion to date is a record, and the entire fourth quarter still lies ahead.

This is a stunning testimony to just how desperate investors are for the returns they grew so accustomed to during the old bull market. The Moody’s BAA-to-Treasury spread (see chart in the free report -- Ed.) has been widening since [April] and has made a series of lower highs in August and again in September. This behavior reveals an emerging preference for perceived safer debt even as junk bond issuance races higher. It is a critical non-confirmation...

Read the rest of this important report online now, free! Here's what else you'll learn:

* How Investors Are Looking Past Red Flags in Muni Market
* What You Should Know About Today's "High-Grade" Bonds
* The Answer To Bond Selection
* MORE

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Prechter On Market Rally

2010-09-29T00:34:00.000-07:00

In the video below, Robert Prechter talks to Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task and Henry Blodget about extreme readings in various indicators that confirm his bear-market forecast.

Video: Prechter On Market Rally

(Note: This interview was originally recorded on September 20, 2010)

In the video below, Robert Prechter talks to Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task and Henry Blodget about extreme readings in various indicators that confirm his bear-market forecast.

Get Up to Speed on Robert Prechter's Latest Perspective — Download this Special FREE Report Now.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Too Big To Fail...Is There Ever An End?

2010-09-03T02:02:00.001-07:00

This is the FDIC's Report on Too Big To Fail...

Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Governmental Rescues Of "Too Big To Fail" Financial Institutions

Efficient Market Hypothesis: R.I.P.

2010-08-19T14:04:00.000-07:00

August 19, 2010
By Elliott Wave International

Of all the belief systems of Wall Street, few can claim the devoted following of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the idea that stock prices adhere to the same laws of supply-and-demand that govern retail products. Once coined the theoretical "Parthenon" of economics, this notion has consistently endured the test of time ----- until now. Academics and advisors across the globe are currently exposing crack after crack in the "Efficient" model so deep as to bring the entire theory crashing to the ground.

"The EMH is not only dead," writes a July 29, 2010 news source. "It's really, most sincerely dead." (Minyanville)

As to what caused the theory's collapse -- one recent business journal offers this insight:

"Financial markets do not operate the same way as those for other goods and services. When the price of a television set or software package goes up, demand for it generally falls. When the prices of a financial asset rises, demand generally rises." (The Economist)

Here's the thing. SIX years ago, Elliott Wave International president Bob Prechter pronounced the exact same finding in his April 2004 Elliott Wave Theorist. (Read that full-length publication today, absolutely free by clicking on the hyperlink) In that groundbreaking report, Bob presented the compelling picture below that shows how investors increase their percentage of stock holdings as prices rise, and decrease them as prices fall:

The next question is why? Answer: Motivation: i.e. the purchase of goods and services is about need; while the purchase of stocks is about desire. Here, Bob Prechter's 2004 Theorist takes the rein:

"The fact is that everyday in finance, investors are uncertain. So they look to the herd for guidance. Because herds are ruled by the majority -- financial market trends are based on little more than the shared mood of investors -- how they feel -- which is the province of the emotional areas of the brain (limbic system), not the rational ones (neocortex)... Buyers, in a rising market appear unconsciously to think, 'The herd must know where the food is. Run with the herd and you will prosper.' Sellers in a falling market appear to unconsciously think, 'The herd must know that there's a lion racing toward us. Run with the herd or you will die.'"

Prechter and contributor Wayne Parker then expanded on his landmark observation in the 2007 Journal of Behavioral Finance. (Also available, absolutely free by clicking on the hyperlink)

In the end, it's not enough to just tear down the long-standing EMH. One must build another, more accurate model up in its place. And in the 2004 Theorist, Bob Prechter does just that with the Wave Principle, which reconciles the technical and psychological sides of stock market behavior into this key point: Herding impulses, while not rational, are also NOT random. They unfold in clear and calculable wave patterns as reflected in the price action of financial markets.

As the mainstream media continues to jump on board Prechter's Financial/Economic Dichotomy Theory, you can read both of Prechter's original writings. Enjoy your complimentary access to the 2004 April 2004 Elliott Wave Theorist and the 2007 Journal of Behavioral Finance.

Read some of the latest nuggets directly from Robert Prechter's desk -- FREE. Click here to download a free report packed with recent quotes from Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Efficient Market Hypothesis: R.I.P.. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Slicing the Neckline: A Classic Technical Pattern Agrees with the Elliott Wave Count

2010-08-17T17:59:00.000-07:00

August 17, 2010
By Elliott Wave International

In the August issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist, market forecaster Robert Prechter alerted readers that the U.S. stock market was slicing the neckline of a classic head-and-shoulders pattern in technical analysis, and that this may send the market into critical condition.

Prechter said that when the Elliott wave count and a head-and-shoulders pattern are saying the same thing about the stock market, it's best to pay attention.

Read some of the latest nuggets directly from Robert Prechter's desk -- FREE. Click here to download a free report packed with recent quotes directly from Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

Here's how the August issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, the sister publication to Prechter's Theorist, described the head and shoulders pattern unfolding in the stock market:

"The weekly Dow chart [below] shows the development of an intermediate-term, head-and-shoulders pattern from the January high at 10,729.90 to the present. The January high marks the left shoulder, the April 26 high at 11,258 is the head, and the right shoulder is now ending. The April [Theorist] discussed the pertinent characteristics that Edwards and Magee used to define this technical pattern ... all apply to the current formation. Observe how weekly stock trading volume has contracted during the development of the right shoulder, a necessary trait of this pattern. The downward-sloping neckline -- exactly as on the big ten year pattern -- displays market weakness, which is consistent with our interpretation of the wave structure."

This chart shows the head-and-shoulders pattern.

Here's what Robert Prechter himself said in a recent Elliott Wave Theorist:

"Generally, when the neckline slopes downward, the right shoulder does not rise to the level of the left shoulder ..."

Please look at the chart again -- then re-read Prechter's quote.

Read some of the latest nuggets directly from Robert Prechter's desk -- FREE. Click here to download a free report packed with recent quotes from Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Slicing the Neckline: When the Market May Go into "Critical Condition". EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Deflation: First Step, Understand It

2010-08-16T22:34:00.000-07:00

There is still time to prepare if deflation is indeed in our future.
August 16, 2010
By Elliott Wave International

"Fed's Bullard Raises Specter of Japanese-Style Deflation," read a July 29 Washington Post headline.

When the St. Louis Fed Chief speaks, people listen. Now that deflation -- something that EWI's president Robert Prechter has been warning about for several years -- is making mainstream news headlines, is it too late to prepare?

It's not too late.

There are still steps you can take if deflation is indeed in our future. The first step is to understand what it is. So we've put together a special, free, 60-page Club EWI resource, "The Guide to Understanding Deflation: Robert Prechter’s most important warnings about deflation." Enjoy this quick excerpt. (For details on how to read this important report free, look below.)

When Does Deflation Occur?
By Robert Prechter

To understand inflation and deflation, we have to understand the terms money and credit.

Money is a socially accepted medium of exchange, value storage and final payment; credit may be summarized as a right to access money. In today’s economy, most credit is lent, so people often use the terms "credit" and "debt" interchangeably, as money lent by one entity is simultaneously money borrowed by another.

Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit (and its flip side, the assumption of debt). Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek warned of the consequences of credit expansion, as have a handful of other economists, who today are mostly ignored. Bank credit and Elliott wave expert Hamilton Bolton, in a 1957 letter, summarized his observations this way:

In reading a history of major depressions in the U.S. from 1830 on, I was impressed with the following:
(a) All were set off by a deflation of excess credit. This was the one factor in common.
(b) Sometimes the excess-of-credit situation seemed to last years before the bubble broke.
(c) Some outside event, such as a major failure, brought the thing to a head, but the signs were visible many months, and in some cases years, in advance.
(d) None was ever quite like the last, so that the public was always fooled thereby.
(e) Some panics occurred under great government surpluses of revenue (1837, for instance) and some under great government deficits.

Near the end of a major expansion, few creditors expect default, which is why they lend freely to weak borrowers. Few borrowers expect their fortunes to change, which is why they borrow freely. The psychological aspect of deflation and depression cannot be overstated. ...

Read the rest of this important 60-page Robert Prechter's report online now, free! Here's what else you'll learn:

* What Makes Deflation Likely Today?
* How Big a Deflation?
* Why Falling Interest Rates in This Environment Will Be Bearish
* Myth: "Deflation Will Cause a Run on the Dollar, Which Will Make Prices Rise"
* Myth: "Debt Is Not as High as It Seems"
* Myth: "War Will Bail Out the Economy"
* Myth: "The Fed Will Stop Deflation"

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Deflation: First Step, Understand It. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Stress Test: How to Find the Safest Banks in the U.S. and Abroad

2010-08-03T09:25:00.001-07:00

August 3, 2010
By Elliott Wave International

Stress test results for the biggest European banks were recently released, while the largest U.S. banks took their first stress tests in May 2009. But most people don't really care how much stress their banks are under; they are more worried about their own stress levels. One thing that adds to personal stress is worrying about whether their deposits are in a safe place. Bob Prechter has encouraged people to find the safest banks for their money since he originally wrote his New York Times best-selling book, Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression in 2002. This excerpt explains why banks of all sizes are riskier than they used to be (think about portfolios stuffed with derivatives, emerging market debt and non-performing commercial loans). You can also get a list of the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks -- two banks per state -- that was just updated in late June with the latest available data by joining Club EWI and receiving EWI's Safe Banks report.

* * * * *
Excerpted from Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression, by Robert Prechter

Many major national and international banks around the world have huge portfolios of “emerging market” debt, mortgage debt, consumer debt and weak corporate debt. I cannot understand how a bank trusted with the custody of your money could ever even think of buying bonds issued by Russia or Argentina or any other unstable or spendthrift government. As At the Crest of the Tidal Wave put it in 1995, “Today’s emerging markets will soon be submerging markets.” That metamorphosis began two years later. The fact that banks and other investment companies can repeatedly ride such “investments” all the way down to write-offs is outrageous.

Many banks today also have a shockingly large exposure to leveraged derivatives such as futures, options and even more exotic instruments. The underlying value of assets represented by such financial derivatives at quite a few big banks is greater than the total value of all their deposits. The estimated representative value of all derivatives in the world today is $90 trillion, over half of which is held by U.S. banks. Many banks use derivatives to hedge against investment exposure, but that strategy works only if the speculator on the other side of the trade can pay off if he’s wrong.

Relying upon, or worse, speculating in, leveraged derivatives poses one of the greatest risks to banks that have succumbed to the lure. Leverage almost always causes massive losses eventually because of the psychological stress that owning them induces. You have already read of the tremendous debacles at Barings Bank, Long-Term [sic] Capital Management, Enron and other institutions due to speculating in leveraged derivatives. It is traditional to discount the representative value of derivatives because traders will presumably get out of losing positions well before they cost as much as what they represent. Well, maybe. It is at least as common a human reaction for speculators to double their bets when the market goes against a big position. At least, that’s what bankers might do with your money.

Today’s bank analysts assure us, as a headline from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution put it on December 29, 2001, that “Banks [Are] Well-Capitalized.” Banks today are indeed generally considered well capitalized compared to their situation in the 1980s. Unfortunately, that condition is mostly thanks to the great asset mania of the 1990s, which, as explained in Book One, is probably over. Much of the record amount of credit that banks have extended, such as that lent for productive enterprise or directly to strong governments, is relatively safe. Much of what has been lent to weak governments, real estate developers, government-sponsored enterprises, stock market speculators, venture capitalists, consumers (via credit cards and consumer-debt “investment” packages), and so on, is not. One expert advises, “The larger, more diversified banks at this point are the safer place to be.” That assertion will surely be severely tested in the coming depression.

There are five major conditions in place at many banks that pose a danger: (1) low liquidity levels, (2) dangerous exposure to leveraged derivatives, (3) the optimistic safety ratings of banks’ debt investments, (4) the inflated values of the property that borrowers have put up as collateral on loans and (5) the substantial size of the mortgages that their clients hold compared both to those property values and to the clients’ potential inability to pay under adverse circumstances. All of these conditions compound the risk to the banking system of deflation and depression.

Financial companies are enjoying big advances in the current stock market rally. Depositors today trust their banks more than they trust government or business in general. For example, a recent poll asked web surfers which among a list of seven types of institutions they would most trust to operate a secure identity service. Banks got nearly 50 percent of the vote. General bank trustworthiness is yet another faith that will be shattered in a depression.

Well before a worldwide depression dominates our daily lives, you will need to deposit your capital into safe institutions. I suggest using two or more to spread the risk even further. They must be far better than the ones that today are too optimistically deemed “liquid” and “safe” by both rating services and banking officials.

Inside the revealing free report, you'll discover:

* The 100 Safest U.S. Banks (2 for each state)
* Where your money goes after you make a deposit
* How your fractional-reserve bank works
* What risks you might be taking by relying on the FDIC's guarantee

Please protect your money. Download the free 10-page "Safe Banks" report now.
Learn more about the "Safe Banks" report, and download it for free here.

This article, Stress Test: How to Find the Safest Banks in the U.S. and Abroad,was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

DJIA's 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line?

2010-06-23T23:46:00.000-07:00

June 23, 2010
By Elliott Wave International

Moving averages are one of the most widely followed indicator in technical analysis.
Simply put, when the price of an index or stock stays above a particular price moving average line on a chart, that price level serves as support -- a level where buyers reside.
If the price falls below a moving average line and "can't" break through from the underside, this price level is a line of resistance -- a price level where sellers hover.
That's an easy explanation of moving averages for you.

Learn to integrate Elliott wave analysis with other technical disciplines. Read the FREE Ultimate Technical Analysis eBook to discover some of the favorite technical analysis methods used by the analysts at Elliott Wave International. Learn more and download your free, 50-page technical analysis ebook here.

A commonly watched line is the 200-day moving average.

After the DJIA fell below its 200-day moving average in May, prices remained mainly below the line until June 15, when the market rose 213 points. But, as this chart from Elliott Wave International's June 16 Short Term Update shows, the NYSE volume has remained muted:

"There was no follow-through today. More stocks closed down than up on the day on the NYSE, within the S&P 500 and also for the DJ Composite. Today's Big Board volume was similarly slow relative to yesterday. ..." -- Steven Hochberg, Short Term Update, June 16, 2010

With a lack of buying conviction, how long will the stock indexes remain above the 200-day moving average?

For the answer, you need to look at the DJIA's Elliott wave structure. It strongly suggests the market will move in a definite direction in a matter of days or weeks.

Learn to integrate Elliott wave analysis with other technical disciplines. Read the FREE Ultimate Technical Analysis eBook to discover some of the favorite technical analysis methods used by the analysts at Elliott Wave International. Learn more and download your free, 50-page technical analysis ebook here.

This article, DJIA's 200-Day Moving Average,was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Enjoy 8 Free Chapters from Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash

2010-04-28T23:40:00.000-07:00

Prechter's New York Times and Wall Street Journal business best-seller remains a useful read.

April 28, 2010
By Editorial Staff

n 2002, Elliott Wave International's president Robert Prechter published his New York Times and Wall Street Journal business best-seller Conquer the Crash, a prescient book that explained why a financial crisis was inevitable and predicted almost exactly how it would unfold.

Now in the 2nd edition, Conquer the Crash remains a very useful read. To give you an idea of just how useful, we are releasing 8 chapters of the book to all 150,000+ free Club EWI members. Here's an excerpt. (Details on how to read full report are below.)

-------------------------

Robert Prechter
Conquer the Crash
Chapter 23, "What To Do With Your Pension Plan," excerpt

Make sure you fully understand all aspects of your government's individual retirement plans. In the U.S., this includes such structures as IRAs, 401Ks and Keoghs. If you anticipate severe system-wide financial and political stresses, you may decide to liquidate any such plans and pay whatever penalty is required. Why? Because there are strings attached to the perk of having your money sheltered from taxes. You may do only what the government allows you to do with the money. It restricts certain investments and can change the list at any time. It charges a penalty for early withdrawal and can change the amount of the penalty at any time.

What is the worst that could happen? In Argentina, the government continued to spend more than it took in until it went broke trying to pay the interest on its debt. In December 2001, it seized $2.3 billion dollars worth of deposits in private pension funds to pay its bills. ...

With the retirement setup in the U.S., the government need not be as direct as Argentina's. It need merely assert, after a stock market fall decimates many people's savings, that stocks are too risky to hold for retirement purposes. Under the guise of protecting you, it could ban stocks and perhaps other investments in tax-exempt pension plans and restrict assets to one category: "safe" long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. Then it could raise the penalty of early withdrawal to 100 percent. Bingo. The government will have seized the entire $2 trillion -- or what's left of it given a crash -- that today is held in government-sponsored, tax-deferred 401K private pension plans. I'm not saying it will happen, but it could, and wouldn't you rather have your money safely under your own discretion? ...

Perhaps you have no such opportunity for a tax saving and do not want to pay the penalty attached to premature withdrawal. If your balance is high enough, you may wish to consider converting your retirement plan investments into an annuity at a safe insurance company (see Chapter 24). It is highly likely (though not assured) that such investments would be left alone even in a national financial emergency. ...

If you or your family owns its own small company and is the sole beneficiary of its pension or profit sharing plan, you should lodge its assets in a safe bank or money market fund. As an alternative, depending upon your age and requirements, you may consider converting it into an annuity, issued by a safe insurance company. Such insurance companies are few and far between, but the next chapter shows you where to find them.

Read the rest of the 8 free chapters from Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash now, free! All you need is to create a free Club EWI profile. Here's what you'll learn:

* Chapter 10: Money, Credit and the Federal Reserve Banking System
* Chapter 13: Can the Fed Stop Deflation?
* Chapter 23: What To Do With Your Pension Plan
* Chapter 28: How to Identify a Safe Haven
* Chapter 29: Calling in Loans and Paying off Debt
* Chapter 30: What You Should Do If You Run a Business
* Chapter 32: Should You Rely on Government to Protect You?
* Chapter 33: A Short List of Imperative "Do's" and Crucial "Don'ts"

Keep reading this free report now -- all you need to do is create a free Club EWI profile.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. EWI's 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI's educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet's richest free content programs, Club EWI.

Raising The BAR: Bar Patterns & Trading Opportunities

2010-04-17T20:44:00.000-07:00

How a 3-in-1 formation in cotton "triggered" the January selloff
April 16, 2010

By Nico Isaac

or Elliott Wave International's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, the single most important thing for a trader to have is STYLE-- and no, we're not talking business casual versus sporty chic. Trading "style," as in any of the following: top/bottom picker, strictly technical, cyclical, or pattern watcher.

Jeffrey himself is (and always has been) a "trend" trader, meaning: he uses the Wave Principle as his primary tool, with a few secondary means of select technical studies. Such as: Bar Patterns. And Jeffrey counts one bar pattern in particular as his favorite: the 3-in-1.

Here's the gist: The 3-in-1 bar pattern occurs when the price range of the fourth bar (named, the "set-up" bar) engulfs the highs and lows of the last three bars. When prices penetrate above the high -- or -- below the low of the set-up bar, it often signals the resumption of the larger trend. Where this breach occurs is called the "trigger bar." On this, the following diagram offers a clear illustration:

Now, how about a real world example of the 3-1 formation in the recent history of a major commodity market? Well, that's where the picture below comes in. It's a close-up of Cotton from the February 5, 2010 Daily Futures Junctures.

As you can see, a classic 3-in-1 bar pattern emerged in Cotton at the very start of the New Year. Within a few day the trigger bar closed below the low of the set-up bar, signaling the market's return to the downside. Immediately after, cotton prices plunged in a powerful selloff to four-month lows.

February arrived, and with it the end of cotton's decline. In the same chart you can see how Jeffrey used the Wave Principle to calculate a potential downside target for the market at 66.33. This area marked the point where Wave (5) equaled wave (1), a reliable for impulse patterns. Since then a winning streak in cotton has carried prices to new contract highs.

This example shows the power of a fully-equipped technical analysis "toolbox." By using the Wave Principle with Bar Patterns, one has a solid, objective chance of anticipating the trend in volatile markets.

And in a 15-page report titled "How To Use Bar Patterns To Spot Trade Set-ups," Jeffrey Kennedy identifies the top SIX Bar Patterns included in his personal repertoire. They are Double Inside Days, Arrows, Popguns, 3-in-1, Reverse 3-in-1, and Outside-Inside Reversal.

In this comprehensive collection, Jeffrey provides each pattern with a definition, illustrations of its form, lessons on its application and how to incorporate it into Elliott wave analysis, historical examples of its occurrence in major commodity markets, and ultimately -- compelling proof of how it identified swift and sizable moves.
Best of all is, you can read the entire, 15-page report today at absolutely no cost. You read that right. The limited "How To Use Bar Patterns To Spot Trade Setups" is available with any free, Club EWI membership.

Nico Isaac writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis firm.

The Wave Principle: Where The Rubber Hits The Road

2010-04-01T19:46:00.000-07:00

Elliott wave analysis saw corn's biggest moves coming
April 1, 2010
By Nico Isaac

You could be to technical analysis what tweens are to texting, and it wouldn't make a lick of difference: You still wouldn't necessarily be trading at your fullest potential. The reason being: Without Elliott wave in your technical analysis toolbox, it's like looking at the world of opportunity through a narrow keyhole and ultimately missing the big picture.

The Wave Principle can help you unlock that door. Teaching you how to do it is the goal of the latest free educational report from our Club EWI resource center, titled "How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading." In this six-page article, our editorial staff reveals these (and many more) ways in which the wave model makes up for the ways ordinary technical methods fall short:

* Technical studies can get you on board a trend, but the Wave Principe can say specifically at which point that trend has failed -- namely, when prices violate critical support or resistance levels in your price charts.
* Technical studies can identify the direction of a trend, but the Wave Principle can determine how high prices will rally or how low they will fall.
* Technical studies can recognize the strength of a trend, but the Wave Principle can discern the maturity of one; when it's time to take profits or raise protective stops.
* Technical studies can recognize the strength of a trend, but the Wave Principle can discern the maturity of one; when it's time to take profits or raise protective stops.

Now for the fun part: Putting the Wave Principle to use in the real-time action of a well known market. For this, we turn to EWI's chief commodity analyst and long-time Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy. (Note: Futures Junctures Service is a two-part package that includes Daily Futures Junctures and its long-term sister publication Monthly Futures Junctures.)

Over the last year, Jeffrey's timely navigation of the Corn market showcases the ability of Wave analysis to identify high-probability trade set-ups. To illustrate, we'll start with this price chart of corn since March 2009 (courtesy of ino.com) -- punctuated with brief excerpts from Jeffrey's Monthly Futures Junctures.

Below are the expanded versions of Jeffrey's analysis:

June 2009 Monthly Futures Junctures:

"The Party's Over In Grains: The corrective advance in corn that began in December 2008 is complete at 450 (basis July). This means that the stage is set for renewed selling that should push corn prices to below the 2008 low of 325 1/4. Moreover, considering the manner and extent of the decline since the early June top, wave patterns argue strongly that this is an intermediate tradable top."

September 2009 Monthly Futures Junctures: Presented an updated chart that showed prices set to embark on a powerful uptrend above $4 and wrote: "After a Rally, More Decline."

January 2010 Monthly Futures Junctures: Price chart showed wave c of a zigzag coming to an end and wrote: Wave c = .618 times wave a + wave a at $4.26.

When applied skillfully, no method gets you into a trend earlier and out of a failed move faster than the Wave Principle. Read the entire free 6-page report "How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading" today.

Here's what you'll learn:

* How the Wave Principle provides you with price targets
* How it gives you specific "points of ruin": At what point does a trade fail?
* What specific trading opportunities the Wave Principle offers you
* How to use the Wave Principle to set protective stops
* Keep reading this free lesson now.

Nico Isaac writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis firm.

Fibonacci Techniques for Math Geeks -- and Everyone Else, Too

2010-03-29T22:42:00.000-07:00

March 29, 2010
By Editorial Staff

The word Fibonacci (pronounced fib-oh-notch-ee) can draw either blank stares or an enthusiastic response. There's hardly any in-between ground. But for those who ask how an esoteric mathematical relationship can apply to price charts and trading, here's a quick lesson. Everyone who uses Elliott wave analysis will sooner or later want to try using Fibo techniques, and Elliott Wave International's Jeff Kennedy has written about five of them in a Trader's Classroom column. For an example of why people are so fascinated by Fibonacci, read part of Kennedy's article here:

* * * * *

How to Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading

Have you ever given an expensive toy to a small child and watched while the child had less fun playing with the toy than with the box that it came in? In fact, I can remember some of the boxes I played with as a child that became spaceships, time machines or vehicles to use on dinosaur safaris.

In many ways, Fibonacci math is just like the box kids enjoy playing with imaginatively for hours on end. It's hard to imagine a wrong way to apply Fibonacci ratios or multiples to financial markets, and new ways are being tested every day. Let's look at just some of the ways I apply Fibonacci math in my own analysis.

Fibonacci Retracements

Financial markets demonstrate an uncanny propensity to reverse at certain Fibonacci levels. The most common Fibonacci ratios I use to forecast retracements are .382, .500 and .618. On occasion, I find .236 and .786 useful, but I prefer to stick with the big three. You can imagine how helpful these can be: Knowing where a corrective move is likely to end often identifies high-probability trade setups (Figures 7-1 and 7-2).

Figure 7-1

Figure 7-2

Kennedy then goes on to explain Fibonacci extensions, circles, fans and time, using 11 charts to show what he means. Whether or not you are a math geek, you can learn a lot from this six-page introduction to Fibonacci math.

Get Your Fibonacci Techniques Right Here. Jeffrey Kennedy has been using and teaching these techniques for years, and he has written a quick description of five Fibonacci techniques in his Trader's Classroom column -- now available to you for free by signing up as a Club EWI member. Read more about the 6-page report here.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the worlds largest market forecasting firm. EWIs 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWIs educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internets richest free content programs, Club EWI.

Wave Principle Crash Course: There's No Going Back

2010-03-06T12:43:00.000-08:00

Free video tutorial available to all Club EWI members
By Nico Isaac

For over ten decades, the mainstream financial world has embraced the view that external news events drive trend changes in the markets. In less than ten minutes, EWI's senior tutorial instructor Wayne Gorman shatters that very idea into a fine dust, swept away into thin air.

In part one of his exclusive, three-part Club EWI video series "Why Use The Wave Principle," Wayne first assesses the pitfalls of relying on macroeconomic models to forecast; namely: "An investor is lured into the market at just the worst time, when it's time to sell, and forced out just at the best time to buy."

As for real world examples of this happening, Wayne spans three hundred years of financial history to reveal how the most pivotal economic, political, and environmental events failed to alter the course of their respective markets. Here, the free video includes groundbreaking charts on these (and more) well known episodes:

* The S&P 500 and Enron from 2000-2002: The stock market ROSE and continued to proceed upward AFTER the largest US corporate scandal and bankruptcy ever (at the time).
* The Dow Industrials and GDP quarterly data from 1970 to early 2000s: After the release of major negative GDP numbers, the market for the most part ROSE, just the opposite of what most market analysts and investors expect.
* The Dow and profound political events over the last 80 years: In the 1930s and 1940s, a series of negative incidents -- i.e. Hitler rising to power, World War II, and the Holocaust -- preceded a powerful uptrend in stocks all the way into the 1960s.
* Stock market charts of the five countries most affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand). Four out of the five ROSE after the natural disaster...

Believe it or not, we've only scratched the surface. In his myth-busting, free video "Why Use the Wave Principle," Wayne Gorman presents a total of 40 charts that capture failed fundamental analysis of the world's leading financial markets. Wayne recalls this expression from a famous, Nobel Prize winning economist:

"Economic reasoning will be of no value in cases of uncertainty."

And he offers this response:

"But isn't that what we have in financial markets: cases of uncertainty? We need a different type of reasoning, one that will help us to avoid the pitfalls shown on the previous charts. That's why the Wave Principle is so important. It offers a unique perspective and a market discipline of rules and guidelines that help investors avoid buying at tops and liquidating at bottoms. It helps to explain and understand trends before they happen."

The flaw in Economic 101, cause-and-effect theory is one of the easiest things to prove. But it's also one of the hardest things for many investors to accept. Now is the time to do so. Watch the free "Why Use the Wave Principle" video in its entirety today at absolutely no cost. Simply sign on to join the rapidly expanding Club EWI and take advantage of the amazing educational benefits membership has to offer.

Nico Isaac writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis firm.

What Does NOT Move Markets? Examining 8 Claims of Market Efficiency

2010-03-02T21:02:00.000-08:00

By Susan Walker

If everyone says that shocks from outside the financial system -- so-called exogenous shocks -- can affect it for better or worse, they must be right.

It just sounds so darned logical, right? Economists believe this trope to be true, mainly because they believe that investors are rational thinkers who re-evaluate their positions after every new bit of relevant information turns up.

Beginning to sound slightly impossible? Well, yes.

It turns out that logic is exactly what's missing from this it-feels-so-right idea of rational reaction to exogenous shocks. Read an excerpt from Robert Prechter's February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist to see how Prechter deals with this widely held belief.

Find out what really moves markets -- download the free 118-page Independent Investor eBook. The Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Learn more, and download your free ebook here.

* * * * *

Excerpted from Prechter's February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist, published Feb. 19, 2010

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) argues that as new information enters the marketplace, investors revalue stocks accordingly. … In such a world, the market would fluctuate narrowly around equilibrium as minor bits of news about individual companies mostly canceled each other out. Then important events, which would affect the valuation of the market as a whole, would serve as “shocks” causing investors to adjust prices to a new level, reflecting that new information. One would see these reactions in real time, and investigators of market history would face no difficulties in identifying precisely what new information caused the change in prices. …

This is a simple idea and simple to test. But almost no one ever bothers to test it. According to the mindset of conventional economists, no one needs to test it; it just feels right; it must be right. It’s the only model anyone can think of. But socionomists [those who use the Wave Principle to make social predictions] have tested this idea multiple ways. And the result is not pretty for the theories that rely upon it.

The tests that we will examine are not rigorous or statistical. Our time and resources are limited. But in refuting a theory, extreme rigor is unnecessary. If someone says, “All leaves are green,” all one need do is show him a red one to refute the claim. I hope when we are done with our brief survey, you will see that the ubiquitous claim we challenge is more akin to economists saying “All leaves are made of iron.” We will be unable to find a single example from nature that fits.

* * *

In his February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist, Prechter then goes on to show charts that examine each of these claims that encompass both economic and political events:

Claim #1: “Interest rates drive stock prices.”
Claim #2: “Rising oil prices are bearish for stocks.”
Claim #3: “An expanding trade deficit is bad for a nation’s economy and therefore bearish for stock prices.”
Claim #4: “Earnings drive stock prices.”
Claim #5: “GDP drives stock prices.”
Claim #6: “Wars are bullish/bearish for stock prices.”
Claim #7: “Peace is bullish for stocks.”
Claim #8: “Terrorist attacks would cause the stock market to drop.”

To protect your personal finances, it's important to think independently from the crowd, particularly when the crowd buys into what economists say.

Find out what really moves markets -- download the free 118-page Independent Investor eBook. The Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Learn more, and download your free ebook here.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company.

Use Bar Chart Patterns To Spot Trade Setups

2010-02-26T18:57:00.000-08:00

How a 3-in-1 chart formation in cotton foresaw the January selloff
February 26, 2010
By Nico Isaac

For Elliott Wave International's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, the single most important thing for a trader to have is STYLE-- and no, we're not talking business casual versus sporty chic. Trading "style," as in any of the following: top/bottom picker, strictly technical, cyclical, or pattern watcher.

Jeffrey himself is, and always has been, a "trend" trader; meaning: he uses the Wave Principle as his primary tool, along with a few secondary means of select technical studies. Such as: Bar Patterns. And, of all of those, Jeffrey counts one bar pattern in particular as his absolute, all-time favorite: the 3-in-1.

Here's the gist: The 3-in-1 bar pattern occurs when the price range of the fourth bar (named, the "set-up" bar) engulfs the highs and lows of the preceding three bars. When prices move above the high or below the low of the set-up bar, it often signals the resumption of the larger trend. The point where this breach occurs is called the "trigger bar." On this, the following diagram offers a clear illustration:

For a real-world example of the 3-1 formation in the recent history of a major commodity market, take a look at this close-up of Cotton from Jeffrey Kennedy's February 5, 2010, Daily Futures Junctures.

As you can see, a classic 3-in-1 bar pattern emerged in Cotton at the very start of the new year. Then, within days of January, the trigger bar closed below the low of the set-up bar, signaling the market's return to the downside. Immediately after, cotton prices plunged in a powerful selloff to four-month lows.

Then February arrived and with it, the end of cotton's decline. In the same chart, you can see how Jeffrey used the Wave Principle to calculate a potential downside target for the market at 66.33. This area marked the point where Wave (5) equaled wave (1), a common relationship. Since then, a winning streak in cotton has carried prices to new contract highs.

What this example tells you is that by tag-teaming the Wave Principle with Bar Patterns, you can have a higher objective chance of pinning the volatile markets to the ground.
To learn more, read Jeffrey Kennedy's exclusive, free 15-page report titled "How To Use Bar Patterns To Spot Trade Set-ups," where he shows you 6 bar patterns, his personal favorites.

Nico Isaac writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis firm.

Surviving Deflation: First, Understand It

2010-02-26T18:54:00.000-08:00

Deflation is more than just "falling prices." Robert Prechter explains why.
February 26, 2010

The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International's free Club EWI resource, "The Guide to Understanding Deflation. Robert Prechter's Most Important Writings on Deflation."

The Primary Precondition of Deflation
Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit. Bank credit and Elliott wave expert Hamilton Bolton, in a 1957 letter, summarized his observations this way: "In reading a history of major depressions in the U.S. from 1830 on, I was impressed with the following: (a) All were set off by a deflation of excess credit. This was the one factor in common."

"The Fed Will Stop Deflation"
I am tired of hearing people insist that the Fed can expand credit all it wants. Sometimes an analogy clarifies a subject, so let’s try one.

It may sound crazy, but suppose the government were to decide that the health of the nation depends upon producing Jaguar automobiles and providing them to as many people as possible. To facilitate that goal, it begins operating Jaguar plants all over the country, subsidizing production with tax money. To everyone’s delight, it offers these luxury cars for sale at 50 percent off the old price. People flock to the showrooms and buy. Later, sales slow down, so the government cuts the price in half again. More people rush in and buy. Sales again slow, so it lowers the price to $900 each. People return to the stores to buy two or three, or half a dozen. Why not? Look how cheap they are! Buyers give Jaguars to their kids and park an extra one on the lawn. Finally, the country is awash in Jaguars. Alas, sales slow again, and the government panics. It must move more Jaguars, or, according to its theory -- ironically now made fact -- the economy will recede. People are working three days a week just to pay their taxes so the government can keep producing more Jaguars. If Jaguars stop moving, the economy will stop. So the government begins giving Jaguars away. A few more cars move out of the showrooms, but then it ends. Nobody wants any more Jaguars. They don’t care if they’re free. They can’t find a use for them. Production of Jaguars ceases. It takes years to work through the overhanging supply of Jaguars. Tax collections collapse, the factories close, and unemployment soars. The economy is wrecked. People can’t afford to buy gasoline, so many of the Jaguars rust away to worthlessness. The number of Jaguars -- at best -- returns to the level it was before the program began.

The same thing can happen with credit.

It may sound crazy, but suppose the government were to decide that the health of the nation depends upon producing credit and providing it to as many people as possible. To facilitate that goal, it begins operating credit-production plants all over the country, called Federal Reserve Banks. To everyone’s delight, these banks offer the credit for sale at below market rates. People flock to the banks and buy. Later, sales slow down, so the banks cut the price again. More people rush in and buy. Sales again slow, so they lower the price to one percent. People return to the banks to buy even more credit. Why not? Look how cheap it is! Borrowers use credit to buy houses, boats and an extra Jaguar to park out on the lawn. Finally, the country is awash in credit. Alas, sales slow again, and the banks panic. They must move more credit, or, according to its theory -- ironically now made fact -- the economy will recede. People are working three days a week just to pay the interest on their debt to the banks so the banks can keep offering more credit. If credit stops moving, the economy will stop. So the banks begin giving credit away, at zero percent interest. A few more loans move through the tellers’ windows, but then it ends. Nobody wants any more credit. They don’t care if it’s free. They can’t find a use for it. Production of credit ceases. It takes years to work through the overhanging supply of credit. Interest payments collapse, banks close, and unemployment soars. The economy is wrecked. People can’t afford to pay interest on their debts, so many bonds deteriorate to worthlessness. The value of credit -- at best -- returns to the level it was before the program began.

Jaguars, anyone?

Read the rest of this important 63-page deflation study now, free! Here's what you'll learn:

What Triggers the Change to Deflation
Why Deflationary Crashes and Depressions Go Together
Financial Values Can Disappear
Deflation is a Global Story
What Makes Deflation Likely Today?
How Big a Deflation?
More

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.

11 Commonplace Market Views: True or Myth?

2010-02-18T00:26:00.000-08:00

By Susan C. Walker

"Cash on the sidelines is bullish for stocks." Have you ever heard some stock market pundit utter these words? Have you ever wondered if the statement were true? Read this item from the latest issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, and you'll wonder no more:

Myth -- Cash on the sidelines is bullish for stocks. This refrain rang like a gong all the way through the declines of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. In February 2000, when mutual fund cash hit 4.2% (compared to 3.8% in November), The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast issued its “cash is king” advice. Once again, the word on the street is that there is way too much “cash on the sidelines” for stocks to fall precipitously. This chart shows net cash available to investors plotted beneath the DJIA. In December 2007, available net cash expanded to a new high, besting all extremes since at least 1992, a 15-year time span. Despite the presence of this mountain of cash, the DJIA lost more than half its entire value over the next 15 months. Indeed, as the chart shows, cash remained high right as the stock market entered the most intense part of the crash in 2008. Available cash does correlate with the market’s moves, but the market is in charge, not the cash.
--The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, Jan. 29, 2010

Now take a look at these 10 statements and decide if they are true:

1. Earnings drive stock prices.
2. Small stocks are the place to be.
3. Worry about inflation rather than deflation.
4. It's enough to simply beat the market.
5. To do well investing, you have to diversify.
6. The FDIC can protect depositors.
7. It's bullish when the market ignores bad news.
8. Bubbles can unwind slowly.
9. People can make money speculating.
10. News and events drive the markets.

Bob Prechter and our other analysts have debunked each of these statements as a market myth. You can discover how we exposed these ideas as myths, and in turn make more informed decisions about your investing.

We've gathered the writings that expose these 10 statements as market myths in our 33-page eBook, called Market Myths Exposed. They come from two of our premier publications, The Elliott Wave Theorist and The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, as well as two of our books, Prechter's Perspective and The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior.

Get Market Myths Exposed for FREE
The 33-page eBook takes the 10 most dangerous investment myths head on and exposes the truth about each in a way every investor can understand. You will uncover important myths about diversifying your portfolio, the safety of your bank deposits, earnings reports, investment bubbles, inflation and deflation, small stocks, speculation, and more! Protect your financial future and change the way you view your investments forever! Learn more, and get your free eBook here.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company.

S&P 500 And S&P 100 2010 Opening Range Charts

2010-02-11T04:42:00.001-08:00

S&P 500 Index (click to enlarge)

OEX S&P 100 Index (click to enlarge)

14 Critical Lessons Every Trader Should Know

2010-02-11T04:40:00.000-08:00

Download for free now: 14 Critical Lessons Every Trader Should Know

Our friends over at Elliott Wave International have brought back one of their most sought after free resources for one week only. The Best of Trader's Classroom eBook serves up the very best lessons from their popular -- and expensive -- Trader's Classroom Collection in one valuable 45-page report. If you aren't one of the thousands who downloaded this valuable resource in its original release, don't miss out on this rare second chance. The Best of Trader's Classroom eBook is free through February 16. Learn more and download your free report now.

U.S. Stocks: Will The Bears Relinquish Control?

2010-02-11T04:37:00.000-08:00

February 10, 2010
By Nico Isaac

In case you were hiding out Tiger Woods' style far away from the mainstream media during the past month, let me be the first to say: January saw an abrupt end to the U.S. stock market's record-setting winning streak. Last count, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 4% in its worst monthly loss in a year.

And, according to one Feb. 1, 2010, MarketWatch story, "The time to consider an exit strategy" has officially arrived. Here, the article captures the public's astonishment turned acceptance of the Dow's boom-to-gloom shift:

"The Dow has shocked the bulls out of their complacency. After all, analysts were looking for the bull market to last until at least the second half of the year. Investors were not prepared for such a sharp decline and now at least some of the chatter has gone from 'how high will the market go?' to 'how low will it fall?' [emphasis added]"
Let me get this straight. The powers that be say it's time to "consider an exit strategy" -- AFTER the Dow has already plunged 700-plus points to land at its lowest level in two months. That's about as helpful as building a life raft AFTER your ship has begun to sink.

Let me get this straight. The powers that be say it's time to "consider an exit strategy" -- AFTER the Dow has already plunged 700-plus points to land at its lowest level in two months. That's about as helpful as building a life raft AFTER your ship has begun to sink.

Get a FREE 10-Lesson Tutorial on the Basics of the Wave Principle
The Wave Principle is a powerful tool when used properly. This free tutorial gives you the foundation you need to put the power of Elliott to work for you. Learn more, and get your free 10-lesson tutorial here.

Then, those same sources go on to say investors were "not prepared" for the degree and depth of the stock market's decline. This is only partly true. On Main Street, the early January flood of bull-is-back-type headlines gushed in and washed all the bears away.

Yet, on our "Elliott wave" Street, preparation for a "sharp" decline in the Dow was fast in place. One week before the market turned down from its Jan. 19 high, Elliott Wave International's Short TermUpdate went on high bearish alert with this commanding insight:

"The Dow's diagonal remains in tact and its form is clear. We will afford the pattern a bit of leeway over the next one-two days... but the structure is very late in development. That means a trend reversal is fast approaching. A potential stopping range is 10,725-10,740. A close beneath [critical support] will confirm that the diagonal is over and the market has started a down phase that should draw prices significantly lower. Once a diagonal is complete, prices swiftly retrace to near its origin, which in this case is 10,263.90, the very first downside target." (Jan. 13 Short Term Update)

Soon after, the Dow peaked within four ticks of our cited upside target; next, it went on to fulfill the second part of its Elliott wave script with a staggering triple-digit slide to "near the origin" of the diagonal triangle pattern, and then some.

That leaves one question: Are the bears now ready to relinquish control of stocks? Don't wait for the market action to "shock" you.

Get a FREE 10-Lesson Tutorial on the Basics of the Wave Principle
The first thing you should know is that the Wave Principle is not a black-box trading system. Elliott waves provide a context for past and present price action. Once you identify to the most likely structure of the pattern unfolding, you can then formulate a forecast for the future. The Wave Principle is a powerful tool when used properly. This free tutorial gives you the foundation you need to put the power of Elliott to work for you. Learn more, and get your free 10-lesson tutorial here.

Nico Isaac writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis firm.

Bernanke's Burn Notice -- Why Now? Research Reveals Insight Into Fed Chairman's Popularity

2010-02-04T15:52:00.000-08:00

By Elliott Wave International

Like a spy who gets a burn notice, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has suddenly lost his support.

Bernanke has gone from being Time magazine's Man of the Year in 2009 to … what? A Fed chairman embroiled in a controversial reconfirmation process before U.S. Congress. Why the sudden turnaround in his fortunes?

Robert Prechter, president of the research firm Elliott Wave International, has written about the history of the Fed and its chairmen several times over the years, and his research shows that their popularity rises and falls with social mood, which is measured by the stock market. Here is a compilation of excerpts from Prechter's monthly market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, from 2005-2009 about the trouble he sees brewing at the Fed.

Can the Fed Stop Deflation? Robert Prechter answers this all-important question in his Free Deflation Survival Guide. The guide gives you a 60-page ebook that will help you understand deflation and its effects on society; you'll even learn how to survive and prosper in such an environment. Download Your Free 60-Page Deflation eBook Here.

(November 2005) The Coming Change at the Fed | Public figureheads have a way of representing eras. This is certainly true of entertainment icons and politicians. The history of Fed chairmanship implies a similar tendency for changes of the guard to coincide with changes in social mood and therefore stock prices and the economy. [The chart below] depicts our social-mood meter—the DJIA—since the Fed's creation in 1913, marked with the reigning chairmen according to a list on the Fed's website.

The first chairman, Hamlin, presided over a straight-up boom. As it ended, Harding took over and presided over an inflationary period that accompanied a bear market, exiting just as a new uptrend was developing. Crissinger took over at the onset of the Roaring Twenties, and Young presided over the boom, the peak and the rebound into 1930. Meyer took over just as confidence was collapsing and left the office in early 1933 at the exact bottom of the Great Depression. The next three chairmen struggled through the choppy years of the 1940s. Then Martin presided over virtually the entire advance from the early 1950s through 1969, exiting just before the recession of 1970. Burns and Miller presided over a bear market and exited as the new uptrend was developing. Volcker, after weathering an inflation crisis, presided over the explosive '80s. Greenspan has presided over the manic '90s and the topping process. [Ben Bernanke] will have his own era. Given the eras that have immediately preceded the coming change in leadership, the odds are that this new environment will be a bear market.

(June 2006) Economists are convinced that the Fed can "fight" inflation or deflation by manipulating interest rates. But for the most part, all the Fed does is to follow price trends. When the markets fall and the economy weakens, the price of money falls with them, so interest rates go down. When the markets rise and the economy strengthens, the price of money rises with them, so interest rates go up. The Fed's rates fell along with markets and the economy from 2001 to 2003. They have risen along with markets and the economy since then. Regardless of the Fed's promise to keep raising rates, you can bet that the price of money will fall right along with the markets and the economy. Pundits will say that the Fed is "fighting" deflation, but it will simply be lowering its prices in line with the others.

It is highly likely that the next eight years or so will test the nearly universally accepted theory—among bulls and bears alike—that the Fed can control anything at all. The Great Depression made it look like a gang of fools, as will the coming deflationary collapse. We have predicted unequivocally that the new Fed chairman will go down as Hoover did: the butt of all the blame, and if you are reading the newspapers you can see that it's already started. "When Bernanke Speaks, the Markets Freak" (San Jose Mercury News, June 10, 2006); "Bernanke is being blamed for spooking Wall Street" (USA Today, June 7, 2006); "Bernanke to blame for volatility" (Globe and Mail, Canada, Jun 13, 2006). The new chairman had a brief honeymoon (which we also predicted), but it's already over.

By the way, I heard his commencement speech at MIT last week, and in it he spoke eloquently of the value of technology and free markets. But he also opined that economists have successfully applied technology to macroeconomics. We believe that the collective unconscious herding impulse cannot be tamed, directed or managed. In our socionomic view, the Fed cannot control the mood behind the markets, but rather, the mood behind the markets controls how people judge the Fed. We'll ultimately find out who's right.

Can the Fed Stop Deflation? Robert Prechter answers this all-important question in his Free Deflation Survival Guide. The guide gives you a 60-page ebook that will help you understand deflation and its effects on society; you'll even learn how to survive and prosper in such an environment. Download Your Free 60-Page Deflation eBook Here.

(December 2009) Bernanke's greatest achievement was not the measly $1.25t. of debt that he arranged to have the Fed monetize; it was convincing the government to shift the burden of debt default from the speculators and creditors to taxpayers.

(September 2009) Thanks to the Fed Chairman and two Treasury Secretaries, profligate bankers have been cashing checks off the Fed's and the Treasury's accounts, and the poor savers and taxpayers who fund these institutions are unaware that their personal bank accounts are being tapped by counterfeiters and thieves.

That lack of awareness may soon change. Declining social mood is fueling the drive to expose the Fed's secrets. [Ed. note: Bloomberg News has sued the Fed under the Freedom of Information Act; Congressmen Ron Paul, R-Texas, and Barney Frank, D-Mass., are leading a charge to audit the Fed.] Exposing the Fed's secret deals could lead to scandal and the collapse of major money-center banks. But most important to our monetary outlook, it will serve to curb the Fed's reflation efforts. As I have written many times, deflation will win. Social mood is impulsive and cannot be stopped. The downtrend will claim its victims by whatever measures it must take to do so.

(August 2009) On July 26, in a speech in Kansas City, MO, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke declared, "I was not going to be the Federal Reserve chairman who presided over the second Great Depression." (WSJ, 7/27) We think this implication of a fait accompli is premature. Clearly, the Fed Chairman and the majority of economists are of the opinion that the worst of the financial crisis is past and that the Fed's unprecedented lending has averted deflation and depression. But wave 3 down in the stock market will dispel these illusions. Years ago, we suggested that Chairman Greenspan quit if he wanted to keep his lofty reputation. He didn't do it. Now Chairman Bernanke should consider this option.

So will Bernanke serve a second term as Fed chairman? The January 2010 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast says, "Social mood is still too elevated to deny Bernanke reappointment as head of the Fed. ... But rising political tension confirms that his next term will be far more stressful than his first."

Can the Fed Stop Deflation? Robert Prechter answers this all-important question in his Free Deflation Survival Guide. The guide gives you a 60-page ebook that will help you understand deflation and its effects on society; you'll even learn how to survive and prosper in such an environment. Download Your Free 60-Page Deflation eBook Here.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

Individual Investors Have Jumped Into Another Fire

2009-12-19T22:54:00.000-08:00

December 18, 2009
By Robert Prechter, CMT

The following article is an excerpt from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

First they bought into the “stocks for the long run” case and got killed. Then they jumped on the commodity bandwagon and got killed. Many investors are buying back into these very same markets, but others are running to what they perceive as safe “yields” in the municipal bond market. So far this year, individual investors have “poured a record $55 billion” (Bloomberg, 11/12) into muni bond funds, with the pace running $2b. per week in August and September; many other investors are buying munis outright. These must be the people who tell us that they can’t live without “yield” and also cannot imagine their city, county or state government going bust. But as Conquer the Crash warned and as The Elliott Wave Theorist has reiterated, the muni bond market is heading for disaster.

Municipalities have borrowed more than they can repay, they have pension liabilities that they cannot meet (up to a trillion dollars’ worth, according to Moody’s), and tax receipts are falling. The only reason that states haven’t failed yet is the so-called “stimulus package,” which took money from savers, investors and taxpayers—thereby impoverishing the people who live in the various states—and gave it to state governments to spend so they would not have to cease their profligate spending. But political pressures will eventually cut off this gravy train. In the 2010-2017 period, the muni bond market will become awash in defaults. The leap in optimism since March, which has shown up in every financial market, has fueled a retreat in muni bond yields to their lowest level since 1967 and narrowed the spread between muni bond yields and Treasuries.

This rush to buy municipal bonds is occurring right on the cusp of a dramatic decline in their values. While many individuals are loading up right at the peak so they can participate in the next major market disaster, smarter investors, such as insurance companies Allstate and Guardian Life, are getting out. Subscribers to our services, we trust, own not a single municipal IOU. Our recommendation for investors is 100 percent safety, and such a program does not include muni bonds. If you are a recent subscriber, please read the second half of Conquer the Crash as a manual on how to get your finances safe.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson "Conquer the Crash Collection" Now! You'll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more. Learn more and get your free 8 lessons here.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

More than 130 banks will have failed by the end of 2009. Is Your Bank Safe?

2009-11-18T15:08:00.000-08:00

By Gary Grimes

Please understand that this article is about more than safeguarding your money; it's about saving you headache and heartache. It's about giving you peace of mind.

Before I explain, please allow me to ask a few questions:

* Have you given much thought about the money in your banking accounts lately? Do you know if it's safe?
* Have you thought about what might happen if your bank fails?
* Did you know you could be left in the lurch for days, weeks, even months before you get your money back from the FDIC?
* What happens if the FDIC can't cover your funds?
* How do you find a safe bank to protect your deposits right now?

I hope you've given these questions some serious thought.

I have to be honest: These questions were about the farthest things from my mind until about a year ago, when I downloaded the free "Safe Banks" report from my colleagues at Elliott Wave International. At first, the report scared me: I thought, "Oh My Gosh! I could lose all of my money if my bank fails. What would I do?"

But as I read on, I figured out that the report was not only about making my money safe; it was about giving me peace of mind.

If you've read any of the following news items, perhaps you understand the fear of learning your money might not be safe. Here's a recent story from Bloomberg:

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- In May, the FDIC said it was projecting $70 billion of losses during the next five years due to bank failures. The agency said it expects most of those collapses to occur in 2009 and 2010.

The FDIC’s problem is that it didn’t collect enough revenue over the years to cover today’s losses. The blame lies partly with Congress. Until the law was changed in 2006, the FDIC was barred from charging premiums to banks that it classified as well-capitalized and well-managed. Consequently, the vast majority of banks weren’t paying anything for deposit insurance.

Of course, we now know it means nothing when the FDIC or any other regulator labels a bank “well-capitalized.” Most banks that failed during this crisis were considered well-capitalized just before their failure.

By the end of 2009, more than 130 banks will have failed. Most depositors will have little clue their bank was even at risk. Worse yet, the string-pullers in Washington are doing everything in their power to hide information about the safety of your bank from you.

So far, the FDIC has had enough money to cover insured depositors. But that money is quickly running out.

Just last week, the FDIC voted to mandate early payment of insurance premiums to help cover at-risk banks. But only time will tell if this move will provide the funds needed in the years ahead. Here's what the Associated Press reported on Thursday, Nov. 12:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. banks will prepay about $45 billion in premiums to replenish a federal deposit insurance fund now in the red, under a plan adopted Thursday by federal regulators.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board voted to mandate the early payments of premiums for 2010 through 2012. Amid the struggling economy and rising loan defaults, 120 banks have failed so far this year, costing the insurance fund more than $28 billion.

Worse yet, three more banks failed the very next day, Friday, Nov. 13.

This is a very real problem and a direct threat to your money. It's more important now than ever to personally ensure the safety of your bank. The free 10-page "Safe Banks" report can help. It includes the very latest bank safety ratings from the third quarter of 2009 to help you prepare for what's still to come this year and next.

Inside the revealing free report, you'll discover:

* The 100 Safest U.S. Banks (2 for each state)
* Where your money goes after you make a deposit
* How your fractional-reserve bank works
* What risks you might be taking by relying on the FDIC's guarantee

Please protect your money. Download the free 10-page "Safe Banks" report now.

Learn more about the "Safe Banks" report, and download it for free here.

Gary Grimes focuses on mass psychology, U.S. stocks and the U.S. economy. Gary has a bachelor’s degree in journalism from Auburn University in Auburn, AL, where he was first turned on to the Austrian School of economics by way of the world-famous Mises Institute. His study of classical liberalism eventually led him to discover the Elliott Wave Principle and Robert Prechter’s theory of socionomics.

If Stocks Tank, Shouldn't Gold Soar?

2009-11-13T19:31:00.000-08:00

The following article is provided courtesy of Elliott Wave International (EWI). For more insights that challenge conventional financial wisdom, download EWI’s free 118-page Independent Investor eBook.

-------------

Large banks and more recently pension funds have suddenly become infatuated with gold. They chant the mantras that gold bugs have known for years: gold is a store of value; owning gold is financial insurance; an ounce of gold will always buy a good suit. The idea is that if the economy continues to weaken and share prices decline, a strategic allocation of the precious metal will hedge and offset some of the losses in the financial sector.

On the surface it seems to make sense and it’s hard to argue with the logic. Even so, logic can sometimes get twisted, whereas facts cannot. The evidence is found in the chart we describe as “All the Same Market.” Gold, stocks, currencies (versus the dollar), oil, grains, meats, softs, all decline in a deflationary environment. As liquidity dries up and credit contracts, people, businesses, and institutions sell everything to get dollars. Cash is once again king. This is bearish for gold.

Looked at another way: as the dollar advances from its lows, things denominated in dollars lose value against the dollar. As long as the dollar remains the global senior currency, assets will depreciate: not just stocks and commodities but residential and commercial property, works of art, collectible cars, pretty much everything. Of course, this outlook presumes a deflationary environment and that’s been our view for quite some time. But that’s another conversation. The topic here is stocks down/gold up - or not.

The long-time editor of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast Short Term Update, Steven Hochberg summed it up succinctly in a recent issue:

“The other important aspect to a dollar bottom is the implication to all the other markets that have been moving opposite to this senior currency. The start of a major dollar rally should roughly coincide with a turn down in stocks, commodities, oil and the precious metals. So there are likely to be important trend reversals across nearly all major markets.”

Don’t fall into the trap of group-think. If investing was that easy we’d all have (insert your own private fantasy).

-------------

For more information, download Robert Prechter’s free Independent Investor eBook. The 118-page resource teaches investors to think independently by challenging conventional financial market assumptions.

Black Monday: Ancient History Or Imminent Future?

2009-10-29T16:04:00.000-07:00

October 29, 2009

By Nico Isaac

The following article includes analysis from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. For more insights from Robert Prechter, download the 75-page eBook Independent Investor eBook. It’s a compilation of some of the New York Times bestselling author’s writings that challenge conventional financial market assumptions. Visit Elliott Wave International to download the eBook, free.

Once upon a time, the term "Black Monday" was to Wall Street what the name "Lord Voldemort" was to Hogwarts. It turned the air freezing cold and sent traders flinching around every corner in fear of a repeat of the October 19, 1987 or October 28, 1929 meltdown.

Case in point: The 2008 "Black Monday" anniversary. At the time, the U.S. stock market was locked in a ferocious downtrend that included regular, triple-digit daily declines of 400 points and more. Needless to say, when the final two Mondays of October arrived, the least superstitious investors surrounded their portfolios with more good-luck talismans than a Bingo player. See October 19, 2008 AP headline below:

"Black Monday: Stocks Sink As Gloom Seizes Wall Street. Prolonged Economic Turmoil" is seen.

That was then. Today, the usual dread surrounding the back-to-back string of "Black Mondays" is nowhere to be found. In its place, media reports abound of a new, global bull market "shrugging off," "ignoring," and "making a distant memory" of the event.

For one, "gloom" hasn't "seized" the U.S. stock market in quite a while; from its March 2009 low, the Dow has risen more than 50% to above the psychologically important 10,000 level. For another, the mainstream experts insist that today's financial animal is unrecognizable to that of 1987, and especially 1929. In their eyes, it's a completely different -- i.e. safer, smarter, and sounder system.

We beg to differ.

See, while the usual experts want to put as much mental distance between today's market and those that facilitated the 1987 recession and 1929-1932 Great Depression -- the physical similarities are impossible to ignore; more so, in fact, to the latter scenario.

Here, the October 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presents the following news clip from the October 25, 1929 New York Daily Investment News.

Now, take a look at these headlines from the week of October 12-17, 2009:

"The Great Recession Is Over." (Reuters) --- "80% of Economists Say The Worst Is Behind Us." (CNN Money) --- "The Bull Is Back" (AP) --- "The Economic Recovery Is Well Underway" (Wall Street Journal)

They're interchangeable -- Eighty years later.

Along with a similar extreme in bullish sentiment, the performance of stocks between now and the 1929 situation is cut from the same cloth. After an initial plunge from August 1929 through late October 1929, the US stock market enjoyed a powerful rally well into the following year. NOW: After a steep freefall from its October 2007 peak, the US stock market is once again enjoying the fruits of a powerful rally back to new highs for the year.

Also, on closer examination, the October 19 Elliott Wave Theorist (EWT, for short) uncovers an even deeper parallel between the 2009 rally and the 1929-30 one. Here, EWT presents the following snapshot of the Dow during the Depression-era advance:

As Bob Prechter points out -- in 1930, stocks rallied to the level of the preceding year's gap. Bob then reveals that the same level has been reached now.
So, we all know how the 1930 rally ended. The question is whether the 2009 advance will experience the same fate. As Bob explains in the Theorist, the only way to know for certain is to "look at the reality of the situation."

For more information, download Robert Prechter’s free Independent Investor eBook. The 75-page resource teaches investors to think independently by challenging conventional financial market assumptions.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

S&P and NDX Updated charts 10/23/09

2009-10-24T21:57:00.000-07:00

S&P 500 Index Opening Range Full Year(click to enlarge)

This is a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index. Prices are testing the 1077.35 level, and a break of this area will lead prices to test the 1032.85 mark. The lower section of this chart shows OBV- On Balance Volume. In June and July of 2009 we had positive divergence as the the new low in prices was not confirmed by the volume. Now we have the opposite scenario. Prices have made a new High, but volume has lagged compared to the high made in September. Unless there is a volume surge with new higher prices, look to test lower levels of the opening ranges, 1032.85 is first up.

NDX Nasdaq 100 Index (click to enlarge)

Technology stocks of the Nasdaq have been stronger overall. Earnings by Apple Computer and Amazon have helped keep the index near its yearly high. Lately volume has been great on down days compared to up days, confirming the lack of a new high in On-Balance-Volume shown in the lower section of the chart. A break of 1749.10 could lead to a test of the 1671.93 level.

NYSE Composite Index (click to enlarge)

This chart compares the prices in the NYSE Composite Index to the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40Day Moving Averages. It is clear that the new highs lately are being attained buy fewer and fewer stocks carrying the index, less stocks are staying above their 40day as the index makes new highs for the year.

The opposite of this happened in March of 2009. Prices made a new low compared to November of 2008. This new low was not confirmed by a new low in the percentage of stocks trading above their 40 day moving average. This isn't a perfect indicator, as all stocks can trade above or below their moving averages, but it can show weakness and lack of over all momentum.

NYSE Composite Index Weekly (click to enlarge)

This is a weekly chart of the NYSE Composite Index showing both the percentage of stocks trading above their 200 and 40 day moving averages. It also includes re-tracement levels from the high 2007. We are approaching the 50% level. A year end move is still possible to try for the 61.8% level, but there should be consolidation first. The strength of this consolidation will determine if we try for a new high or retest lower levels.

-----------------------

If you haven’t yet given Prechter’s deflation argument your full attention, we write today to tell you that yesterday was the best time to do so.
Prechter’s complete writings on deflation literally fill thousands of pages. Now, for a limited time, Prechter has compiled his most important deflation writings into a special 60-page Deflation Survival Guide.

Until today, most of the forecasts and advice in this still-prescient eBook have only been released to Prechter’s faithful subscribers. You will not find its entire contents in other books or from other sources. This is your FREE definitive Deflation Survival Guide.

Download your 60-page Deflation Survival Guide now.

Earnings: Is That REALLY What's Driving The DJIA Higher?

2009-10-22T15:51:00.000-07:00

The idea of earnings driving the broad stock market is a myth.
October 22, 2009

By Vadim Pokhlebkin

It's corporate earnings season again, and everywhere you turn, analysts talk about the influence of earnings on the broad stock market:

* US Stocks Surge On Data, 3Q Earnings From JPMorgan, Intel (Wall Street Journal)
* Stocks Open Down on J&J Earnings (Washington Post)
* European Stocks Surge; US Earnings Lift Mood (Wall Street Journal)

With so much emphasis on earnings, this may come as a shock: The idea of earnings driving the broad stock market is a myth.

When making a statement like that, you'd better have proof. Robert Prechter, EWI's founder and CEO, presented some of it in his 1999 Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (excerpt; italics added):

Are stocks driven by corporate earnings? In June 1991, The Wall Street Journal reported on a study by Goldman Sachs’s Barrie Wigmore, who found that “only 35% of stock price growth [in the 1980s] can be attributed to earnings and interest rates.” Wigmore concludes that all the rest is due simply to changing social attitudes toward holding stocks. Says the Journal, “[This] may have just blown a hole through this most cherished of Wall Street convictions.”

What about simply the trend of earnings vs. the stock market? Well, since 1932, corporate profits have been down in 19 years. The Dow rose in 14 of those years. In 1973-74, the Dow fell 46% while earnings rose 47%. 12-month earnings peaked at the bear market low. Earnings do not drive stocks.

And in 2004, EWI's monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast added this chart and comment:

Earnings don’t drive stock prices. We’ve said it a thousand times and showed the history that proves the point time and again. But that’s not to say earnings don’t matter. When earnings give investors a rising sense of confidence, they can be a powerful backdrop for a downturn in stock prices. This was certainly true in 2000, as the chart shows. Peak earnings coincided with the stock market’s all-time high and stayed strong right through the third quarter before finally succumbing to the bear market in stock prices. Investors who bought stocks based on strong earnings (and the trend of higher earnings) got killed.

So if earnings don't drive the stock market's broad trend, what does? The Elliott Wave Principle says that what shapes stock market trends is how investors collectively feel about the future. Investors' mood -- or social mood -- changes before "the fundamentals" reflect that change, which is why trying to predict the markets by following the earnings reports and other "fundamentals" will often leave you puzzled. The chart above makes that clear.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson "Conquer the Crash Collection" Now! You'll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more. Learn more and get your free 8 lessons here.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

Gold: What's REALLY Behind the Record Rise, Bull or Bubble?

2009-10-20T22:38:00.000-07:00

October 20, 2009

By Nico Isaac

When prices in a financial market go from Sea Level to Outer Space in a relatively brief time, two scenarios are at work -- and they both start with the letters “B-U.”

When a precious metal goes from being a popular long-term investment of buy-and-holders to the quick, get-away “vehicle” of day-traders, two scenarios are at work -- and they both start with letters “B-U.”

And when the majority of mainstream pundits see a "new paradigm" in which prices continue to rise indefinitely, two scenarios are at work – and, you guessed it, they both start with the letters “B-U.”

Enter: the recent Gold Rush of 2009, when ALL of the above conditions apply. Everyone from hedge funds to housewives now hustle to hitch their asset wagon to the rising gold star. Which begs this question: Which of the possible two scenarios are at work: B-U-ll
--- Or B-U-bble?

Here’s the difference: A genuine bull market is driven by a self-sustaining internal dynamic that's reflected by a host of technical indicators. A Bubble, on the other hand, is the result of untenable psychology that could shift at any moment and bring prices plummeting down.

For long-term forecasts and more in-depth, historical analysis for precious metals, download Prechter’s FREE 40-page eBook on Gold and Silver.

It goes without saying into which category the mainstream experts put Gold: namely, a new bull market that has years, if not decades more to soar. “Gold Will Hit $2,000 an ounce,” reads an October 8 Market Watch. And -- “Gold Has More Upside… The metal’s bull run is just getting started,” adds a same day Barron’s.

I found hundreds of news items which agree about the long-term potential for gold’s uptrend. But not a single one could tell me why the rally would continue, other than because the experts say so.
To know whether a diamond is real, it must cut glass. And, to know whether the bull market in gold is real, it must encompass at least one of these FOUR traits:

1. A surge in demand that outpaces supply
2. A falling stock market, which raises the “safe haven” appeal of precious metals.
3. A real (not imagined) threat of inflation
4. An increase in value relative to major foreign currencies

Right now, the Gold market can NOT check off a single one of these items. Case in point:

Supply: Demand for gold from jewelry makers – which comprises 60%-70% of the market – has plummeted to its lowest level in 20 years.

“Safe haven” appeal: From its March 2009 bottom, the U.S. stock market has soared 50% right alongside rallying gold prices.

Inflation: As the October 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF) notes: An increase in money supply is only inflationary if it is used to RAISE the total amount of credit. This is NOT happening, as both bank credit and consumer credit levels are contracting for the first time since World War II.

A gold rally in other currencies: Again, the October 2009 EWFF presents the following close-up of Spot Gold prices VERSUS Gold denominated in foreign currencies such as the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the euro, franc, pound, and yen since 2007.

(Click to Enlarge)

The major non-confirmation between these two markets is clear, as is the overlying message: IF demand for gold truly outweighed supply, then its value as measured in other currencies would increase.

The rise in gold is primarily the result of speculation and a falling U.S. dollar. These are exactly the “untenable” forces that contribute to a Bubble, not a genuine Bull market. The difference is only a matter of time.
For long-term forecasts and more in-depth, historical analysis for precious metals, download Prechter’s FREE 40-page eBook on Gold and Silver.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

Death of the Dollar, Again: Before You Mourn, See This Chart

2009-10-11T17:13:00.000-07:00

October 9, 2009

The following article is based on analysis from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. For more insights from Robert Prechter, download the 75-page eBook Independent Investor eBook. It’s a compilation of some of the New York Times bestselling author’s writings that challenge conventional financial market assumptions. Visit Elliott Wave International to download the eBook, free.

By Nico Isaac

If you want the latest news on the U.S. Dollar Index, try a search under its new ticker symbol, RIP. -- as in, "rest in peace." Let the record show: In the early morning hours of Tuesday, October 6, the mainstream financial community officially declared "The Demise of the Dollar" (The Independent).
The "coroner's report" cites these details as the causes of death:

* An alleged (and later denied) secret meeting among leaders of certain Arab States, China, Russia, and France which aimed for the immediate discontinuation of oil trading in U.S. dollars.
* And, an open statement from one senior United Nations official that proposed the dollar be replaced as the world's reserve currency.

In the words of a recent Washington Post story: "The growing international chorus wants the dollar replaced... a move that would end the greenback's six-decades of global dominance."

And with that, the line between negative sentiment -- AND -- "EXTREME" negative sentiment was crossed. It occurs when the beliefs about a market lean so far over in one direction, that the boat investors are sitting in is about to tip over... Just like the last time.

Case in point: Spring 2008. The U.S. dollar stood at an all-time record low against the euro after plunging more than 40% in value. And, according to the usual experts, the greenback was "dead"-set to meet its maker. On this, these news items from early 2008 say plenty:

* "The dollar is a terribly flawed currency and its days are numbered." (Wall Street Journal quote)
* "It's basically the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit expansion based on the dollar as the world's reserve currency." (George Soros at the World Economic Forum)
* "Greenback is losing Global Appeal... the 'Almighty' Dollar is Gone." (Associated Press)

YET -- from its March 2008 bottom, the U.S. dollar came back to life with a vengeance, soaring in a one-year long winning streak to multi-year highs. In the most current Elliott Wave Theorist (published September 15, 2009), Bob Prechter presents the following close-up of the Dollar Index since that trend-turning bottom. (some Elliott wave labels have been removed for this publication)

At a measly 6% bulls, the bearish dollar boat tipped over. The situation today is even more remarkable: The percentage of bulls is lower, at 3-4%, while the dollar's value is higher than the March 2008 level.

It's crucial to understand that markets don't necessarily respond to sentiment extremes immediately. But, such extremes do indicate exhaustion of the trend -- which is usually the opposite of what the mainstream expects.

For more information, download Robert Prechter’s free Independent Investor eBook. The 75-page resource teaches investors to think independently by challenging conventional financial market assumptions.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

How a Kid With a Ruler Can Make a Million

2009-09-24T13:32:00.000-07:00

A Lesson in Drawing and Using Trendlines
September 24, 2009

The following article is adapted from a brand-new 50-page ebook from Elliott Wave International. Learn more about The Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook, and download your free copy here.

By Jeffrey Kennedy

When I began my career as an analyst, I was lucky enough to have some time with a few old pros.

One in particular that I will always remember told me that a kid with a ruler could make a million dollars in the markets. He was talking about trendlines. I was sold.

I spent nearly three years drawing trendlines and all sorts of geometric shapes on price charts. And you know, that grizzled old trader was only half right.

Trendlines are one the most simple and dynamic tools an analyst can employ... but I have yet to make my million dollars, so he was wrong -- or at least early -- on that point.

Despite being extremely useful, trendlines are often overlooked. I guess it’s just human nature to discard the simple in favor of the complicated.

(Heaven knows, if they don’t understand it, it must work, right?)

In the chart above, I have drawn a trendline using two lows that occurred in early August and September of 2003.

As you can see, each time prices approached this line, they reversed course and advanced.

Sometimes, soybeans only fell to near this line before turning up.

Other times, prices broke through momentarily before resuming the larger uptrend.

What still amazes me is that two seemingly insignificant lows in 2002 pointed the direction of soybeans -- and identified several potential buying opportunities -- for the next six months!

Get more lessons like the one above in the free 50-page Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook. Learn more and download your free copy here.

Jeffrey Kennedy is the Chief Commodity Analyst at Elliott Wave International (EWI). With more than 15 years of experience as a technical analyst, he writes and edits Futures Junctures, EWI's premier commodity forecasting service.

Updated 2009 S&P 500 Opening Range Chart

2009-09-19T00:50:00.000-07:00

S&P 500 Index (click to enlarge)

Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX(click to enlarge)

The volume spikes on Friday can be attributed to options expiration. As markets across the globe made new highs for the year, the momentum in this new U.S.Market high is fading. Both the S&P 500 and the NDX are approached a new opening range level. This should act as resistance.

S&P 600 Small Cap Index(click to enlarge)

Russell 2000 Index (click to enlarge)

Ten Year Treasury Rate (click to enlarge)

Light Sweet Crude (click to enlarge)

U.S. Dollar Index (click to enlarge)

Germany's DAX: FREE Insight Into Europe's Leading Economy

2009-09-17T23:51:00.000-07:00

September 17, 2009

By Elliott Wave International

It's one of the first rules in the book of mainstream economic wisdom: a country's economy is the thermometer which "reads" its stock market's temperature. If financial conditions are heating up, stocks rise; if they are cooling down, stocks fall. Were it so simple -- millionaires wouldn't make up a measly .15% of the global population.

Obviously, there's a major flaw with this logic; namely, it isn't true. Time and again, stock prices smolder to near boiling even as economic growth chills to the bone. (The opposite also holds: Stock prices cool down even as the economy is on fire.)

Take, for instance, Germany's main stock index, the DAX 30. On August 13, Europe's number one economy reported a .3% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) -- Germany's first quarter of growth since January 2008. Soon after, the DAX began to rally and finished the day at a fresh, ten-month high.

In no time at all, every financial media outlet from Wall Street to la-la land had their story: "Germany's DAX rose nearly 1% on the GDP data. The big picture will be one of ongoing gradual recovery through 2010." (LA Times)

One problem: the DAX's bullish flame has been burning since the index landed at a two-year low on March 9, 2009. YET -- the economic data over those six months has been about as "hot" as the Arctic Circle. Here, the following news stories from the time say plenty:

* March 24, Wall Street Journal: "There's a slew of evidence that Germany is in an economic freefall: A 19% drop in industrial output, a 23% decline in exports, a 35% drop in new manufacturing orders, and on. The numbers we're seeing are just mind-boggling."

(FreeWeek Kicks Off With Germany: On September 16, EWI launched its first-ever FreeWeek featuring its youngest subscriber services: European Short Term Update and Asian-Pacific Short Term Update. Take advantage of this amazing opportunity. Click HERE to sign on and get invaluable insight into Europe's #1 market.)

* April 30, New York Times reveals a 17% year-over-year decline in Germany's exports and writes, "With 47% of its GDP generated by exports, Germany would suffer a severe contraction in its economy."
* May 16, Wall Street Journal: "In the fourth-quarter 2009, Germany's GDP plunged 3.5%; its worst performance in nearly four decades."
* May 17: Tens of thousands of German workers march through downtown Berlin to express their anxiety over the alarming increase in unemployment: at 7.7%.
* June 29 Associated Press: Germany's GDP has now fallen by nearly 7% in the past four quarters with widespread expectations for a 5.5% to 6% contraction by the years end.
* July 3 WSJ: "Germany's own recession is the deepest of any major economy in the world, apart from Japan."
* September 8 speech by Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel: "We are in the worst economic crisis that the Federal Republic of Germany has experienced in 60 years."

You get the picture: During the DAX's entire six-month long winning streak, Germany's economic figures have been bleaker than bleak. The mainstream correlation was broken in its box along with any pre-emptive opportunity to position for the uptrend.

That, however, was NOT the case for EWI's European Financial Forecast. Here, the following archive of our analysis shows the extent to which objective analysis of the market's internal measures keeps traders ahead of the biggest moves:

March 2009 European Financial Forecast(release date: February 25)

"We favor the fourth-wave contracting triangle interpretation for the DAX. The DAX broke through a solid support shelf at 4014 this week so selling pressure could intensify before we see a notable rally." The end of the wave v decline should come near 3440.

March 6 European Short Term Update (ESTU):

"The DAX situation is similar to the entire region. We believe that the market is closing in on a low; perhaps it's a week away from finding a decent bottom."
On March 9, the index did indeed "find" its bottom at 3588.

March 13 ESTU:

"We must entertain the possibility that the low earlier this week may hold for a time, weeks or months, and the risk-reward equation is not as heavily favorable for the bears."

So, where will Germany's DAX be headed next? Find out at the unbeatable price of $0.00. No, that's not a typo; it's how much it will cost you to read objective insight, view original price charts, and recieve trend-breaking, and making details about Germany's DAX for a full seven days. These are just few of the benefits of EWI's first-ever FreeWeek featuring European Short Term Update, and its Asian-Pacific counterpart.

FreeWeek continues from September 16 through September 23. Get all the details on how to participate in this amazing offer today.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

How A Bear Can Be Bullish And Still Be Right

2009-09-08T15:13:00.000-07:00

Bob Prechter: the only good label is an Elliott wave label...

September 8, 2009

By Nico Isaac

In recent months, Elliott Wave International President Bob Prechter has become something of a household name. In the final two days of August 2009 alone, Bob was mentioned by several news outlets from MarketWatch to the New York Times. The claim to his "fame" --

EWI was one of the only technical analysis firms to anticipate a sharp rally in U.S. stocks as they circled the drain of a 12-year low this spring, a feat made ever more exceptional considering the widespread image of Bob as being the ultimate "Big, Bad Bear."

The lesson? Believe in the facts, not in the "widespread image."

Bob Prechter has always said that successful forecasting should look to the current wave count (and various other technical measures) for direction. He has never permanently tied himself to the mast of definition -- i.e. "bull" or "bear."

For this reason, EWI's team of analysts have been able to stay one step ahead of the biggest turning points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from the very start of the index's historic 2007 reversal.

To wit: This two-year chart of the Dow incorporates several calls from our past publications as they coincided with the market's most memorable peaks and troughs:

-----------------------------------------------------------------
For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a free 10-page July issue of Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.
------------------------------------------------------------------

The chart above presents the abstract details of our past analysis. Here is the expanded version of those insights as they appeared in real-time:

July 17, 2007 TheElliott Wave Theorist:

"Aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position now. We may be early by a couple of weeks, but the market has traced out the minimum expected rise, and that's enough to act on."

Soon after, as the DJIA neared its own historic Oct. 11, 2007 apex, the Oct. 9 and 10 Short Term Update amped up the urgency of its analysis and wrote:

“Odds have increased that a market high is in place. The structure, coupled with turns in the other markets, suggests a top is in place. The potential, at the least, is four a large selloff... Watch Out! The market faces a stout correction."

Before landing at its March 10, 2008 bottom, the March 5 Short Term Update afforded respect to a bullish alternate count and wrote: "Prices should carry above the wave a high (13165) before it ends."

At its four-month high, the March 16 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist went on high, bearish alert and wrote: The DJIA is entering "Free Fall territory."

One week before the U.S. stock market landed at its 12-year low of March 9, our Feb. 27, 2009 Short Term Update utilized a traditional turning pattern to outline a specific time window for the onset of a major upside reversal. In STU's own words:

"By all indication, this pattern is back on track... the turn will come on or near March 10, 2009. Anywhere in this time period may mark a turn, which will obviously be a market low."

Once the bullish winds of change had turned, the March 16 Short Term Update wrote:

"When the market speaks, it behooves us to listen. The implications of this are that the... major stock indexes are in the initial stages of a multi-month advance."

Finally, the April 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast calculated a specific target range for the Dow's rally: the 9,000-10,000 level.

So, now that the upside objective is met, where are prices set to go next? For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a free 10-page July issue of Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

Prechter Stands Alone Again... He's Done the Math

2009-09-04T15:16:00.000-07:00

By Neil Beers

So Bob Prechter is bearish again.

That may be no surprise to some, but recall that Prechter was about the only bull on February 23 of this year when he covered the short position he had recommended on July 17, 2007. That was nearly two years later and 800 points lower in the S&P. And the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) reading for the S&P had gotten down to only 3% bulls!

His February 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist explained, "The market is compressed, and when it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short." Elliott Wave analysis, the DSI, and other indicators suggested it was time for a Primary-degree bear market rally. And that is what we got.

Now in his August 2009 Theorist, Bob explains what "the prudent thing to do" in the markets is, based on the same Elliott wave pattern and sentiment indicators -- plus the Dow's 3/8 Fibonacci retracement from the March 9 low.

For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a free 10-page July issue of Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

What's so special about Fibonacci? And why is a certain level of Fibonacci retracement so significant in conjunction with The Wave Principle? Well...

In its broadest sense, the Wave Principle suggests the idea that the same law [the Golden Ratio] that shapes living creatures and galaxies is inherent in the spirit and activities of men en masse. Because the stock market is the most meticulously tabulated reflector of mass psychology in the world, its data produce an excellent recording of man's social psychological states and trends. This record of the fluctuating self-evaluation of social man's own productive enterprise makes manifest specific patterns of progress and regress. What the Wave Principle says is that mankind's progress (of which the stock market is a popularly determined valuation) does not occur in a straight line, does not occur randomly, and does not occur cyclically. Rather, progress takes place in a "three steps forward, two steps back" fashion, a form that nature prefers. More grandly, as the activity of social man is linked to the Fibonacci sequence and the spiral pattern of progression, it is apparently no exception to the general law of ordered growth in the universe. ... The briefest way to express this principle is a simple mathematical statement: the 1.618 ratio.

-Elliott Wave Principle, chapter 3

Fibonacci ratios in conjunction with The Wave Principle can help you anticipate trend changes. They allow you to calculate specific price levels of when and where a wave is likely to end. In this case, where the rally from the March 9 low is likely to end. There are several Fibonacci retracements that appear most commonly, so the market could of course move higher before it settles on the next wave down, "but we are no longer compelled to wait."

Bob Prechter's August Elliott Wave Theorist published a week and a half early: he did so to give subscribers time to prepare for what's ahead. The issue provides a list of levels that mark Fibonacci and Elliott-wave related retracements for the rally. He analyzes which one is the most likely end point, and even explains how you can make the most of the waning rally.

You don't have to be taken by surprise. Get the latest Elliott Wave Theorist and you'll see where the rally is likely to end. Think about the difference this knowledge can make for you.

For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page July issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.

Neil Beers has a bachelors degrees in political science and philosophy, and a masters in classical languages. His broad range of study and focus on ancient and modern thought led him to Elliott Wave International to research and write about the Wave Principle, Socionomics, and human social behavior.

How IRAs Can Tie Investors' Hands -- and What To Do About It

2009-09-02T20:53:00.000-07:00

By Susan C. Walker

Editor's Note: The following article discusses Robert Prechter's view of investment vehicles and government-regulated plans. For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a free 10-page July issue of Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

It's a blessing and a curse. IRAs, 401(k)s, thrift plans -- some of the best ways to save money for retirement (the blessing) can tie your hands when you invest that money (the curse). Most savers didn't recognize the cursed side as the markets generally trended up over the years, increasing their nest eggs' earnings. But after a year like 2008, savers everywhere absorbed the shock that they couldn't protect their retirement savings from a bear market. Now, the real moment of truth arrives: EWI forecasts that the market will again turn bearish. How can you protect what you've got when your plan doesn't have any options for short-side investing? Bob Prechter addresses that question in his most recent Theorist.

* * * * *

Excerpted from The Elliott Wave Theorist, by Robert Prechter, published August 5, 2009

Investment Vehicles and Government-Regulated Plans

We receive many emails from subscribers asking specific questions about investing [such as,] “Is it O.K. to invest in such-and-such short fund if that is my only short-side option?” Again, given the market-tracking mechanics of such funds, the only answer we can give in good conscience is “no.” … But every question prompts others. Why is this our friend’s “only option”? The funds mentioned are the only ones in which a “long” is really a short, so we would guess that our friend has some sort of government-regulated retirement plan that allows only “long-side” purchases.

Others with retirement plans similarly complain that their plans do not include the option of owning Treasury-only paper and ask if such-and-such other money fund is safe enough to buy. In our view, most money funds assuredly do not offer the level of safety that we advocate. Moreover, such plans are often administered by brokers, and brokers will be in chaos during wave 3 down.

These questions reveal just some of the problems an investor encounters when playing the government’s games. Conquer the Crash (see Ch. 23) recommended taking every opportunity to cash out of IRAs, Keoughs, company-provided plans, etc., all of which are government regulated, thereby freeing up your money so that you would have full say over its use.

By signing up for one of the government’s “deals,” a potential short seller now has no good choices and is therefore effectively barred from selling short. A prudent investor who wants to own the safest debt may likewise be barred from buying T-bills if he participates in a government-regulated, company retirement plan. Should he buy the only money fund available and cross his fingers? Government rules often force people into bad decisions. In this case, the “good deal” the government engineered for your retirement is a trap that prohibits you—at the most important time in modern history—from buying the safest debt instruments and from making money in a bear market….

Irony attends both financial markets and government plans. Put them together—as we have witnessed throughout the financial crisis so far—and you get Kafka.

For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page July issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company.

Efficient Market Hypothesis: True "Villain" of the Financial Crisis?

2009-08-26T14:27:00.000-07:00

By Robert Folsom

Editor's Note: The following article discusses Robert Prechter's view of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. For more information, download this free 10-page issue of Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

When a maverick idea becomes vindicated, there's a good story to tell. It usually involves a person (or small group of people) who courageously challenge the orthodoxy of the day -- and, over time, the unorthodox yet better idea prevails.

A "good story" of this sort has surfaced during the current financial crisis. A chapter of the story appeared in a recent New York Times article, "Poking Holes in a Theory on Markets." The theory in question is the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which the article suggested is so hazardous that it "is more or less responsible for the financial crisis." This quote tells you most of what you need to know:

"In the last decade, the efficient market hypothesis, which had been near dogma since the early 1970s, has taken some serious body blows. First came the rise of the behavioral economists, like Richard H. Thaler at the University of Chicago and Robert J. Shiller at Yale, who convincingly showed that mass psychology, herd behavior and the like can have an enormous effect on stock prices — meaning that perhaps the market isn't quite so efficient after all. Then came a bit more tangible proof: the dot-com bubble, quickly followed by the housing bubble. Quod erat demonstrandum."

In case your Latin is rusty, Quod erat demonstrandum means "which was to be demonstrated." Its abbreviation (QED) appears at the conclusion of a mathematical proof. In this case, the massive financial bubbles of recent years are the proof that refutes the efficient market hypothesis, which argues that markets move in a "random walk" and are not patterned.

Similar articles in the financial press have reported the demise of the EMH. Just this week an Economist magazine blog included this bold declaration:

"No one has yet produced a version of the EMH which can be tested and fits the evidence. Thus, the EMH must logically be discarded, as a valid hypothesis must be testable."

QED, indeed -- I agreed years ago that the random walk was implausible. But I didn't come to this view because of behavioral economists, although their work over the past decade has certainly been valuable. Instead, I was persuaded by the work of someone who first challenged the financial orthodoxy more than three decades ago, specifically April 1977. As a young technical analyst at Merrill Lynch in New York, his research circulated among several of Merrill's clients. His name for these studies was the Elliott Wave Theorist: the April '77 study was a detailed analysis of the 1975-76 stock market, which offered this comment on the random walk model:

"If market moves are arbitrary (as the random walk proponents suggest), then internal components would rarely 'make sense' mathematically, and then only by statistically insignificant fluke occurrences. However, there seems to be enough evidence that mass psychology, as recorded in the Dow Jones Industrials, form patterns that are uncannily interrelated....At least this much can be fairly reliably stated as a result of this work: This idea that the market is a 'random walk' is probably false."

Robert Prechter left Merrill soon after; he has published the Elliott Wave Theorist in every month since. Every issue has, in one way or another, "convincingly showed that mass psychology, herd behavior and the like can have an enormous effect on stock prices."

So while there may be a good story to tell about behavioral economists, I trust you see why I believe there is a vastly better one to tell.

The "enormous effect" of "mass psychology" and "herd behavior" is exactly what explains the financial downturn that began in late 2007. Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist anticipated the crisis and warned subscribers beforehand. Likewise, he alerted them to the bear market rally that began last March.

For more information from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.

Robert Folsom is a financial writer and editor for Elliott Wave International. He has covered politics, popular culture, economics and the financial markets for two decades, via print, radio and the Internet. Robert earned his degree in political science from Columbia University in 1985.

The Bounce Is Aging, But The Depression Is Young

2009-08-20T13:59:00.000-07:00

By Bob Prechter

The following is an excerpt from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. Elliott Wave International is currently offering Bob's recent Elliott Wave Theorist, free.

On February 23, EWT called for the S&P to bottom in the 600s and then begin a sharp rally, the biggest since the 2007 high. The S&P bottomed at 667 on March 6. Then the stock market and commodities went almost straight up for three months as the dollar fell.

On March 18, Treasury bonds had their biggest up day ever, thanks to the Fed’s initiating its T-bond buying program. The next day, EWT reiterated our bearish stance on Treasury bonds. T-bond futures declined relentlessly from the previous day’s high at 130-15 to a low of 111-21 on June 11.

That’s when there were indications of impending trend changes. The June 11 issue called for interim tops in stocks, metals and oil and a temporary bottom in the dollar. The Dow topped that day and fell nearly 800 points; silver reversed and fell from $16 to $12.45; gold slid about $90; and oil, which had just doubled, reversed and fell from $73.38 to $58.32. The dollar simultaneously rallied and traced out a triangle for wave 4. Bonds bounced as well. As far as I can tell, our scenarios at all degrees are all on track.

Corrective patterns can be complex, so we should hesitate to be too specific about the shape this bear market rally will take. But from lows on July 8 (intraday) and 10 (close), the stock market may have begun the second phase of advance that will fulfill our ideal scenario for a three-wave (up-down-up) rally. In concert with rising stocks, bonds have started another declining wave, and the dollar appears to have turned down in wave 5 (see chart in the June issue), heading toward its final low. Although commodities should bounce, their wave patterns suggest that many key commodities will fail to make new highs this year in this second and final phase of partial recovery in the overall financial markets.

Meanwhile, our forecast for a change in people’s attitudes to a less pessimistic outlook is proceeding apace. Here are some of the reports evidencing this change:

More than 90 percent of economists predict the recession will end this year. [The] vast majority pick 3rd quarter as the time. (AP, 5/27)
Manufacturing and housing reports this week may offer signs that the recession-stricken U.S. economy is within months of hitting bottom, economists said. (USA, 6/15)

Fewer people say they’ve prospered over the past year than in decades, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. Over the past two months, however, expectations for the future have brightened significantly amid rising optimism about a stock market rebound and economic turnaround. “I think the administration is going in the right direction,” says… Now 36% of those surveyed in the Gallup-Healthways well-being poll say the economy is getting better. That’s not exactly head-over-heels exuberance, but it is double the number who felt that way at the beginning of the year and a notable spike in the nation’s frame of mind. Thirty-three percent say they’re satisfied with the way things are going in the United States; in January, just 13% did. (USA, 6/23/09)

If only to confirm the socionomic causality at work, an economist quoted in the article above muses, “The one anomaly in the puzzle is that people shouldn’t be feeling better because the jobs market is so terrible and unemployment is likely to keep rising.” Of course it would be an anomaly, and people should not feel better, if mood were exogenously caused. But it is endogenously regulated, and it precedes social actions, which produce events such as job creation and elimination. That people feel better is evident in our rising sociometer, the stock market. If the rally continues, economists will soon agree that the Fed’s “quantitative easing” and Congress’ massive spending are “working.” Those predicting more inflation and hyperinflation will have the last seeming confirmation of their opinions. Then, a few months from now, some economists will probably express similar puzzlement when the stock market starts plummeting again despite the fact that the economy has improved.

But all of these considerations are temporary. Conditions are relative, and behind the scenes, the depression has been, and still is, grinding away.

For more information, download the FREE 10-page issue of Bob Prechter’s recent Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

Are These 4 Emotional Pitfalls Sabotaging Your Trading?

2009-08-13T13:42:00.000-07:00

By Jeffrey Kennedy

The following is an excerpt from Jeffrey Kennedy’s Trader’s Classroom Collection. Now through August 17, Elliott Wave International is offering a special 45-page Best Of Trader’s Classroom eBook, free.

To be a consistently successful trader, the most important trait to learn is emotional discipline. I discovered this the hard way trading full-time a few years ago. I remember one day in particular. My analysis told me the NASDAQ was going to start a sizable third wave rally between 10:00-10:30 the next day... and it did. When I reviewed my trade log later, I saw that several of my positions were profitable, yet I exited each of them at a loss. My analysis was perfect. It was like having tomorrow’s newspaper today. Unfortunately, I wanted to hit a home run, so I ignored singles and doubles.

I now call this emotional pitfall the “Lottery Syndrome.” People buy lottery tickets to win a jackpot, not five or ten dollars. It is easy to pass up a small profit in hopes of scoring a larger one. Problem is, home runs are rare. My goal now is to hit a single or double, so I don’t let my profits slip away.

Since then, I’ve identified other emotional pitfalls that I would like to share. See if any of these sound familiar.

Have you ever held on to a losing position because you “felt” that the market was going to come back in your favor? This is the “Inability to Admit Failure.” No one likes being wrong and for traders, being wrong usually costs money. What I find interesting is that many of us would rather lose money than admit failure. I know now that being wrong is much less expensive than being hopeful.

Another emotional pitfall that was especially tough to overcome is what I call the “Fear of Missing the Party.” This one is responsible for more losing trades than any other. Besides overtrading, this pitfall also causes you to get in too early. How many of us have gone short after a five-wave rally just to watch wave five extend? The solution is to use a time filter, which is a fancy way of saying wait a few bars before you start to dance. If a trade is worth taking, waiting for prices to confirm your analysis will not affect your profit that much. Anyway, I would much rather miss an opportunity then suffer a loss, because their will always be another opportunity.

This emotional pitfall has yet another symptom that tons of people fall victim to chasing one seemingly hot market after another. For instance, metals have been moving the past few years so everyone wants to buy Gold and Silver. Of course, when everyone is talking about it is usually the worst time to get into a market. To avoid buying tops and selling bottoms, I have found that it’s best to look for a potential trade where (and when) no one else is paying attention.

My biggest, baddest emotional monster was being the “Systems Junkie.” Early in my career I believed that I could make my millions if I had just the right system. I bought every newsletter, book and tape series that I could find. None of them worked. I even went as far as becoming a professional analyst guaranteed success, or so I thought. Well, it didn’t guarantee anything really. Analysis and trading are two separate skills; one is a skill of observation, while the other, of emotional control. Being an expert auto mechanic does not mean you can drive like an expert, much less win the Daytona 500.

I am not a psychologist or an expert in the psychology of trading. These are just a few lessons I’ve learned along the way... at quite a cost most times. But if you are serious about trading, I strongly recommend that you spend as much time examining your emotions while you are in a trade as you do your charts before you place one. What you discover may surprise you.

For more trading lessons from Jeffrey Kennedy, visit Elliott Wave International to download the Best of Trader’s Classroom eBook. Normally priced at $59, it’s free until August 17.

Jeffrey Kennedy is the Chief Commodity Analyst at Elliott Wave International (EWI). With more than 15 years of experience as a technical analyst, he writes and edits Futures Junctures, EWI's premier commodity forecasting service.

Looming Commercial Mortgage Crisis

2009-08-12T16:02:00.000-07:00

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Nassim Taleb "It is a matter of risk and responsibility, and I think the risks that were there before, these problems are still there. We still have a very high level of debt, we still have leadership that's literally incompetent ..."

THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS [9.15.08]
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Updated Opening Range Daily Charts

2009-08-02T23:32:00.001-07:00

S&P 500 Index (click to enlarge)

NDX Nasdaq 100 Index(click to enlarge)

Tim Geithner's Real Estate Adventure

2009-07-30T19:45:00.000-07:00

Home Crisis Investigation

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c

www.thedailyshow.com

Daily Show
Full Episodes

Political Humor

Joke of the Day

The Three Phases of a Trader's Education: Psychology, Money Management, Method

2009-07-23T14:25:00.000-07:00

By Jeffrey Kennedy

The following is an excerpt from Jeffrey Kennedy’s Trader’s Classroom Collection. Now through August 10, Elliott Wave International is offering a special 45-page Best Of Trader’s Classroom eBook, free.

-----------

Aspiring traders typically go through three phases in this order:

Methodology. The first phase is that all-too-familiar quest for the Holy Grail – a trading system that never fails. After spending thousands of dollars on books, seminars and trading systems, the aspiring trader eventually realizes that no such system exists.

Money Management. So, after getting frustrated with wasting time and money, the up-and-coming trader begins to understand the need for money management, risking only a small percentage of a portfolio on a given trade versus too large a bet.

Psychology. The third phase is realizing how important psychology is – not only personal psychology but also the psychology of crowds.

But it would be better to go through these phases in the opposite direction. I actually read of this idea in a magazine a few months ago but, for the life of me, can’t find the article. Even so, with a measly 15 years of experience under my belt and an expensive Ph.D. from S.H.K. University (i.e., School of Hard Knocks), I wholeheartedly agree. Aspiring traders should begin their journey at phase three and work backward.

I believe the first step in becoming a consistently successful trader is to understand how psychology plays out in your own make-up and in the way the crowd reacts to changes in the markets. The reason for this is that a trader must realize that once he or she makes a trade, logic no longer applies. This is because the emotions of fear and greed take precedence – fear of losing money and greed for more money.

Once the aspiring trader understands this psychology, it’s easier to understand why it’s important to have a defined investment methodology and, more importantly, the discipline to follow it. New traders must realize that once they join a crowd, they lose their individuality. Worse yet, crowd psychology impairs their judgment, because crowds are wrong more often than not, typically selling at market bottoms and buying at market tops.

Moving onto phase two, after the aspiring trader understands a bit of psychology, he or she can focus on money management. Money management is an important subject and deserves much more than just a few sentences. Even so, there are two issues that I believe are critical to grasp: (1) risk in terms of individual trades and (2) risk as a percentage of account size.

When sizing up a trading opportunity, the rule-of-thumb I go by is 3:1. That is, if my risk on a given trading opportunity is $500, then the profit objective for that trade should equal $1,500, or more. With regard to risk as a percentage of account size, I’m more than comfortable utilizing the same guidelines that many professional money managers use – 1%-3% of the account per position. If your trading account is $100,000, then you should risk no more than $3,000 on a single position. Following this guideline not only helps to contain losses if one’s trade decision is incorrect, but it also insures longevity. It’s one thing to have a winning quarter; the real trick is to have a winning quarter next year and the year after.

When aspiring traders grasp the importance of psychology and money management, they should then move to phase three – determining their methodology, a defined and unwavering way of examining price action. I principally use the Wave Principle as my methodology. However, wave analysis certainly isn’t the only way to view price action. One can choose candlestick charts, Dow Theory, cycles, etc. My best advice in this realm is that whatever you choose to use, it should be simple. In fact, it should be simple enough to put on the back of a business card, because, like an appliance, the fewer parts it has, the less likely it is to break down.

For more trading lessons from Jeffrey Kennedy, visit Elliott Wave International to download the Best of Trader’s Classroom eBook. It’s free until August 10.

Jeffrey Kennedy is the Chief Commodity Analyst at Elliott Wave International (EWI). With more than 15 years of experience as a technical analyst, he writes and edits Futures Junctures, EWI's premier commodity forecasting service.

The Versatility of The Wave Principle

2009-07-16T19:07:00.000-07:00

In this classic Elliott Wave International educational video, Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy demonstrates the versatility of The Wave Principle by showing you how to identify high-probability trade set-ups at-a-glance, and in any market. Watch the video and then find out how to access Jeff's current high-probability commodity forecasts FREE during EWI's FreeWeek - but only until July 22.

The Versatility of The Wave Principle

Get the best daily commodity picks FREE, but only until July 22!

Deflation is Winning. Are You?

2009-07-02T14:24:00.000-07:00

The mainstream media couldn't predict the biggest bear market in 100 years; how do you expect them to anticipate what will unfold next? Watch this quick video clip from financial analyst and sought-after speaker Steven Hochberg about why you should challenge the consensus view for inflation. Then access the full 20-minute video, FREE.

Deflation is Winning. Are You?

Watch the full presentation, FREE. Click Here!

Five Fatal Flaws of Trading

2009-06-26T13:33:00.000-07:00

By Jeffrey Kennedy

Close to ninety percent of all traders lose money. The remaining ten percent somehow manage to either break even or even turn a profit – and more importantly, do it consistently. How do they do that?

That's an age-old question. While there is no magic formula, one of Elliott Wave International's senior instructors Jeffrey Kennedy has identified five fundamental flaws that, in his opinion, stop most traders from being consistently successful. We don't claim to have found The Holy Grail of trading here, but sometimes a single idea can change a person's life. Maybe you'll find one in Jeffrey's take on trading? We sincerely hope so.

The following is an excerpt from Jeffrey Kennedy’s Trader’s Classroom Collection. For a limited time, Elliott Wave International is offering Jeffrey Kennedy’s report, How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups, free.

Why Do Traders Lose?

If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.

Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, 'How do you stop the Hand?' Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.

Fatal Flaw No. 1 – Lack of Methodology

If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won’t work over the long run. If you don’t have a defined trading methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can’t even consistently correctly identify the trend.

How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn’t matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on the back of a business card, it’s probably too complicated.

Fatal Flaw No. 2 – Lack of Discipline

When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.

Fatal Flaw No. 3 – Unrealistic Expectations

Between you and me, nothing makes me angrier than those commercials that say something like, "...$5,000 properly positioned in Natural Gas can give you returns of over $40,000..." Advertisements like this are a disservice to the financial industry as a whole and end up costing uneducated investors a lot more than $5,000. In addition, they help to create the third fatal flaw: Unrealistic Expectations.

Yes, it is possible to experience above-average returns trading your own account. However, it’s difficult to do it without taking on above-average risk. So what is a realistic return to shoot for in your first year as a trader – 50%, 100%, 200%? Whoa, let’s rein in those unrealistic expectations. In my opinion, the goal for every trader their first year out should be not to lose money. In other words, shoot for a 0% return your first year. If you can manage that, then in year two, try to beat the Dow or the S&P. These goals may not be flashy but they are realistic, and if you can learn to live with them – and achieve them – you will fend off the Hand.
----------------------------------------------
For a limited time, Elliott Wave International is offering Jeffrey Kennedy’s report, How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups, free.
----------------------------------------------
Fatal Flaw No. 4 – Lack of Patience

The fourth finger of the invisible hand that robs your trading account is Lack of Patience. I forget where, but I once read that markets trend only 20% of the time, and, from my experience, I would say that this is an accurate statement. So think about it, the other 80% of the time the markets are not trending in one clear direction.

That may explain why I believe that for any given time frame, there are only two or three really good trading opportunities. For example, if you’re a long-term trader, there are typically only two or three compelling tradable moves in a market during any given year. Similarly, if you are a short-term trader, there are only two or three high-quality trade setups in a given week.

All too often, because trading is inherently exciting (and anything involving money usually is exciting), it’s easy to feel like you’re missing the party if you don’t trade a lot. As a result, you start taking trade setups of lesser and lesser quality and begin to over-trade.

How do you overcome this lack of patience? The advice I have found to be most valuable is to remind yourself that every week, there is another trade-of-the-year. In other words, don’t worry about missing an opportunity today, because there will be another one tomorrow, next week and next month ... I promise.

I remember a line from a movie (either Sergeant York with Gary Cooper or The Patriot with Mel Gibson) in which one character gives advice to another on how to shoot a rifle: 'Aim small, miss small.' I offer the same advice in this new context. To aim small requires patience. So be patient, and you’ll miss small."

Fatal Flaw No. 5 – Lack of Money Management

The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, and this topic deserves more than just a few paragraphs, because money management encompasses risk/reward analysis, probability of success and failure, protective stops and so much more. Even so, I would like to address the subject of money management with a focus on risk as a function of portfolio size.

Now the big boys (i.e., the professional traders) tend to limit their risk on any given position to 1% - 3% of their portfolio. If we apply this rule to ourselves, then for every $5,000 we have in our trading account, we can risk only $50-$150 on any given trade. Stocks might be a little different, but a $50 stop in Corn, which is one point, is simply too tight a stop, especially when the 10-day average trading range in Corn recently has been more than 10 points. A more plausible stop might be five points or 10, in which case, depending on what percentage of your total portfolio you want to risk, you would need an account size between $15,000 and $50,000.

Simply put, I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. And that doesn’t even address the size that they trade (i.e., multiple contracts).

To overcome this fatal flaw, let me expand on the logic from the 'aim small, miss small' movie line. If you have a small trading account, then trade small. You can accomplish this by trading fewer contracts, or trading e-mini contracts or even stocks. Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that one key is longevity. If your risk on any given position is relatively small, then you can weather the rough spots. Conversely, if you risk 25% of your portfolio on each trade, after four consecutive losers, you’re out all together.

Break the Hand’s Grip

Trading successfully is not easy. It’s hard work ... damn hard. And if anyone leads you to believe otherwise, run the other way, and fast. But this hard work can be rewarding, above-average gains are possible and the sense of satisfaction one feels after a few nice trades is absolutely priceless. To get to that point, though, you must first break the fingers of the Hand that is holding you back and stealing money from your trading account. I can guarantee that if you attend to the five fatal flaws I’ve outlined, you won’t be caught red-handed stealing from your own account.

For more information on trading successfully, visit Elliott Wave International to download Jeffrey Kennedy’s free report, How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups.

Jeffrey Kennedy is the Chief Commodity Analyst at Elliott Wave International (EWI). With more than 15 years of experience as a technical analyst, he writes and edits Futures Junctures, EWI's premier commodity forecasting package.

Updated 2009 S&P 500 Opening Range Chart

2009-06-26T01:23:00.000-07:00

S&P 500 Index Bouncing In Yearly Opening Range (click to enlarge)

Soon To Be U.S. Ambassador to Iran

A Road Map To SENSEX 100,000

2009-06-17T00:54:00.000-07:00

By Mark Galasiewski

This article was originally published as a special Interim Report of EWI's Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast on March 23, 2009. Since then the SENSEX has risen as much as 65%. For a limited time, Elliott Wave International is offering a full 10-page issue of the Asian Pacific Financial Forecast, Discover The Bull Markets You’re Missing, free.

**********************************************

Prices in India’s SENSEX have just broken above a downtrend line, imitating a pattern from 2004 that led to a strong rally. This interim report updates our wave count for India, since its wave pattern in particular may offer investors a rewarding long-term opportunity.

In the March 2009 issue of The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, we showed how pattern, price, time and sentiment considerations were pointing to the end of multi-month, five-wave declines in most major Asian-Pacific indexes by late March. In most cases, those lows have likely been achieved.

Although we have looked for a fifth wave down to below the October low in the SENSEX, it has failed to materialize. That failure plus the recent sharp reversal rally prompts our return to an earlier wave count. The daily SENSEX chart shows how the decline since the 2008 high can be counted as three waves. A three-wave decline opens the possibility of a rally back to near the 2008 highs. But there is reason to set our sights even higher.

Perhaps the best argument for a bull market in Indian stocks is the potential fractal relationship we identified in the November 2008 issue, published just four days after the October low. The weekly chart below is an updated version of the one we showed at that time. Here is our analysis from the November
issue:

“The Wave Principle teaches that the stock market is a self-similar fractal. That means that some pieces of its price record—which Ralph Nelson Elliott called waves—resemble other pieces elsewhere in that record. The weekly chart of India’s SENSEX shows just such an example.Notice how the up-down sequence labeled Intermediate waves (1) and (2) (in the small red box) is a microcosm of the larger up-down sequence from the 2003 low to the present (i.e., waves 1 and 2 , in the large black box). In both cases, the wave-two correction retraced approximately 50% of the wave-one advance. (We have calculated those retracements using the same logarithmic scale shown in the chart: logarithmic charting displays equal percentage moves proportionally).

“If we have identified this “nested fractal” relationship correctly, it means that Indian stocks are about to begin Primary wave 3 of the bull market that began in 2003. Waves 1 and 2 lasted more than four times the duration of waves (1) and (2). If that same proportion holds going forward, the SENSEX may continue advancing for 15 years before reaching the end of wave 5 .”

Since then, the analogy to the 2004 period (“The 2004 Analog”) has become even more interesting.

Just as then, prices have broken down from an apparent triangle, and then reversed and broken out above the downtrend line. In 2004, prices never looked back after the breakout. As long as prices do not fall back below the low of today’s breakout bar, we will assume that the 2003-2008 bull market will continue to provide a road map to the future of India’s stock market.

For more information emerging opportunities in Asian markets, download Elliott Wave International’s free 10-page issue of the Asian Financial Forecast.

Mark Galasiewski is the editor of Elliott Wave International’s Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast and member of EWI’s Global Market Perspective team covering Asian stock indexes.

S&P 500 Opening Range 2009 Update

2009-06-03T23:40:00.000-07:00

S&P 500 Index Opening Range

Cross Currents - Awesome Article.....

2009-05-31T20:23:00.000-07:00

Crosscurrents

The factors driving the dollar seem to vary with the season. Last fall at the height of the financial crisis safe haven flows trumped all considerations; at one point investors accepted zero return for the security of holding US debt. The dollar rose 17% against the euro in a month and made similar gains versus the Pound Sterling, the Canadian Dollar, the Swiss Franc the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. But even at maximum market panic dollar superiority was not total; the imploding yen carry trade drove the dollar down against the yen to 90 to the dollar despite the huge inward flows to US securities.

The dollar’s virtues last fall were very specific; in a catastrophe everyone’s first choice for safety was American debt. The dollar’s competitive value was not the point, only its supposed security mattered. But those conditions could not last, and as the financial crisis became an economic crisis and the threat of financial system collapse waned the fear of wholesale loss of investment principal ebbed. In moderating circumstances the funds that had been stashed in States for safety (and little or no return) began to be withdrawn seeking other more productive currency and investments.

The degree of panic into the dollar last fall guaranteed a reverse move out of the dollar; but until the recent move that began on May 20th, the euro had stayed below the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the July to October 2008 collapse

The euro US dollar equilibrium held from mid March until mid May with the pair largely confined to the range of 1.3100 and 1.3600. The original burst through that range on March 18th and 19th was prompted by the Federal Reserve announcement that it would buy Treasury Notes in an effort to keep consumer and mortgage interest rates low; this was the so called ‘quantitative easing’ policy. The Federal Reserve Board knew that the amount of US debt scheduled for sale to the credit markets in the months ahead could undermine its low rate policy.

Mortgage rates are not set by Fed fiat but take direction from the credit markets and the most important market benchmarks are US Treasury rates. The initial market reaction to the Fed quantitative policy was extremely negative for the dollar with the euro gaining seven hundred points in two days. But despite the Fed announcement, traders seemed to forget, the market absorbed that news and the dollar regained all that it had lost after March 18th.

Enter the budget of the new American administration and their plans for the US economy. Treasury rates at the long end of the yield curve have been rising since March. The ten year note has gained 1.5% in yield in that time. The bond market clearly anticipated the impact of the government’s financing plans well before the actual auctions began. But it turmoil in the bond market did not dramatically affect the currency markets until last week.

In a classic economic comparison higher interest rates are one of the prime drivers of a currency’s worth. US rates, though not at the Federal Reserve level, are clearly headed higher but the dollar has moved from strength to weakness. Gone is the expectation that the US economy, under the spur of historically low rates and massive fiscal stimulus, will be the first industrial economy to leave the recession. Gone is the credit to the Fed’s early acknowledgement of the financial crisis and actions to mitigate the recession.

The currency market is now concerned about the US debt, about the degree of Fed quantitative easing and potential for future inflation and not about rising Treasury interest rates. There is little confidence that a government as indebted as Washington will be able to withdraw the liquidity flooding the US financial system. The may even be the suspicion that Washington will realize that monetizing the debt is probably the only politically realistic course to alleviate the debt burden

The same proactive Fed and government policies that only a few months ago were seen as strongly supportive of the US economy and the US Dollar are now the dollars nemesis. Fear for the funding needs of the Treasury, even if that fear produces higher rates, is the new driving force behind the dollar’s fall.

Joseph Trevisani
FX Solutions, LLC
Chief Market Analyst
Joe@fxsol.com

Bob Prechter: Gold is Still Money

2009-05-29T16:29:00.000-07:00

May 29, 2009

By Robert Prechter, CMT

The following article is excerpted from a brand-new eBook on gold and silver published by Robert Prechter, founder and CEO of the technical analysis and research firm Elliott Wave International. For the rest of this fascinating 40-page eBook, download it for free here.

Have you ever traveled abroad and taken a look at the local currency and wondered how the citizens of that country could take seriously what looks like “Monopoly money?” I’ve got news for you: You’re using the same stuff. Monopoly money is the money over which some government has a monopoly. It is the currency of the realm only because the state makes it illegal to use any other type.

Promissory notes issued by a state and declared the only legal tender are always doomed to depreciate to worthlessness because of the natural incentives and forces associated with governments. A state cannot resist a method of confiscating assets, particularly one that is hidden from the view of most voters and subjects. By extension, it is unreasonable to advocate a standard for such notes, which is simply a state’s promise that its currency will always be redeemable in a specific amount of something valuable, such as gold. A gold standard of this type is only as good as the political promises behind it, reducing its value to no more than that of paper. It could be argued, in fact, that a state-sponsored gold standard is far more dangerous than none at all, as it imbues citizens with a false sense of security. Their long range plans are thus built upon an unreliable promise that the monetary measuring unit will remain stable. Later, when the government’s “IOU-something specific” becomes, as Colonel E.C. Harwood put it, “IOU nothing in particular,” reliability disappears and the arbitrary reigns. Although the populace tends to retain its confidence in the currency for awhile thereafter, the ultimate result is chaos.

The only sound monetary system is a voluntary one. The free market always chooses the best possible form, or forms, of money. To date, the market’s choice throughout the centuries, wherever a free market for money has existed, has been and remains precious metal and currency redeemable in precious metal. This preference will undoubtedly remain until a better form of money is discovered and chosen. Until then, prices for goods and services should be denominated not in state fictions such as dollars or yen or francs, but in specific weights of today’s preferred monetary metal, i.e., in grams of gold. Anyone might issue promissory notes as currency, but the acceptance of such paper certificates would then be an individual decision, and risks of loss through imprudence or dishonesty would be borne by only a few individuals by their own conscious choice after considering the risks. Critical to the understanding of the wisdom of such a system is the knowledge that private issuers of paper against gold have every long run incentive to provide a sound product, just as do producers of any product. As a result, risks would be minimal, as the market would provide its own policing. Thievery and imprudence will not disappear among men, but at least such tendencies in a free market for money would not have the potential to be institutionalized, as they are when a state controls the currency. From a macroeconomic viewpoint, occasional losses resulting from dishonesty or imprudence would be extremely limited in scope, as opposed to the nationwide disasters that state controlled paper money has facilitated throughout history, which have in turn had global repercussions. As Elliott Wave Principle put it, “That paper is no substitute for gold as a store of value is probably another of nature’s laws.”

That being said, it is also true, and crucial to wise investing, that markets come in both “bull” and “bear” types. Being a “gold bug” at the wrong time can be very costly in currency terms. For nearly three decades, gold and silver’s dollar price trends have confounded the precious metals enthusiasts, who for the entire period have argued that soaring gold and silver prices were “just around the corner” because the Fed’s policies “guarantee runaway inflation.” Yet today, 29 years after the January 1980 peaks in these metals and despite consistent inflation throughout this time, their combined dollar value (weighting each metal equally) is still 40 percent less than it was then.

It is all well and good to despise fiat money, but it is hardly useful to sit in gold and silver as if no other opportunities exist. In contrast to the one-note approach, which has had an immense opportunity cost since 1980, competent market analysis can help you make many timely and profitable financial decisions in all markets, including gold and silver.

For more in-depth, historical analysis and long-term forecasts for precious metals, download Prechter’s FREE 40-page eBook on Gold and Silver.

Robert Prechter, Certified Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

S&P 500 Nasdaq 100 With Advance/Decline Charts

2009-05-11T00:04:00.000-07:00

Below are some selected charts on the S&P 500 Index and the NDX Nasdaq 100 Index.

S&P 500 Index with Advance Decline Indicator (click to enlarge)

Nasdaq 100 Index with Advance Decline Indicator (click to enlarge)

NDX 100 With Opening Range Levels (click to enlarge)

A couple charts that illustrate how helpful and profitable Triangle Patterns can be.

BAC - Bank of America (click to enlarge)

WFC - Wells Fargo (click to enlarge)

S&P 500 Index 2009 Opening Range Chart

2009-04-29T00:50:00.000-07:00

S&P 500 Index (click to enlarge)

Bank of America...Time For Lewis To Go

2009-04-27T15:50:00.000-07:00

and take his friends with him.

Comparing Linear Regression Channels

2009-04-27T13:52:00.000-07:00

Below are chart of Goldman Sachs and the S&P 500 Index. Both charts are 3 day candle stick charts, with standard deviation channels off of long, medium, and short term linear regression lines. The green line is the medium term linear regression line. The blue parallel lines are 2 standard deviations off of this medium term line.

While Goldman Sachs has been able to break through this down trending channel, the S&P 500 has paused at this area. For the over all market to get over this area of resistance, it will take time and consolidation before any strong attempt can be made to exit the channel. As volume has be drying up, the economic numbers this week will play a role in prices moving away from this channel line, one way or another.

GS - Goldman Sachs

S&P 500 Index

Think That Central Banks Move the Markets? Think Again

2009-04-23T16:19:00.000-07:00

By Mark Galasiewski

The following is excerpted from Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective. The full 120-page publication, which features forecasts for every major world market, is available free until April 30. Visit Elliott Wave International to download it free.

Conventional wisdom says that central banks can influence or even direct financial markets and the macroeconomy. The very existence of Elliott waves challenges such assumptions. For if markets responded to every central bank directive, how could Elliott waves exist? Parallel trend channels, Fibonacci price relationships, the similarity of form between waves of different sizes and time periods—none of that would be possible. Central bank decisions would have to coincide perfectly with turning points in Elliott waves, and we know that just doesn’t happen. But even without using waves, we can expose the conventional wisdom for the fallacy that it is.

Take, for example, this assertion in a recent article in a U.K. economic weekly: “Part of the aim of central banks in driving down interest rates is to encourage a greater risk appetite among investors.” Two key assumptions underlie that statement: a) central banks determine interest rates; and b) lower interest rates can increase society’s appetite for risk.

To see how the first assumption is false, let’s take a look at the daily chart of Australian interest rate data. It duplicates a study that Elliott Wave International has often done with U.S. interest rate data. It shows how movements in the cash target rate set by Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), appear to follow those in 3-month Australian Treasury Bills. After decisive moves up in T-bills from 2006 to early 2008, for example, the RBA faithfully raised its target. T-bills have since led the RBA during the financial crisis of the past year. In fact, the record indicates that the RBA almost always follows T-bills over time.

The proper conclusion to draw is not that the RBA has orchestrated the decline in rates since the early 1980s—but that it’s been riding it. During good times, central bankers look like geniuses; during bad times, they get tarred and feathered. Closer to the truth is that their interest-rate decisions are not proactive, but reactive, and that they continually follow in the footsteps of the market for lack of any other useful guide.

Now let’s look at the second assumption: that lower interest rates increase society’s appetite for risk. A simple glance at the weekly chart shows this assumption to be false. After the 1987 crash, the ASX All Ordinaries actually rallied for two years on rising rates and then sold off through 1990 on falling rates. Stocks then rose in 1991 on continued falling rates and sold off in 1992 on even lower rates. Continue following the chart to the right and you will see that there is no consistent correlation between the direction of interest rates and that of the stock market.

The myth of central bank potency is so pervasive that conventional analysts can’t even imagine a better explanation for price trends: that the market is the dog wagging its central bank tail, not the other way around.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
For more information, download Elliott Wave International’s FREE issue of Global Market Perspective, available until April 30. The 120-page publication covers every major world market, global interest rates, international currencies, metals, energy and more.

Mark Galasiewski is the editor of Elliott Wave International’s Asian Financial Forecast and member of EWI’s Global Market Perspective team covering Asian stock indexes.

Ass-Pinapple of Debt!!

2009-04-17T00:02:00.000-07:00

The Colbert Report

Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c

The Word - Have Your Cake And Eat It, Too

colbertnation.com

Colbert Report Full Episodes

Political Humor

NASA Name Contest

Key To Trading Success: Ignore Nature's Laws?

2009-03-25T17:47:00.000-07:00

The following is excerpted from Robert Prechter’s Independent Investor eBook. The 75-page eBook is a compilation of some of the New York Times bestselling author’s writings that challenge conventional financial market assumptions. Visit Elliott Wave International to download the eBook, free.

By Robert Prechter, CMT

…The natural tendency of people to apply physics to finance explains why successful traders are so rare and why they are so immensely rewarded for their skills. There is no such thing as a “born trader” because people are born — or learn very early — to respect the laws of physics. This respect is so strong that they apply these laws even in inappropriate situations. Most people who follow the market closely act as if the market is a physical force aimed at their heads. Buying during rallies and selling during declines is akin to ducking when a rock is hurtling toward you.

Successful traders learn to do something that almost no one else can do. They sell near the emotional extreme of a rally and buy near the emotional extreme of a decline. The mental discipline that a successful trader shows in buying low and selling high is akin to that of a person who sees a rock thrown at his head and refuses to duck. He thinks, I’m betting that the rock will veer away at the last moment, of its own accord. In this endeavor, he must ignore the laws of physics to which his mind naturally defaults. In the physical world, this would be insane behavior; in finance, it makes him rich.

Unfortunately, sometimes the rock does not veer. It hits the trader in the head. All he has to rely upon is percentages. He knows from long study that most of the time, the rock coming at him will veer away, but he also must take the consequences when it doesn’t. The emotional fortitude required to stand in the way of a hurtling stone when you might get hurt is immense, and few people possess it. It is, of course, a great paradox that people who can’t perform this feat get hurt over and over in financial markets and endure a serious stoning, sometimes to death. Many great truths about life are paradoxical, and so is this one.

For more information, download Robert Prechter’s free Independent Investor eBook. The 75-page resource teaches investors to think independently by challenging conventional financial market assumptions.

Robert Prechter, Certified Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

Are We Near a Low in the Stock Decline? Two Unique Charts Reveal the Answer

2009-03-20T00:49:00.000-07:00

Robert Prechter, New York Times best-selling author and renowned market analyst, was recently asked to present his thoughts on the real estate market and the financial crisis to the Georgia Legislature. The following article has been adapted from the transcript. Elliott Wave International has made the full presentation available free, including the full transcript and 30-minute online video.

By Robert Prechter, CMT

I'd like to try to answer a question: “Are we near a low in the stock decline?” Because in these times when stocks and real estate are declining together, they tend to bottom roughly together as well. So I want to take a minute and look at a valuation chart for the stock market.

What we have here on the “X” axis is the bond yield/stock yield ratio for the S&P 400 companies. Sounds fancy, but all it means is that the further you go out to the right, the less companies are paying in dividends compared to what they are paying on their IOUs—on their bonds. On the “Y” axis we have stock prices relative to book value. Book value is roughly equivalent to liquidation value, in other words, if you went and sold all the assets on the open market. When stocks get expensive, prices tend to rise relative to book value, and dividends tend to fall relative to the cost of borrowing. Why does that happen? At such times, people don't really care about dividends because they think they are going to get rich on capital gains. So dividend payout falls, and stocks get more expensive.

The small square boxes indicate year-end figures. The large box is a general area that has contained values for the stock market for most of the years of the 20th century. We had a few outliers: 1928 and August 1987, which preceded crashes in the stock market. And of course stocks were really cheap in the early '30s and again in 1941. If you are really astute, you have noticed something about this chart, which is that I've left off some of the data. It ends in 1990. What happened in the past two decades? Now I'm going to show you same chart but with the data from the last two decades on it. The March 2000 reading we call Pluto. Real estate wasn't so bad; I think it only got to about Neptune. But the stock market reached Pluto in March of 2000 in terms of the bond yield/stock yield ratio and the price multiple of the underlying values of companies. That's going to take quite awhile to retrace.

I've also plotted the reading for November 2008. The market has made quite a trek back toward normal valuations, but if you look at these multiples in terms of book value, we are at 4 times. It has to go down to 2 times to get back into the box, and we are getting there on the bond yield/stock yield ratio which means that the dividend payout is rising somewhat to catch up with borrowing costs. And because the S&P is down 45%, of course, the dividend payout as a percentage has gone up. But there is a problem there. If you're reading the newspapers, you know that companies have been cutting dividends. In fact, they've been cutting them at the fastest rate in half a century. So it is going to be difficult for values to get back to a normal valuation range. So the stock market has quite a bit lower to go in order to catch up with normal values, and this suggests that real estate may have the same sort of trend going on.

For more information, access Robert Prechter's full presentation to the Georgia Legislature, free from Elliott Wave International. It expands on the excerpt above with the full transcript, a 30- minute online video, and 12 additional charts and figures.

Robert Prechter, Certified Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

CNBC = An Empty Wagon Is the Noisiest

2009-03-05T22:45:00.000-08:00

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

CNBC Gives Financial Advice

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Joke of the Day

How is it that Jim Cramer thinks he is on some White House enemies list? It is odd how these tools, Limbaugh's and the Cramer's, think so highly of themselves that they are on some enemies list. Narcissism describes the trait of excessive self love, based on self-image or ego. The term is derived from the Greek mythology of Narcissus. Narcissus was a handsome Greek youth who rejected the desperate advances of the nymph Echo. As punishment, he was doomed to fall in love with his own reflection in a pool of water. Well evidently some also fall in love with the sound of their own voice! I wish rush could pass us some of those painkillers from his housekeeper before our heads explode.

All the talk that these type of people are out to do good for others is a tall tale. Jim Cramer will be the first to tell you how he is out there fighting for the average guy to help him make money in the market.

"I fight to help viewers and readers make and preserve capital. I fight for their 401(k)s, for their 529s and their IRAs. I fight for their annuities and for their life insurance policies. I fight for their profits, trading and investing. And in this horrible market, I fight to keep their losses to a minimum by having some good dividend-yielding stocks from different sectors, some bonds, some gold and some cash." Jim Cramer

Now Jim is not all bad, but he is still a carnival barker. He is there to get people into the tent, the tent of CNBC. The sheep who tune into his show and blindly buy buy buy get what they deserve. Many have taken enough shots of the cool-aid that they tell you all the great trades they have made. I hope that is the case. But, how hard is it to pick stocks in a raging bull sector and not make money? I have seen so many disingenuous arguments made on Mad Money. One that will always stick out is the great idea to buy an insurance company after Hurricane Katrina. To say they would benefit long term because of increased insurance rates was careless at best. To preach "do your homework" and then to recommend MRH-Montpelier Re is downright irresponsible. Homework aside, the bigger question was why of all the insurance stocks in the universe, did Jim Cramer recommend this turd. I am sure his recommendation helped someone get out of some stock, not sure who.

MRH - Montpelier Re

Someone who is championing themselves to help the average investor would not recommend buying a stock into earnings. One night I remember the great recommendation Jim made of buying Dick's Sporting Goods- DKS. The stock closed a little over $39 and was trading up over $41 in after-hours once it was mentioned on Mad Money. This stock was to have earnings released the next morning before the market opened and should have never been mentioned. The stock closed the next day at $33. If you are out to help the average investor, not recommending stocks the night before an earnings release in the morning would be a nice place to start. All the sellers at $41 that night were happy.

The people who have some really good advice and insights for the average and even the above average investors are not people you will see screaming their heads off on TV. They are people that you would feel comfortable in recommending if your parents asked who to listen to or who to read up on. The thought of people my parents age and friends who have really worked hard for their money listening to Jim Cramer get off on hearing his own voice is scary and depressing.

Time is better spent reading books by David Swensen, John Bogle, and Benjamin Graham. Trust me you will be better off and won't need medication to deal with the headache you get from CNBC.

A Better Way To Handle a Shrinking Business

2009-03-02T12:01:00.000-08:00

February 26, 2009

This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter’s FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook, part of Prechter’s NEW Deflation Survival Guide.

The following text was originally published in Robert Prechter’s February 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist

By Robert Prechter, CMT

During depressions, many businesses make a fatal mistake: They lay off employees. Some businesses have no choice; if the product or service is related more to quantity than quality, then perhaps there is no alternative. But many businesses are far better served by keeping their employees and reducing compensation. That way, they can continue to serve customers with full quality and stand ready to lead the competition when the next economic expansion arrives.

Surely most employees would rather endure an across-the-board salary cut than risk being laid off. In the 1930s, General Electric polled its workers on this very question, and the majority agreed that they would rather endure salary reductions. A few years later, when the economy recovered, GE had all of its employees in place and did not have to spend years recruiting new people. It shot out of the gate in full operating mode.
Moreover, the company had made progress improving designs and making plans during the lull. When business picked up, so did salaries. In the end, it was win-win for everyone.

Take, for example, a news service that needs to reduce costs. Instead of cutting staff by 50 percent, thereby forcing a radical reduction in the scope of the news coverage, it would make more sense to cut salaries by 50 percent and retain full service. If lowering the price of the service would keep the subscriber, viewer or listener base steady, or if reducing the cost of advertising would keep the support base steady, it would be better to make one of those moves rather than cutting staff. Either program would maintain quality and serve to keep the service in the forefront among news providers. Inflexible competitors would go out of business, thereby helping the survivors.

If an airline is in trouble, it should not cut routes and service while holding prices and salaries up. It should cut salaries and prices and continue serving the highest possible number of customers. That way, it will be the carrier of choice for many fliers when the economy returns to expansion mode. Again, everyone wins, including the employees.

This idea would work well for any business that does not have long-term contracts – such as with labor unions or high-level employees – guaranteeing salaries. Even in such a case, negotiating reductions would be smarter than going bankrupt.

This approach could work for many kinds of businesses: airlines, manufacturers, newspapers, shippers and sports teams, to name a few. If you work for a business for which this plan would serve, mention it to those in management. Even they would probably prefer a reduction in income to none at all.

Reducing salaries has another benefit, which is that fewer people would go to the state for “unemployment benefits,” reducing the strain on state budgets and taxpayers. If your business would operate better with all its employees, consider a company-wide salary reduction as opposed to layoffs.

……….

For more on deflation, download Prechter’s FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook or browse various deflation topics like those below at www.elliottwave.com/deflation.

* What happens during deflation?
* Deflation survival
* Why is deflation bad?
* Deflation personal debt
* And much more in Prechter’s FREE Deflation Survival Guide.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

Senator Rockefeller

2009-02-26T22:43:00.000-08:00

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

The Last Bastion Against Deflation: The Federal Government

2009-02-21T16:26:00.000-08:00

February 19, 2009

This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter’s FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook, part of Prechter’s NEW Deflation Survival Guide.

The following article was adapted from Robert Prechter’s NEW Deflation Survival eBook, a free 60-page compilation of Prechter’s most important teachings and warnings about deflation.

By Robert Prechter, CMT

Now that the downward portion of the credit cycle is firmly in force, further inflation is impossible. But there is one entity left that can try to stave off deflation: the federal government.

The ultimate source of all the bad credit in the U.S. financial system is Congress. Congress created the Federal Reserve System and many privileged lending corporations: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Sallie Mae, the Federal Housing Administration and the Federal Home Loan Banks, to name a few. The August issue [of The Elliott Wave Theorist] cited our estimate that the mortgage-encouraging entities that Congress created account for 75 percent of all U.S. debt creation with respect to housing. For investors in mortgage (in)securities, the ratio is even greater. Recent reports show that these agencies, which have been stealing people blind by taking interest for nothing, account for a stunning 82 percent of all securitized mortgage debt. Roughly speaking, the government directly encouraged the indebtedness of four out of five home-related borrowers. As noted in the August issue, it indirectly encouraged the rest through the Fed’s lending to banks and the FDIC’s guarantee of bank deposits. These policies allowed borrowers to drive up house prices to absurd levels, making them unaffordable to people who wanted to buy them with actual money. Proof that these mortgages are artificial and the product of something other than a free market is the fact that while Germany, for example, has issued mortgage-backed securities with a value equal to 0.2 percent of its annual GDP, the U.S. has issued them so ferociously that their value has reached 49.6 percent of annual GDP, a multiple of 250 times Germany’s rate, and that is not in total value but only in value relative to the U.S.’s much larger GDP. (Statistics courtesy of the British Treasury.)

Well, the ultimate source of this seemingly risk-free credit still exists, at least for now. When Bernanke & Co. met in the back rooms of the White House in recent weekends, he must have said this: “Boys, we’re nearly out of ammo. We have $400b. of credit left to lend, and we have two percentage points lower to go in interest rates. The only way to stave off deflation is for you to guarantee all the bad debts in the system.” So far, government has leapt to oblige. One of its representatives strode to the podium to declare that it would pledge the future production of the American taxpayer in order to trade, in essence, all the bad IOUs held by speculators in Fannie and Freddie’s mortgages for gilt-edged, freshly stamped U.S. Treasury bonds.

Now, what exactly does that mean for deflation? This latest extension of the decades-long debt-creation scheme has essentially exchanged bad IOUs for T-bonds. This move does not create inflation, but it is an attempt to stop deflation. Instead of becoming worthless wallpaper and 20-cents-on-the-dollar pieces of paper, these IOUs have, through the flap of a jaw, maintained their full, 100 percent liability. This means that the credit supply attending all these mortgages, which was in the process of collapsing, has ballooned right back up to its former level.

You might think this shift of liability is a magic potion to stave off deflation. But it’s not.

Believers in perpetual inflation will ask, “What’s to stop the U.S. government from simply adopting all bad debts, keeping the credit bubble inflated?” Answer: The U.S. government’s IOUs have a price, an interest rate and a safety rating. Just as mortgage prices, rates and safety ratings were under investors’ control, so they are for Treasuries. Remember when Bill Clinton became outraged when he found out that “a bunch of bond traders,” not politicians, determined the price of T-bonds and the interest rates that the government must charge? If investors begin to fear the government’s ability to pay interest and principal, they will move out of Treasuries the way they moved out of mortgages. The American financial system is too soaked with bad debt for a government bailout to work, and the market won’t let politicians get away with assuming all the bad debts. It may take some time for the market to figure out what to do about it, but as always, there is no such thing as a free lunch. The only question is who pays for it.

The Fed is nearly out of the picture, so the consortium of last resort, the federal government, is assuming the job of propping up the debt bubble. It is multiples bigger than any such entity that went before, because it can draw on the liquidity of American taxpayers and clandestinely steal value from American savers. So the question comes down to this: Will the public put up with more financial exploitation? To date, that’s exactly what it has done, but social mood has entered wave c of a Supercycle-degree decline, and voters are likely to become far less complacent, and more belligerent, than they have been for the past 76 years.

An early hint of the public’s reaction comes in the form of news reports. In my lifetime, I can hardly remember times when the media questioned benevolent-sounding actions of the government. Articles were always about who the action would “help.” But many commentators have more accurately reported on the latest bailout. USA Today’s headline reads, “Taxpayers take on trillions of risk.” (9/8) This headline is stunning because of its accuracy. When the government bailed out Chrysler, no newspaper ran an equally accurate headline saying, “Congress assures long-run bankruptcy for GM and Ford.” They all talked about why it was a good thing. This time, realism and skepticism (at a later stage of the cycle it will be cynicism and outrage) attend the bailout. The Wall Street Journal’s “Market Watch” reports an overwhelmingly negative response among emailers. Local newspapers’ “Letters” sections publish comments of dismay and even outrage. CNBC’s Mark Haines, in an interview on 9/8 with MSNBC, began by saying ironically, “Isn’t socialism great?” This breadth of disgust is new, and it’s a reflection of emerging negative social mood.

Social mood trends arise from mental states and lead to social actions and events. Deflation is a social event. Ultimately, social mood will determine whether deflation occurs or not. When voters become angry enough, Congressmen will stop flinging pork at all comers. Now the automakers want a bailout. Voters have remained complacent about it so far, but this benign attitude won’t last. The day the government capitulates and announces that it can’t bail out everyone is the day deflationary psychology will have won out.

……….

For more on deflation, download Prechter’s FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook or browse various deflation topics like those below at www.elliottwave.com/deflation.

* What happens during deflation?
* Can the Fed stop deflation?
* Why is deflation bad?
* Inflation vs. deflation
* And much more in Prechter’s FREE Deflation Survival Guide.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

Chicago Tea Party

2009-02-19T09:54:00.001-08:00

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1929, 1933, And Today

2009-02-10T15:53:00.000-08:00

S&P 500 Index 3Day Candlestick Chart w/Linear Regression (click to enlarge)

Dow Jones Industrial Average 3Day Candlestick Chart w/Linear Regression (click to enlarge)

Dow Jones Industrial Average 3Day 1929-1930 (click to enlarge)

Dow Jones Industrial Average 3Day 1929-1933 (click to enlarge)

Picking bottoms is a losing game, there is a lot of talk of 800 on the S&P 500 as being support, but that is just a number and not a significant number mathematically. In the chart above showing the DOW-30 in 1930, there looked to be a bottom, but it was a false bottom. No matter what the government solutions and ideas that come in the coming weeks and days, it is going to time to build a base and most likely lower lows are ahead. With lower lows in equities, will come higher trades in bonds, which mean lower rates...this is what the government wants. Higher Bonds and Higher Equities is not in the cards at this time, one is going to win....Bonds first, then equities down the road.

10 Things You Should and Should Not Do During Deflation

2009-02-10T14:04:00.000-08:00

February 10, 2009

This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter’s FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook, part of Prechter’s NEW Deflation Survival Guide.

The following article was adapted from Robert Prechter’s NEW Deflation Survival eBook, a free 60-page compilation of Prechter’s most important teachings and warnings about deflation.

By Robert Prechter, CMT

1) Should you invest in real estate?

Short Answer: NO

Long Answer: The worst thing about real estate is its lack of liquidity during a bear market. At least in the stock market, when your stock is down 60 percent and you realize you’ve made a horrendous mistake, you can call your broker and get out (unless you’re a mutual fund, insurance company or other institution with millions of shares, in which case, you’re stuck). With real estate, you can’t pick up the phone and sell. You need to find a buyer for your house in order to sell it. In a depression, buyers just go away. Mom and Pop move in with the kids, or the kids move in with Mom and Pop. People start living in their offices or moving their offices into their living quarters. Businesses close down. In time, there is a massive glut of real estate.

– Conquer the Crash, Chapter 16

2) Should you prepare for a change in politics?

Short Answer: YES

Long Answer: At some point during a financial crisis, money flows typically become a political issue. You should keep a sharp eye on political trends in your home country. In severe economic times, governments have been known to ban foreign investment, demand capital repatriation, outlaw money transfers abroad, close banks, freeze bank accounts, restrict or seize private pensions, raise taxes, fix prices and impose currency exchange values. They have been known to use force to change the course of who gets hurt and who is spared, which means that the prudent are punished and the thriftless are rewarded, reversing the result from what it would be according to who deserves to be spared or get hurt. In extreme cases, such as when authoritarians assume power, they simply appropriate or take de facto control of your property.
You cannot anticipate every possible law, regulation or political event that will be implemented to thwart your attempt at safety, liquidity and solvency. This is why you must plan ahead and pay attention. As you do, think about these issues so that when political forces troll for victims, you are legally outside the scope of the dragnet.

– Conquer the Crash, Chapter 27

3) Should you invest in commercial bonds?

Short Answer: NO

Long Answer: If there is one bit of conventional wisdom that we hear repeatedly with respect to investing for a deflationary depression, it is that long-term bonds are the best possible investment. This assertion is wrong. Any bond issued by a borrower who cannot pay goes to zero in a depression. In the Great Depression, bonds of many companies, municipalities and foreign governments were crushed. They became wallpaper as their issuers went bankrupt and defaulted. Bonds of suspect issuers also went way down, at least for a time. Understand that in a crash, no one knows its depth, and almost everyone becomes afraid. That makes investors sell bonds of any issuers that they fear could default. Even when people trust the bonds they own, they are sometimes forced to sell them to raise cash to live on. For this reason, even the safest bonds can go down, at least temporarily, as AAA bonds did in 1931 and 1932.

– Conquer the Crash, Chapter 15

4) Should you take precautions if you run a business?

Short Answer: YES

Long Answer: Avoid long-term employment contracts with employees. Try to locate in a state with “at-will” employment laws. Red tape and legal impediments to firing could bankrupt your company in a financial crunch, thus putting everyone in your company out of work.

If you run a business that normally carries a large business inventory (such as an auto or boat dealership), try to reduce it. If your business requires certain manufactured specialty items that may be hard to obtain in a depression, stock up.

If you are an employer, start making plans for what you will do if the company’s cash flow declines and you have to cut expenditures. Would it be best to fire certain people? Would it be better to adjust all salaries downward an equal percentage so that you can keep everyone employed?

Finally, plan how you will take advantage of the next major bottom in the economy. Positioning your company properly at that time could ensure success for decades to come.

– Conquer the Crash, Chapter 30

5) Should you invest in collectibles?

Short Answer: NO

Long Answer: Collecting for investment purposes is almost always foolish. Never buy anything marketed as a collectible. The chances of losing money when collectibility is priced into an item are huge. Usually, collecting trends are fads. They might be short-run or long-run fads, but they eventually dissolve.

– Conquer the Crash, Chapter 17

6) Should you do anything with respect to your employment?

Short Answer: YES

Long Answer: If you have no special reason to believe that the company you work for will prosper so much in a contracting economy that its stock will rise in a bear market, then cash out any stock or stock options that your company has issued to you (or that you bought on your own).

If your remuneration is tied to the same company’s fortunes in the form of stock or stock options, try to convert it to a liquid income stream. Make sure you get paid actual money for your labor.

If you have a choice of employment, try to think about which job will best weather the coming financial and economic storm. Then go get it.

– Conquer the Crash, Chapter 31

7) Should you speculate in stocks?

Short Answer: NO

Long Answer: Perhaps the number one precaution to take at the start of a deflationary crash is to make sure that your investment capital is not invested “long” in stocks, stock mutual funds, stock index futures, stock options or any other equity-based investment or speculation. That advice alone should be worth the time you [spend to read Conquer the Crash].

In 2000 and 2001, countless Internet stocks fell from $50 or $100 a share to near zero in a matter of months. In 2001, Enron went from $85 to pennies a share in less than a year. These are the early casualties of debt, leverage and incautious speculation.

– Conquer the Crash, Chapter 20

8) Should you call in loans and pay off your debt?

Short Answer: YES

Long Answer: Have you lent money to friends, relatives or co-workers? The odds of collecting any of these debts are usually slim to none, but if you can prod your personal debtors into paying you back before they get further strapped for cash, it will not only help you but it will also give you some additional wherewithal to help those very same people if they become destitute later.

If at all possible, remain or become debt-free. Being debt-free means that you are freer, period. You don’t have to sweat credit card payments. You don’t have to sweat home or auto repossession or loss of your business. You don’t have to work 6 percent more, or 10 percent more, or 18 percent more just to stay even.

– Conquer the Crash, Chapter 29

9) Should you invest in commodities, such as crude oil?

Short Answer: Mostly NO

Long Answer: Pay particular attention to what happened in 1929-1932, the three years of intense deflation in which the stock market crashed. As you can see, commodities crashed, too.

You can get rich being short commodity futures in a deflationary crash. This is a player’s game, though, and I am not about to urge a typical investor to follow that course. If you are a seasoned commodity trader, avoid the long side and use rallies to sell short. Make sure that your broker keeps your liquid funds in T-bills or an equally safe medium.

There can be exceptions to the broad trend. A commodity can rise against the trend on a war, a war scare, a shortage or a disruption of transport. Oil is an example of a commodity with that type of risk. This commodity should have nowhere to go but down during a depression.

– Conquer the Crash, Chapter 21

10) Should you invest in cash?

Short Answer: YES

Long Answer: For those among the public who have recently become concerned that being fully invested in one stock or stock fund is not risk-free, the analysts’ battle cry is “diversification.” They recommend having your assets spread out in numerous different stocks, numerous different stock funds and/or numerous different (foreign) stock markets. Advocates of junk bonds likewise counsel prospective investors that having lots of different issues will reduce risk.

This “strategy” is bogus. Why invest in anything unless you have a strong opinion about where it’s going and a game plan for when to get out? Diversification is gospel today because investment assets of so many kinds have gone up for so long, but the future is another matter. Owning an array of investments is financial suicide during deflation. They all go down, and the logistics of getting out of them can be a nightmare. There can be weird exceptions to this rule, such as gold in the early 1930s when the government fixed the price, or perhaps some commodity that is crucial in a war, but otherwise, all assets go down in price during deflation except one: cash.

– Conquer the Crash, Chapter 18

……….

For more on deflation, download Prechter’s FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook or browse various deflation topics like those below at www.elliottwave.com/deflation.

* What happens during deflation?
* Why is deflation bad?
* Effects of deflation
* Deflationary spiral
* And much more in Prechter’s FREE Deflation Survival Guide.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

February 9, 2009 S&P Mini Intraday Chart - Opening Range

2009-02-09T13:18:00.000-08:00

S&P Emini 3minute Chart w/opening range and extensions (click to enlarge)

Using Opening Ranges Intraday

2009-02-08T01:13:00.000-08:00

The opening range concept mentioned in the previous few posts can also be used intraday. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 Emini futures. The opening range is calculated using the high and the low of the first 15minutes of the day. To calculate the extensions you simply add the range to the high for the first 15minues, and subtract the range from the low of the first 15minutes.

S&P 500 Index Emini Futures 2/4/09(click to enlarge)

On days when there is not a strong momentum trend, these levels act like targets and support and resistance. Almost like they are magnets that prices are pulled to, even if it is for a short time.

Below is a chart of the Five Year Treasury Note Futures, again the prices seemed to be attracted to these levels.

5 Year Treasury Note Futures 2/4/09 (click to enlarge)

Opening Range with Linear Regressions

2009-02-08T00:52:00.000-08:00

The chart below is of the S&P 500 Index and has two sets of lines. The horizontal lines represent the opening range and its extension levels. The black lines define the opening range and the two red lines mark extensions off of this range. Once the market traded below the bottom of the opening range black line, the next target was one level down, the first red line. As the 800 level held, the market then tested this line a few times, and like last Friday, had a rally above it.

The downward sloping lines from left to right are the linear regression line and the corresponding standard deviations from this linear regression. Friday morning was an important morning in that the Unemployment Number was to be released at 8:30am eastern time. It was also important technically because the prices Thursday closed right that both the linear regression line and the first extension off of the opening range. Any trading above these lines accompanied by even the smallest amount of momentum, would lead to a strong short-covering rally and higher prices. The overall volume for the day was not very strong, so look for a choppy market next week. If Congress passes a stimulus bill, look for an opportunity to take profits on any rally and/or get short. Support should be around 840 for now, and resistance will be the lower part of the opening range, 890.

S&P 500 Index Futures Opening Range + Linear Regression (click to enlarge)

It is important to keep a longer term perspective and not get caught up in the hype of 200pt up days on the Dow 30. It seems like every positive day, experts on TV come out to say this is the start of the new bull market. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 Index. It is not a daily chart, but a three-day chart. Each candle represents 3 trading days. It clearly shows how small the rally was Friday in the big picture. It does also show that 800 looks to be holding strong, only time will tell how strong that 800 number is.

S&P 500 Index 3-Day Chart (click to enlarge)

S&P 500 Index 2009

2009-02-07T00:12:00.000-08:00

S&P 500 Index Opening Range Extensions 2009(click to enlarge)

S&P 500 Index % Stocks Above 40 Day Moving Average (click to enlarge)

After a 200+ up day on the DOW, it is amazing how all the "experts" on television begin talking about the next rally. It was not that long ago that the DOW moved 500 points in the last hour of trading, so it is important to keep things in perspective. There is still a lot of overhead resistance and no sign of up-days with significantly stronger volume.

On a percentage basis it is easy for Bank Of America and some of the regional banks to have incredible days, but that is only because they have fallen so far. Monday should be a key day. The Congress should have made some progress on what ever stimulus package they are going to pass, but more importantly the Treasury is going to explain its plan for the "Bad Bank" that will take on the rotten financial instruments that are causing so many problems. It will be important to follow the specifics of this plan. Chances are the plan that is introduced Monday will evolve over the coming days and weeks. The problem is still what to pay these banks for these assets.

One idea would be to take 180Billion out of the remaining Tarp pool, and start this "Bad Bank". With this starting capital, the bank could then additionally sell a type of preferred stock or bonds based on the initial capital and the questionable assets they will take on. This would give it a multiplier effect, and not limit the bank to the original investment from TARP.

Another factor that should be considered, is not to pay these banks for these assets, but to give them an equity stake in this "Bad Bank". They could claim this stake as an asset, and receive interest payments if it is structured as a type of preferred share. This would not give the banks the raw capital that some of them need to meet the re-lending requirement being put on them by the government, but it would give them a stake in the proceeds along with the tax payers who are fitting the bill. When was the last time the interests were aligned between investors and company in the banking industry?

Hopefully the "Bad Bank" will be structured to where the tax payers are not taking all the risk for an inappropriate percentage of the reward. If this deals starts to sound like the picture below, watch out for new lows in the market.

CEO of the Bad Bank...or maybe the new spokesperson for Citigroup?

***Update***
Geithner Delays Bank-Rescue Speech to Keep Focus on Stimulus

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner postponed his unveiling of the administration’s plan to shore up the financial industry as officials focus on getting approval for their separate economic stimulus plan in the Senate.

Tuesday????

--------------

The final installment of Elliott Wave International’s expansive NEW Deflation Survival eBook is online now. The free 60-page eBook is packed with Robert Prechter's most important teachings and warnings about deflation. This is one of the most valuable resources EWI has ever offered at no cost. Learn more below or download it now – for free.

NDX 100 2009

2009-02-06T22:28:00.000-08:00

Nasdaq 100 Index Opening Range Extensions 2009 (click to enlarge)

Some of the stronger component subgroups in technology.

SMH Semiconductor Holders Trust (click to enlarge)

BBH Biotech Holders Trust (click to enlarge)

Below are a couple of charts showing that it is possible to trade above the opening range.

GS Goldman Sachs 2009 Opening Range (click to enlarge)

U.S. Dollar Index 2009 Opening Range (click to enlarge)

Free Report

2009-02-02T10:20:00.000-08:00

Download The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read in 2009 - It's Free!

Do you know what to expect from the markets in 2009? Are you prepared to take advantage of the opportunities – and avoid the dangerous pitfalls – that you will face this year?

Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest market forecasting firm, has just released a free report that can help.

“The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read in 2009” gives you valuable, independent forecasts of stocks, bonds, metals, the U.S. dollar and economic trends that you can act on —not the conventional “connect-the-dots” analysis that does you no good. You’ll get hard facts, eye-opening charts, and straight-forward commentary to help you navigate the current market turmoil.

Elliott Wave International subscribers pay $19 a month to access this information in the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and consider it a bargain. But for a limited time you can read the full 10-page issue, FREE.

Don't delay. Your portfolio cannot afford to be without these valuable market insights.

Click Here to Get Your Free Report
------------------------------------
About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International

Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

How to Use Elliott Wave Analysis to Boost Your Forex Trading

2009-01-07T17:27:00.000-08:00

A Free Trading Video From the World's Largest Market Forecasting Firm

This video lesson features Elliott Wave International Senior Currency Analyst, Jim Martens, demonstrating how you can use Elliott wave analysis to identify opportunities in your Forex trading.

This is just a short excerpt. For a limited time, you can access the full $79 online trading course, FREE. Visit Elliott Wave International for your free access.

You'll get all the details behind the analysis you see in this video preview.

Watch this full $79 course, FREE. Click Here!

Linear Regression Charts

2008-12-22T03:38:00.000-08:00

These are some updated charts of the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index. Both indexes are shown in daily charts and 3-day charts.

S&P 500 Index 3 Day Chart (click to enlarge)

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart (click to enlarge)

In the first chart it is important to notice that the prices are starting to test the second standard deviation from the short term linear regression line(21 period). Any momentum above this level, could lead to a move up to the second standard deviation line from the medium term linear regression line(55 period). This is roughly the 970 area that was calculated in an earlier post.

This second daily chart shows a series of higher lows inside of the short term linear regression channel(21 day). At the same time prices are meeting resistance from the medium term linear regression upper channel line. If prices can stay above this channel(yellow line), it can act as support for a move up to the 940 area. There is still an overhang on the market, so any move higher should be scrutinized as to its volume and full participation across various other indexes. Commodities and Infrastructure related companies could be leaders in any move higher. It is still prudent to be skeptical and sell rallies.

Nasdaq 100 Index 3 Day Chart (click to enlarge)

Nasdaq 100 Index Daily Chart (click to enlarge)

Making Preparations and Taking Action in Today’s Deflationary Environment

2008-12-14T19:38:00.000-08:00

December 12, 2008

Editor’s Note: The following article is adapted from Robert Prechter’s 2002 best-selling book, Conquer the Crash – You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression.

In addition to this article, visit Elliott Wave International to download the free 15-page report about how to protect yourself, you wealth and your family in this environment. It contains details about what you should do with your pension plan, valuable tips for business owners, insights on handling loans and debt and important warnings against trusting the government to protect you.

By Robert Prechter, CMT

The ultimate effect of deflation is to reduce the supply of money and credit. Your goal is to make sure that it doesn’t reduce the supply of your money and credit. The ultimate effect of depression is financial ruin. Your goal is to make sure that it doesn’t ruin you.
Many investment advisors speak as if making money by investing is easy. It’s not. What’s easy is losing money, which is exactly what most investors do. They might make money for a while, but they lose eventually. Just keeping what you have over a lifetime of investing can be an achievement. That’s what this my book, Conquer the Crash, is designed to help you do, in perhaps the single most difficult financial environment that exists.

Protecting your liquid wealth against a deflationary crash and depression is pretty easy once you know what to do. Protecting your other assets and ensuring your livelihood can be serious challenges. Knowing how to proceed used to be the most difficult part of your task because almost no one writes about the issue. My book remedies that situation.

Preparing To Take the Right Actions

In a crash and depression, we will see stocks going down 90 percent and more, mutual funds collapsing, massive layoffs, high unemployment, corporate and municipal bankruptcies, bank and insurance company failures and ultimately financial and political crises. The average person, who has no inkling of the risks in the financial system, will be shocked that such things could happen, despite the fact that they have happened repeatedly throughout history.

Being unprepared will leave you vulnerable to a major disruption in your life. Being prepared will allow you to make exceptional profits both in the crash and in the ensuing recovery. For now, you should focus on making sure that you do not become a zombie-eyed victim of the depression.

Taking the Right Actions

Countless advisors have touted “stocks only,” “gold only,” “diversification,” a “balanced portfolio” and other end-all solutions to the problem of attending to your investments. These approaches are usually delusions. As I try to make clear in Conquer the Crash, no investment strategy will provide stability forever. You will have to be nimble enough to see major trends coming and make changes accordingly.

The main goal of investing in a crash environment is safety. When deflation looms, almost every investment category becomes associated with immense risks. Most investors have no idea of these risks and will think you are a fool for taking precautions.
Many readers will object to taking certain prudent actions because of the presumed cost. For example: “I can’t take a profit; I’ll have to pay taxes!” My reply is, if you don’t want to pay taxes, well, you’ll get your wish; your profit will turn into a loss, and you won’t have to pay any taxes. Or they say, “I can’t sell my stocks for cash; interest rates are only 2 percent!” My reply is, if you can’t abide a 2 percent annual gain, well, you’ll get your wish there, too; you’ll have a 30 percent annual loss instead. Others say, “I can’t cash out my retirement plan; there’s a penalty!” I reply, take your money out before there is none to get. Then there is the venerable, “I can’t sell now; I’d be taking a loss!” I say no, you are recovering some capital that you can put to better use. My advice always is, make the right move, and the costs will take care of themselves.

If you are preoccupied with pedestrian concerns or blithely going along with mainstream opinions, you need to wake up now, while there is still time, and actively take charge of your personal finances. First you must make your capital, your person and your family safe. Then you can explore options for making money during the crash and especially after it’s over.
…………….

For more information, Prechter has made five full chapters from his book available for free download.
• What to do with your pension plan
• How to identify a safe haven (a safe place for your family)
• What should you do if you run a business
• Calling in loans and paying off debt
• Should you rely on the government to protect you?

Robert Prechter, Certified Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

I.O.U.S.A.

2008-12-08T09:40:00.000-08:00

The makers of I.O.U.S.A. have created a free 30 minute version of their movie that not only discusses how this crisis began, it also foreshadows the impending retirement crisis. I encourage you to invest thirty minutes of your time to watch this video and share it amongst friends and colleagues who are also struggling to find answers to some very complex questions we have all been asking ourselves.

30 Minute Video Link

The Government Doesn’t Want You to Read This Article About the Financial Crisis

2008-12-04T04:14:00.000-08:00

Editor’s Note: This article has been excerpted from a free issue of Robert Prechter’s monthly market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist.

The full 10-page market letter, Be One of the Few The Government Hasn’t Fooled, can be downloaded free from Elliott Wave International.

By Robert Prechter, CMT

“Who Will Benefit From The Housing Act?”

This question is an actual headline from a national daily paper. The real answer is: mortgage lending corporations, developers, real estate agents, speculators and politicians. The government is also pledging tax money to providers of “financial counseling” and grants for speculators who want to “buy and renovate foreclosed housing”; in other words, it will hand tax money to charlatans and unfunded wheeler-dealers. But a far better headline would have been, “Whom Will the Housing Act Hurt?” The answer to that question is: (1) prudent people, i.e. savers, earners, renters and people who have waited to buy a house at a reasonable price; and (2) innocent people, i.e. taxpayers.

Government action (unless it is aimed at destruction) always causes the opposite of its stated effect. If taxpayers ultimately have to shoulder the burden for all the bad mortgage debt, those who are on the edge of being able to make their mortgage payments will be forced over the edge, causing more missed mortgage payments and more foreclosures.

There is never any need for a law granting privilege except when the goal is to reward the undeserving and to punish the innocent. If the goal were otherwise, there would be no need for a statutory law, because the natural laws of economics, when unencumbered, serve to reward the deserving and punish the imprudent and the guilty. Populists loudly challenge this idea, but they are wrong.

I thought the Fed was created to “help manage the economy.”

After a secret meeting on Jekyll Island (GA), Congress and a handful of bankers created the Federal Reserve System for two purposes. The first one was to allow the government to counterfeit money, thereby letting it steal value from savers through inflation. The second was to allow bankers to make profits through debt creation, also at the expense of savers. Any other claim is a smokescreen.

So shouldn’t we blame the Fed for the country’s financial problems?

That’s like blaming the collapse of your house on the biggest termite. The Fed is only one of the monsters that Congress has created. In the financial realm, others include Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Sallie Mae, the FDIC, the FHA, the FHLBs and the income tax. But there are also a hundred other havoc-wreaking agencies of the federal government. Congress is to blame for ruining America. The Fed is only one of the mechanisms it created along the way. It’s a big one, and it’s fine to campaign against it, but to blame it for everything is to give its creator a free pass.

This is an important distinction, because many people seem to think that abolishing the Fed will cure America’s money woes. They seem to think that once the Fed is abolished, Congress will behave responsibly. One website even calls for abolishing the Fed in favor of giving money-printing power directly to the federal government! Abolishing the Fed is a worthy goal, but Congress will work tirelessly to create one disastrous institution after another, because that’s what campaign donors pay for.

For more information on the government’s role in the financial crisis, download Robert Prechter’s free 10-page market letter, Be One of the Few the Government Hasn’t Fooled.

Robert Prechter, Certified Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

Sample Linear Regression Charts

2008-11-25T23:39:00.000-08:00

S&P 500 Index 50 day linear regression with 2 standard deviations(click to enlarge)

NDX 100 Index (click to enlarge)

Dow Jones Industrial Avg. (click to enlarge)

U.S. Dollar Index (Click to enlarge)

These charts are generic charts of the three major equity indexes and the U.S. Dollar Index. After the strong rally starting last Friday, equities in general are approaching the upper 2 standard deviation line. This does not mean that prices will stop there, it does mean that crossing that line will show how much momentum there is at that level. If it is weak volume, expect prices to retreat back to the linear regression line.

The U.S. Dollar Index is outside the 2 standard deviation line below the linear regression. This shows the extreme move over the past two days has reached an extreme. It is important to watch the next day or so and how prices act as they rally back to the 2 standard deviation line. A weak rally followed by a failure to re-establish prices inside the channel will point to a change in trend.